{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,17]],"date-time":"2026-09-17T15:11:39Z","timestamp":1789657899635,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":77,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,2,7]],"date-time":"2017-02-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1486425600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/terms"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>SUMMARY<\/jats:title><jats:p>Phenomenological and mechanistic models are widely used to assist resource planning for pandemics and emerging infections. We conducted a systematic review, to compare methods and outputs of published phenomenological and mechanistic modelling studies pertaining to the 2013\u20132016 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemics in four West African countries \u2013 Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea and Nigeria. We searched Pubmed, Embase and Scopus databases for relevant English language publications up to December 2015. Of the 874 articles identified, 41 met our inclusion criteria. We evaluated these selected studies based on: the sources of the case data used, and modelling approaches, compartments used, population mixing assumptions, model fitting and calibration approaches, sensitivity analysis used and data bias considerations. We synthesised results of the estimated epidemiological parameters: basic reproductive number (<jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic><jats:sub>0<\/jats:sub>), serial interval, latent period, infectious period and case fatality rate, and examined their relationships. The median of the estimated mean <jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic><jats:sub>0<\/jats:sub> values were between 1\u00b730 and 1\u00b784 in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea. Much higher <jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic><jats:sub>0<\/jats:sub> value of 9\u00b701 was described for Nigeria. We investigated several issues with uncertainty around EVD modes of transmission, and unknown observation biases from early reported case data. We found that epidemic models offered <jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic><jats:sub>0<\/jats:sub> mean estimates which are country-specific, but these estimates are not associating with the use of several key disease parameters within the plausible ranges. We find simple models generally yielded similar estimates of <jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic><jats:sub>0<\/jats:sub> compared with more complex models. Models that accounted for data uncertainty issues have offered a higher case forecast compared with actual case observation. Simple model which offers transparency to public health policy makers could play a critical role for advising rapid policy decisions under an epidemic emergency.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268817000164","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,2,7]],"date-time":"2017-02-07T09:15:07Z","timestamp":1486458907000},"page":"1069-1094","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":36,"title":["A systematic review of early modelling studies of Ebola virus disease in West Africa"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"145","author":[{"given":"Z. S. Y.","family":"WONG","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"C. M.","family":"BUI","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"A. A.","family":"CHUGHTAI","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"C. R.","family":"MACINTYRE","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,2,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1508814112"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref56","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1155\/2015\/207105"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref69","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268816000054"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref62","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0129179"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref70","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/514291"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref68","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2015.12.011"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1260612"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(14)71074-6"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2458-14-147"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s40249-015-0043-3"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Keeling MJ . Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals. In: Rohani P , ed. Woodstock: Princeton University Press, 2008, 10\u201311,43.","DOI":"10.1515\/9781400841035"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref63","article-title":"A model of the 2014 Ebola epidemic in West Africa with contact tracing","volume":"7","author":"Webb","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS Currents"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref66","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.meegid.2011.08.005"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref72","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.2.6086.541"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref37","article-title":"A three-scale network model for the early growth dynamics of 2014 west Africa Ebola epidemic","volume":"6","author":"Kiskowski","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS Currents"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.09186"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep08751"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijsu.2010.02.007"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref58","article-title":"Modeling the impact of interventions on an epidemic of Ebola in Sierra Leone and Liberia","volume":"6","author":"Rivers","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS Currents"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/M14-2255"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref48","article-title":"Projected treatment capacity needs in Sierra Leone","volume":"7","author":"White","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS Currents"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"319","DOI":"10.12688\/f1000research.5941.1","article-title":"Dynamics of Ebola epidemics in West Africa 2014","volume":"3","author":"Evans","year":"2014","journal-title":"F1000Research"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1155\/2015\/582625"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES2014.19.40.20920"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref65","volume-title":"An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling","author":"Vynnycky","year":"2010"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref75","first-page":"479","article-title":"Possible sexual transmission of Ebola virus \u2013 Liberia, 2015","volume":"64","author":"Christie","year":"2015","journal-title":"MMWR Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref54","article-title":"Early epidemic dynamics of the West African 2014 Ebola outbreak: estimates derived with a simple two-parameter model","volume":"6","author":"Fisman","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS Currents"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref21","unstructured":"Agency CI. The World Factbook 2016 [cited 2016 Nov 18]. (https:\/\/www.cia.gov\/library\/publications\/the-world-factbook\/)."},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref59","article-title":"Inference and forecast of the current west African Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia","volume":"6","author":"Shaman","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS Currents"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref26","article-title":"Estimating the reproduction number of Ebola virus (EBOV) during the 2014 outbreak in West Africa","volume":"6","author":"Althaus","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS Currents"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2006.3754"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref61","article-title":"Modeling the 2014 Ebola virus epidemic \u2013 agent-based simulations, temporal analysis and future predictions for Liberia and Sierra Leone","volume":"7","author":"Siettos","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS Currents"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref57","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES2014.19.36.20894"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref22","unstructured":"Nations U. Population Division 2016 [cited 2016 Nov 18]. (http:\/\/www.un.org\/en\/development\/desa\/population\/)."},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2108.141613"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s13662-015-0613-5"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref50","article-title":"Is West Africa approaching a Catastrophic phase or is the 2014 Ebola Epidemic slowing down? Different models yield different answers for Liberia","volume":"6","author":"Chowell","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS Currents"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2014.04.003"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref55","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(14)70995-8"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref29","article-title":"Assessing the international spreading risk associated with the 2014 West African Ebola outbreak","volume":"6","author":"Gomes","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS Currents"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2015.08.004"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref77","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsbl.2015.1079"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"9","DOI":"10.11604\/pamj.supp.2015.22.1.6190","article-title":"The impact of traditional and religious practices on the spread of Ebola in West Africa: time for a strategic shift","volume":"22","author":"Manguvo","year":"2015","journal-title":"Pan African Medical Journal"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref19","unstructured":"Data for the 2014 ebola outbeak in West Africa 2016 [cited 2016 Nov 18]. (https:\/\/github.com\/cmrivers\/ebola)."},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref73","first-page":"S28","article-title":"Clinical, virologic, and immunologic follow-up of convalescent Ebola hemorrhagic fever patients and their household contacts, Kikwit, Democratic Republic of the Congo","volume":"179","author":"Rowe","year":"1999","journal-title":"Commission de Lutte contre les Epidemies a Kikwit. The Journal of Infectious Diseases"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref71","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1411677"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0140810"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref2","unstructured":"World Health Organization. Latest Ebola outbreak over in Liberia; West Africa is at zero, but new flare-ups are likely to occur: World Health Organization; 2016. [cited 2016 18 Jan]. (http:\/\/who.int\/mediacentre\/news\/releases\/2016\/ebola-zero-liberia\/en\/)."},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref1","unstructured":"World Health Organization. Ebola Situation Reports. World Health Organization, 2016 [cited 2016 18 Jan]. (http:\/\/apps.who.int\/ebola\/ebola-situation-reports)."},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref17","unstructured":"Ministry of Health and Sanitation TRoSL. Ebola Situation Report 2016 [cited 2016 Nov 18]. (http:\/\/health.gov.sl\/?page_id=583)."},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref60","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep15818"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref49","article-title":"Temporal changes in Ebola transmission in Sierra Leone and implications for control requirements: a real-time modelling study","volume":"7","author":"Camacho","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS Currents"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2015.03.001"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-015-0524-z"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep12172"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref67","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001103"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref9","first-page":"1","article-title":"Estimating the future number of cases in the Ebola epidemic \u2013 Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014\u20132015","volume":"63","author":"Meltzer","year":"2014","journal-title":"Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report Surveillance Summaries (Washington, DC: 2002)"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268806007217"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref47","article-title":"The role of social mobilization in controlling Ebola virus in Lofa County, Liberia","volume":"7","author":"Fast","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS Currents"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pbio.1002056"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref20","unstructured":"blog Vs. Ebola virus disease (EVD) 2014 West African outbreak 2016 [cited 2016 Nov 18]. (http:\/\/virologydownunder.blogspot.jp\/2014\/07\/ebola-virus-disease-evd-2014-west.html)."},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-015-0318-3"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0131398"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1411100"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00178324"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref76","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0004676"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref18","unstructured":"(MMWR). MaMWR. Current weekly 2016 [cited 2016 Nov 18]. (http:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/mmwr\/index.html)."},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/427994"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(00)02405-3"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(14)61839-0"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2004.03.006"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2015.12.011"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref74","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1409838"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwg251"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.meegid.2015.09.003"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref53","article-title":"Projected impact of vaccination timing and dose availability on the course of the 2014 West African Ebola Epidemic","volume":"6","author":"Fisman","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS Currents"},{"key":"S0950268817000164_ref64","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMc1414992"}],"updated-by":[{"DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268817000759","type":"correction","label":"Correction","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2017,4,20]],"date-time":"2017-04-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1492646400000}}],"container-title":["Epidemiology and Infection"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0950268817000164","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,7]],"date-time":"2021-09-07T11:59:00Z","timestamp":1631015940000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0950268817000164\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2017,2,7]]},"references-count":77,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,4]]}},"alternative-id":["S0950268817000164"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0950268817000164","relation":{},"ISSN":["0950-2688","1469-4409"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0950-2688","type":"print"},{"value":"1469-4409","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2017,2,7]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Copyright \u00a9 Cambridge University Press 2017\u00a0","name":"license","label":"License","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}}]}}