{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,1]],"date-time":"2026-07-01T14:25:43Z","timestamp":1782915943306,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,9,9]],"date-time":"2016-09-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1473379200000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>SUMMARY<\/jats:title><jats:p>The depopulation of Pacific islands during the 16th to 19th centuries is a striking example of historical mass mortality due to infectious disease. Pacific Island populations have not been subject to such cataclysmic infectious disease mortality since. Here we explore the processes which could have given rise to this shift in infectious disease mortality patterns. We show, using mathematical models, that the population dynamics exhibited by Pacific Island populations are unlikely to be the result of Darwinian evolution. We propose that extreme mortality during first-contact epidemics is a function of epidemiological isolation, not a lack of previous selection. If, as pathogens become established in populations, extreme mortality is rapidly suppressed by herd immunity, Pacific Island population mortality patterns can be explained with no need to invoke genetic change. We discuss the mechanisms by which this could occur, including (i) a link between the proportion of the population transmitting infectious agents and case-fatality rates, and (ii) the course of infection with pathogens such as measles and smallpox being more severe in adults than in children. Overall, we consider the present-day risk of mass mortality from newly emerging infectious diseases is unlikely to be greater on Pacific islands than in other geographical areas.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268816001989","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,9,9]],"date-time":"2016-09-09T09:24:56Z","timestamp":1473413096000},"page":"1-11","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":21,"title":["Rapid mortality transition of Pacific Islands in the 19th century"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"145","author":[{"given":"B. S.","family":"PENMAN","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"S.","family":"GUPTA","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"G. D.","family":"SHANKS","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,9,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwq504"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref27","first-page":"102","article-title":"Historical epidemiology in Papua New Guinea","volume":"20","author":"Scragg","year":"1977","journal-title":"Papua New Guinea Medical Journal"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"127","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.1890160205","article-title":"An epidemic of influenza in the population of Niue","volume":"16","author":"Taylor","year":"1985","journal-title":"Journal of Medical Virology"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268812000866"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Penman B , Epistatic interactions between genetic disorders of hemoglobin can explain why the sickle cell gene is uncommon in the Mediterranean. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 2009; 106: 21242\u201321246.","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0910840106"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref46","author":"Eason","year":"1951","journal-title":"A Short History of Rotuma"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref15","volume-title":"The Spread of Measles in Fiji and the Pacific","author":"Cliff","year":"1985"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref22","first-page":"317","article-title":"Survey of measles patterns in New Guinea, Micronesia and Australia. With a report of new virgin soil epidemics and the demonstration of susceptible primitive populations by serology","volume":"77","author":"Adels","year":"1963","journal-title":"American Journal of Hygiene"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature03063"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref34","first-page":"275","volume-title":"Biological Consequences of European Expansion 1450\u20131800: Variorum","author":"Campbell","year":"1997"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref26","first-page":"101","article-title":"Influenza deaths in Hawaii, 1918\u20131920","volume":"33","author":"Schmitt","year":"1999","journal-title":"Hawaiian Journal of History"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref5","first-page":"1318","article-title":"Heredity and disease","volume":"2","author":"Reid","year":"1912","journal-title":"British Medical Journal"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref19","first-page":"119","article-title":"Measles in Fiji, 1875: thoughts on the history of emerging infectious diseases","volume":"5","author":"Morens","year":"1981","journal-title":"Pacific Health Dialog"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2435085100"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/annotation\/cbdd11a0-4a29-4e7c-9e4e-c00a184c7777"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cub.2009.12.004"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/649540"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1801.110035"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0022172400042078"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref28","unstructured":"Spennemann D . Epidemics recorded for the southern Marshall Islands 1887\u20131943. 2000 (http:\/\/marshall.csu.edu.au\/Marshalls\/html\/health\/epidemics.html). Accessed 8 September 2011."},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref32","first-page":"180","article-title":"Influenza in the Pacific","volume":"53","author":"Kelso","year":"2010","journal-title":"Papua New Guinea Medical Journal"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/414748a"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198288954.001.0001","volume-title":"Island Epidemics","author":"Cliff","year":"2000"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref21","first-page":"82","article-title":"Measles epidemic in Fiji during 1903","volume":"8","author":"Lynch","year":"1905","journal-title":"Journal of Tropical Medicine"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.1.1688.982-c"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/4590560"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1599","DOI":"10.1093\/genetics\/161.4.1599","article-title":"Historical intensity of natural selection for resistance to tuberculosis","volume":"161","author":"Lipsitch","year":"2002","journal-title":"Genetics"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref10","first-page":"359","article-title":"The Okuu \u2013 Hawaii's greatest epidemic","volume":"29","author":"Schmitt","year":"1970","journal-title":"Hawaiian Medical Journal"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref33","volume-title":"Smallpox and its Eradication","author":"Fenner","year":"1988"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.7063839"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref8","first-page":"76","article-title":"The behaviour of certain epidemic diseases in natives of Polynesia with especial reference to the Fiji Islands","volume":"3","author":"Corney","year":"1884","journal-title":"Transactions of the Epidemiological Society of London"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.1.1742.1077"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.55.1413.90"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0950-3536(98)80069-3"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1515\/9780824864767","volume-title":"The Growth and Collapse of Pacific Island Societies","author":"Kirch","year":"2007"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref9","volume-title":"History of the Hawaiian or Sandwich Islands","author":"Jarves","year":"1842"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1750-2659.2011.00332.x"},{"key":"S0950268816001989_ref11","first-page":"343","article-title":"An epidemic 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Cambridge University Press 2016\u00a0This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.","name":"license","label":"License","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}}]}}