{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,31]],"date-time":"2026-10-31T15:13:47Z","timestamp":1793459627297,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":29,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,5,21]],"date-time":"2018-05-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1526860800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2018,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Rabies was eliminated from Japan in 1957. In the 60 years since elimination, vaccination coverage has declined and dog ownership habits have changed. The purpose of this study was to assess the current risk of rabies spread in Japan. A spatially explicit transmission model was developed at the 1 km<jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup> grid scale for Hokkaido and Ibaraki Prefectures. Parameters associated with dog movement and bite injuries were estimated using historical records from Japan, and were used with previously published epidemiological parameters. The final epidemic size, efficacy of rabies contingency plans and the influence of dog owner responses to incursions were assessed by the model. Average outbreak sizes for dog rabies were 3.1 and 4.7 dogs in Hokkaido and Ibaraki Prefectures, respectively. Average number of bite injury cases were 4.4 and 6.7 persons in Hokkaido and Ibaraki Prefectures, respectively. Discontinuation of mandatory vaccination increased outbreak sizes in these prefectures. Sensitivity analyses showed that higher chance of unintentional release of rabid dogs by their owners (from 0.5 to 0.9 probability) increased outbreak size twofolds. Our model outputs suggested that at present, incursions of rabies into Japan are very unlikely to cause large outbreaks. Critically, the reaction of dog owners to their dogs developing rabies considerably impacts the course of outbreaks. Contingency measures should therefore include sensitisation of dog owners.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268818001267","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,5,21]],"date-time":"2018-05-21T05:32:45Z","timestamp":1526880765000},"page":"1245-1252","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":28,"title":["The risk of rabies spread in Japan: a mathematical modelling assessment"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"146","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3898-0433","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"H.","family":"Kadowaki","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"K.","family":"Hampson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"K.","family":"Tojinbara","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"A.","family":"Yamada","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0181-0246","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"K.","family":"Makita","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,5,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2016.04.015"},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1904.120380"},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref3","first-page":"707","volume-title":"Rabies: Scientific Basis of the Disease and its Management","author":"Knobel","year":"2013"},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.042400799"},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2012.09.011"},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref25","unstructured":"AUSVETPLAN Disease Strategy Rabies. https:\/\/www.animalhealthaustralia.com.au\/our-publications\/ausvetplan-manuals-and-documents\/ (Accessed 11 October 2016)."},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0002372"},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cimid.2012.10.008"},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref16","volume-title":"Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide","author":"Vose","year":"2008"},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pbio.1000053"},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0030099"},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1612.100958"},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tmaid.2007.06.003"},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0003709"},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref20","article-title":"Surveillance to establish elimination of transmission and freedom from dog-mediated rabies","author":"Hampson","year":"2016","journal-title":"bioRxiv"},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0005435","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0005435","article-title":"The rise and fall of rabies in Japan: a quantitative history of rabies epidemics in Osaka Prefecture, 1914-1933","volume":"11","author":"Kurosawa","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases"},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref12","unstructured":"The internet survey for pet ownership in Japan. (http:\/\/www.petfood.or.jp\/data\/chart2010\/.html) (Accessed 11 October 2016)."},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref22","unstructured":"VMD position paper on authorized vaccination schedules for dogs. https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/uploads\/system\/uploads\/attachment_data\/file\/485325\/Vaccines_VMDPositionPapaer.pdf (Accessed 11 October 2016)."},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2656.2012.02033.x"},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref11","unstructured":"The numbers of registered and vaccinated dogs by Prefecture in Japan (2009\u20132014) [cited 2016 Oct 11]. (http:\/\/www.mhlw.go.jp\/bunya\/kenkou\/kekkaku-kansenshou10\/01.html) (Accessed 11 October 2016)."},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.1965.03090050039010"},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(02)00287-6"},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref9","unstructured":"The number of dogs and cats which were taken charge of and captured in Japan (1994\u20132014) [cited 2016 October 11]. (https:\/\/www.env.go.jp\/nature\/dobutsu\/aigo\/2_data\/statistics\/dog-cat.html). (Accessed 11 October 2016)."},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref10","unstructured":"The numbers of registered and vaccinated dogs by fiscal year in Japan (1960\u20132014). (http:\/\/www.mhlw.go.jp\/bunya\/kenkou\/kekkaku-kansenshou10\/02.html). (Accessed 11 October 2016)."},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref27","first-page":"304","article-title":"Estimating human rabies mortality in the United Republic of Tanzania from dog bite injuries","volume":"80","author":"Cleaveland","year":"2002","journal-title":"Bulletin of the World Health Organization"},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref18","unstructured":"R: A language and environment for statistical computing. (https:\/\/www.R-project.org\/) (Accessed October 2016)."},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref14","unstructured":"National census population statistics in 1920 [cited 2016 October 11]. (http:\/\/www.e-stat.go.jp\/SG1\/estat\/GL08020103.do?_toGL08020103_&tclassID=000001026563&cycleCode=0&requestSender=search)."},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-3156.2006.01663.x"},{"key":"S0950268818001267_ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1123\/jpah.9.6.786"}],"container-title":["Epidemiology and Infection"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0950268818001267","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,13]],"date-time":"2019-04-13T19:02:07Z","timestamp":1555182127000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0950268818001267\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2018,5,21]]},"references-count":29,"journal-issue":{"issue":"10","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2018,7]]}},"alternative-id":["S0950268818001267"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0950268818001267","relation":{},"ISSN":["0950-2688","1469-4409"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0950-2688","type":"print"},{"value":"1469-4409","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2018,5,21]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Copyright \u00a9 Cambridge University Press 2018\u00a0This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.","name":"license","label":"License","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}}]}}