{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,29]],"date-time":"2026-10-29T02:03:50Z","timestamp":1793239430792,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"15","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,8,1]],"date-time":"2016-08-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1470009600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>SUMMARY<\/jats:title><jats:p>Despite the availability of inexpensive antimicrobial treatment, syphilis remains prevalent worldwide, affecting millions of individuals. Furthermore, syphilis infection is suspected of increasing both susceptibility to, and tendency to transmit, HIV. Development of a syphilis vaccine would be a potentially promising step towards control, but the value of dedicating resources to vaccine development should be evaluated in the context of the anticipated benefits. Here, we use a detailed mathematical model to explore the potential impact of rolling out a hypothetical syphilis vaccine on morbidity from both syphilis and HIV and compare it to the impact of expanded \u2018screen and treat\u2019 programmes using existing treatments. Our results suggest that an efficacious vaccine has the potential to sharply reduce syphilis prevalence under a wide range of scenarios, while expanded treatment interventions are likely to be substantially less effective. Our modelled interventions in our simulated study populations are expected to have little effect on HIV, and in some scenarios lead to small increases in HIV incidence, suggesting that interventions against syphilis should be accompanied with interventions against other sexually transmitted infections to prevent the possibility that lower morbidity or lower perceived risk from syphilis could lead to increases in other sexually transmitted diseases.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268816001643","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,8,1]],"date-time":"2016-08-01T08:01:30Z","timestamp":1470038490000},"page":"3244-3252","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":16,"title":["Epidemiological impact of a syphilis vaccine: a simulation study"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"144","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7090-8757","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"D.","family":"CHAMPREDON","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"C. E.","family":"CAMERON","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"M.","family":"SMIEJA","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"J.","family":"DUSHOFF","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,8,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa0800260"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001396"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref24","unstructured":"CDC. Sexually transmitted disease surveillance 2014, pp. 1\u2013177, 2015."},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref17","unstructured":"CDC. Syphilis elimination communication plan, pp. 1\u201323, 2001."},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref14","first-page":"594","article-title":"Brief report: HIV-1 transmissions during asymptomatic infection: exploring the impact of changes in HIV-1 viral load due to coinfections","volume":"68","author":"Baggaley","year":"2015","journal-title":"Journal of AIDS"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/OLQ.0b013e3181812d15"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jcpa.2009.10.021"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(98)06439-3"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/01.aids.0000390704.35642.47"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref19","unstructured":"WHO. The global elimination of congenital syphilis: rationale and strategy for action, pp. 1\u201346. WHO, 2007."},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(08)70065-3"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(09)70021-0"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00002030-200107270-00012"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00002030-200410210-00012"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00007435-200005000-00001"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref1","unstructured":"WHO. Investment case for eliminating mother-to-child transmission of syphilis, pp. 1\u201340. WHO, 2012."},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(95)91380-7"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/sti.2010.047514"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/CMR.19.1.29-49.2006"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref27","first-page":"98","article-title":"Seroprevalence and incidence of genital ulcer infections in a rural Ugandan population","volume":"75","author":"Kamali","year":"1999","journal-title":"Genitourinary Medicine"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref2","unstructured":"WHO. Prevalence and incidence of selected sexually transmitted infections, pp. 1\u201338. WHO, 2011."},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00007435-200110000-00005"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0040102"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/sti.2005.015040"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/sti.75.1.3"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.291.21.2555"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1206","DOI":"10.4049\/jimmunol.110.5.1206","article-title":"Immunity in experimental syphilis VI. Successful vaccination of rabbits with Treponema pallidum, Nichols strain, attenuated by \u03b3-irradiation","volume":"110","author":"Miller","year":"1973","journal-title":"Journal of Immunology"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(08)60920-4"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/01.olq.0000154504.54686.d1"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2014.01.053"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-015-0961-5"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2013.09.053"},{"key":"S0950268816001643_ref18","unstructured":"CDC. The national plan to eliminate syphilis from the United States, pp. 1\u201366, 2006."}],"container-title":["Epidemiology and Infection"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0950268816001643","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,19]],"date-time":"2023-08-19T12:29:56Z","timestamp":1692448196000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0950268816001643\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2016,8,1]]},"references-count":33,"journal-issue":{"issue":"15","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,11]]}},"alternative-id":["S0950268816001643"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0950268816001643","relation":{},"ISSN":["0950-2688","1469-4409"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0950-2688","type":"print"},{"value":"1469-4409","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2016,8,1]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Copyright \u00a9 Cambridge University Press 2016\u00a0This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.","name":"license","label":"License","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}}]}}