{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,29]],"date-time":"2026-08-29T18:46:47Z","timestamp":1788029207592,"version":"build-2784847793"},"reference-count":29,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"14","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,7,26]],"date-time":"2016-07-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1469491200000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/terms"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>SUMMARY<\/jats:title><jats:p>Dengue is the world's most prevalent mosquito-borne disease, with more than 200 million people each year becoming infected. We used a mechanistic virus transmission model to determine whether climate warming would change dengue transmission in Australia. Using two climate models each with two carbon emission scenarios, we calculated future dengue epidemic potential for the period 2046\u20132064. Using the ECHAM5 model, decreased dengue transmission was predicted under the A2 carbon emission scenario, whereas some increases are likely under the B1 scenario. Dengue epidemic potential may decrease under climate warming due to mosquito breeding sites becoming drier and mosquito survivorship declining. These results contradict most previous studies that use correlative models to show increased dengue transmission under climate warming. Dengue epidemiology is determined by a complex interplay between climatic, human host, and pathogen factors. It is therefore naive to assume a simple relationship between climate and incidence, and incorrect to state that climate warming will uniformly increase dengue transmission, although in general the health impacts of climate change will be negative.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s095026881600162x","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,7,26]],"date-time":"2016-07-26T10:15:57Z","timestamp":1469528157000},"page":"3091-3100","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":27,"title":["Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"144","author":[{"given":"C. R.","family":"WILLIAMS","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"G.","family":"MINCHAM","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"H.","family":"FADDY","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"E.","family":"VIENNET","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"S. A.","family":"RITCHIE","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"D.","family":"HARLEY","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,7,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.1995.53.489"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(02)09964-6"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S095026881400380X"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1756-3305-7-379"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10393-012-0808-0"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref2","unstructured":"World Health Organization. Impact of dengue (http:\/\/www.who.int\/csr\/disease\/dengue\/impact\/en\/). Accessed 29 August 2013."},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.1997.57.285"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0089783"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref19","first-page":"32","article-title":"Outbreaks of dengue in North Queensland 1990\u20132008","volume":"33","author":"Hanna","year":"2009","journal-title":"Communicable Diseases Intelligence"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.3500"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000920"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref7","first-page":"54","article-title":"Climate variability and the dengue outbreak in Townsville, Queensland, 1992\u201393","volume":"1","author":"Bi","year":"2001","journal-title":"Environmental Health"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1264","DOI":"10.1289\/ehp.1306556","article-title":"Climate and dengue transmission: evidence and implications","volume":"121","author":"Morin","year":"2013","journal-title":"Environmental Health Perspectives"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature04188"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsoft.2008.07.007"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1905.121664"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0001470"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2012.11-0451"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(06)68079-3"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref4","first-page":"E55","article-title":"Increasing notifications of dengue in Australia related to overseas travel, 1991 to 2012","volume":"37","author":"Knope","year":"2013","journal-title":"Communicable Diseases Intelligence"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature10356"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/45.6.1173"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000922"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref6","unstructured":"IPCC. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team, R. K. Pachauri and L. A. Meyer , eds). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 2014, 151 pp."},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/trf.12944"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"265","DOI":"10.5694\/j.1326-5377.2009.tb02393.x","article-title":"Dengue and climate change in Australia: predictions for the future should incorporate knowledge from the past","volume":"190","author":"Russell","year":"2009","journal-title":"Medical Journal of Australia"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref21","volume-title":"The Epidemiology and Control of Malaria","author":"Macdonald","year":"1957"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1756-3305-7-447"},{"key":"S095026881600162X_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature12060"}],"container-title":["Epidemiology and Infection"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S095026881600162X","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2020,9,24]],"date-time":"2020-09-24T09:37:37Z","timestamp":1600940257000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S095026881600162X\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2016,7,26]]},"references-count":29,"journal-issue":{"issue":"14","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,10]]}},"alternative-id":["S095026881600162X"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s095026881600162x","relation":{},"ISSN":["0950-2688","1469-4409"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0950-2688","type":"print"},{"value":"1469-4409","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2016,7,26]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Copyright \u00a9 Cambridge University Press 2016\u00a0","name":"license","label":"License","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}}]}}