{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]],"date-time":"2026-10-01T07:16:00Z","timestamp":1790838960883,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":21,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,12,2]],"date-time":"2019-12-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1575244800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":335,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Predicting the magnitude of the annual seasonal peak in influenza-like illness (ILI)-related emergency department (ED) visit volumes can inform the decision to open influenza care clinics (ICCs), which can mitigate pressure at the ED. Using ILI-related ED visit data from the Alberta Real Time Syndromic Surveillance Net for Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, we developed (training data, 1 August 2004\u201331 July 2008) and tested (testing data, 1 August 2008\u201319 February 2014) spatio-temporal statistical prediction models of daily ILI-related ED visits to estimate high visit volumes 3 days in advance. Our Main Model, based on a generalised linear mixed model with random intercept, incorporated prediction residuals over 14 days and captured increases in observed volume ahead of peaks. During seasonal influenza periods, our Main Model predicted volumes within \u00b130% of observed volumes for 67%\u201382% of high-volume days and within 0.3%\u201321% of observed seasonal peak volumes. Model predictions were not as successful during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Our model can provide early warning of increases in ILI-related ED visit volumes during seasonal influenza periods of differing intensities. These predictions may be used to support public health decisions, such as if and when to open ICCs, during seasonal influenza epidemics.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268819001948","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,12,3]],"date-time":"2019-12-03T11:36:30Z","timestamp":1575372990000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Predicting influenza-like illness-related emergency department visits by modelling spatio-temporal syndromic surveillance data"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"147","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8034-1221","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"L. J.","family":"Martin","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"H.","family":"Dong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Q.","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"J.","family":"Talbot","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"W.","family":"Qiu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Y.","family":"Yasui","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,12,2]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0950268819001948_ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0023610"},{"key":"S0950268819001948_ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF03403965"},{"key":"S0950268819001948_ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwh029"},{"key":"S0950268819001948_ref21","unstructured":"The Flu Trends Team. The Next Chapter for Flu Trends. Google Research Blog. Available at http:\/\/googleresearch.blogspot.ca\/2015\/08\/the-next-chapter-for-flutrends.html. Published 20 August 2015 (Accessed 29 September 2015)."},{"key":"S0950268819001948_ref14","volume-title":"R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing","year":"2013"},{"key":"S0950268819001948_ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0056176"},{"key":"S0950268819001948_ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0011626"},{"key":"S0950268819001948_ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/TAC.1974.1100705"},{"key":"S0950268819001948_ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwg239"},{"key":"S0950268819001948_ref11","unstructured":"Statistics Canada. Cumulative profile, 2006 \u2013 Alberta (147 areas) (table), 2006 Census of Population, 3 char. postal code (Forward Sortation Areas) (database), Using E-STAT (distributor). Available at http:\/\/estat.statcan.gc.ca\/cgi-win\/cnsmcgi.exe?Lang=E&EST-Fi=EStat\\English\\SC_RR-eng.htm (Accessed 16 January 2012)."},{"key":"S0950268819001948_ref4","article-title":"Edmonton runs out of vaccine, as specialized clinic for flu patients opens","author":"Gerein","year":"2014","journal-title":"Edmonton Journal"},{"key":"S0950268819001948_ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/irv.12416"},{"key":"S0950268819001948_ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF03405054"},{"key":"S0950268819001948_ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2458-12-929"},{"key":"S0950268819001948_ref6","first-page":"5","article-title":"What is syndromic surveillance?","volume":"53","author":"Henning","year":"2004","journal-title":"MMWR Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report"},{"key":"S0950268819001948_ref13","first-page":"738","author":"Bishop","year":"2006","journal-title":"Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning"},{"key":"S0950268819001948_ref1","unstructured":"Menec VH (2001) The Impact of Influenza-Like Illness on the Winnipeg Health Care System: Is an Early Warning System Possible? Faculty of Medicine, University of Manitoba. Available at http:\/\/mchp-appserv.cpe.umanitoba.ca\/reference\/flu-like.pdf (Accessed 4 October 2012)."},{"key":"S0950268819001948_ref8","unstructured":"Anon. Health Link Alberta. Available at http:\/\/www.albertahealthservices.ca\/223.asp (Accessed 26 March 2015)."},{"key":"S0950268819001948_ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF03403963"},{"key":"S0950268819001948_ref10","unstructured":"Alberta Health Services. Pandemic (H1N1) 2009: The Alberta Experience; 15 December 2010. Available at http:\/\/www.health.alberta.ca\/documents\/H1N1-Alberta-Experience-2010.pdf (Accessed 1 March 2012)."},{"key":"S0950268819001948_ref9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4757-3462-1","volume-title":"Regression Modeling Strategies with Applications to Linear Models, Logistic Regression, and Survival Analysis. Chapter 5.3","author":"Harrell","year":"2001"}],"container-title":["Epidemiology and Infection"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0950268819001948","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,10]],"date-time":"2021-02-10T02:55:02Z","timestamp":1612925702000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0950268819001948\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019]]},"references-count":21,"alternative-id":["S0950268819001948"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0950268819001948","relation":{},"ISSN":["0950-2688","1469-4409"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0950-2688","type":"print"},{"value":"1469-4409","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019]]},"article-number":"e312"}}