{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,18]],"date-time":"2026-03-18T23:25:58Z","timestamp":1773876358486,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":38,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,30]],"date-time":"2021-07-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1627603200000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":210,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Health and Labor Sciences Research Grant","award":["Research for risk assessment and implementation of"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Research for risk assessment and implementation of"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n\t  <jats:p>Predicting the need for hospitalisation of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is important for preventing healthcare disruptions. This observational study aimed to use the COVID-19 Registry Japan (COVIREGI-JP) to develop a simple scoring system to predict respiratory failure due to COVID-19 using only underlying diseases and symptoms. A total of 6873 patients with COVID-19 admitted to Japanese medical institutions between 1 June 2020 and 2 December 2020 were included and divided into derivation and validation cohorts according to the date of admission. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to create a simple risk score model, with respiratory failure as the outcome for young (18\u201339 years), middle-aged (40\u201364 years) and older (\u226565 years) groups, using sex, age, body mass index, medical history and symptoms. The models selected for each age group were quite different. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the simple risk score model were 0.87, 0.79 and 0.80 for young, middle-aged and elderly derivation cohorts, and 0.81, 0.80 and 0.67 in the validation cohorts. Calibration of the model was good. The simple scoring system may be useful in the appropriate allocation of medical resources during the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268821001837","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,30]],"date-time":"2021-07-30T07:50:46Z","timestamp":1627631446000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":23,"title":["Predicting respiratory failure for COVID-19 patients in Japan: a simple clinical score for evaluating the need for hospitalisation"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"149","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9433-4287","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gen","family":"Yamada","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kayoko","family":"Hayakawa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Nobuaki","family":"Matsunaga","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mari","family":"Terada","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Setsuko","family":"Suzuki","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yusuke","family":"Asai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Hiroshi","family":"Ohtsu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ako","family":"Toyoda","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Koji","family":"Kitajima","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5732-846X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Shinya","family":"Tsuzuki","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sho","family":"Saito","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Norio","family":"Ohmagari","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jinf.2020.10.033"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-030-16399-0"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/all.14657"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.25969"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0237419"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/obr.13095"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envres.2020.109890"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jaci.2020.09.017"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mayocp.2020.06.050"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1113\/JP280769"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ejh.13493"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref4","unstructured":"4. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Transition of each countermeasure (surveillance, prevention of spread of infection, and medical care delivery system) when the number of patients with novel coronavirus infection increases in the community. Available at https:\/\/www.mhlw.go.jp\/content\/10900000\/000659576.pdf (Accessed 27 February 2021)."},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.m1328"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref13","unstructured":"13. National Center for Global Health and Medicine. COVID-19 Registry Japan. Available at https:\/\/covid-registry.ncgm.go.jp."},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref10","unstructured":"10. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Survey on the status of medical care and the number of inpatient beds (2021\/1\/27). Available at https:\/\/www.mhlw.go.jp\/stf\/seisakunitsuite\/newpage_00023.html (Accessed 27 February 2021)."},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2020.2648"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/obr.13089"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jbi.2008.08.010"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1053\/j.ajkd.2015.05.014"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref30","article-title":"Development and validation a nomogram for predicting the risk of severe COVID-19: a multi-center study in Sichuan, China","volume":"15","author":"Zhou","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajem.2020.09.017"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref9","unstructured":"9. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Survey on the status of medical care and the number of inpatient beds (2021\/1\/13). Available at https:\/\/www.mhlw.go.jp\/stf\/seisakunitsuite\/newpage_00023.html (Accessed 27 February 2021)."},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fmed.2020.572115"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(03)15268-3"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.368.6490.455"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2610.201620"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0241742"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajic.2020.06.008"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref7","unstructured":"7. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Current status of novel coronavirus infections and response by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Available at https:\/\/www.mhlw.go.jp\/stf\/newpage_17634.html (Accessed 26 March 2021)."},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cmi.2020.08.003"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref23","volume-title":"The Asia-Pacific Perspective: Redefining Obesity and its Treatment","year":"2000"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref38","unstructured":"38. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. 32th meeting of the COVID-19 advisory board of Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (2021\/4\/27). Available at https:\/\/www.mhlw.go.jp\/content\/10900000\/000774329.pdf (Accessed 18 June 2021)."},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.g7594"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref5","unstructured":"5. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Notes on the implementation of home recuperation for patients with mild cases of COVID-19 (4th ed.). Available at https:\/\/www.mhlw.go.jp\/content\/000657891.pdf (Accessed 27 February 2021)."},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ggi.13118"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jinf.2020.04.021"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.m1996"},{"key":"S0950268821001837_ref6","article-title":"Clinical epidemiology of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Japan: report of the COVID-19 REGISTRY JAPAN","author":"Matsunaga","year":"2020","journal-title":"Clinical Infectious Diseases"}],"container-title":["Epidemiology and Infection"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0950268821001837","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,6]],"date-time":"2021-08-06T08:11:48Z","timestamp":1628237508000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0950268821001837\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021]]},"references-count":38,"alternative-id":["S0950268821001837"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0950268821001837","relation":{},"ISSN":["0950-2688","1469-4409"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0950-2688","type":"print"},{"value":"1469-4409","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Copyright \u00a9 The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}},{"value":"This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.","name":"license","label":"License","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}},{"value":"This content has been made available to all.","name":"free","label":"Free to read"}],"article-number":"e175"}}