{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,16]],"date-time":"2026-01-16T18:00:50Z","timestamp":1768586450724,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":22,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,29]],"date-time":"2022-03-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1648512000000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":87,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n\t  <jats:p>Rabies in cattle is a viral disease with mandatory notification in Brazil, transmitted by <jats:italic>Desmodus rotundus<\/jats:italic>, which causes an invariably fatal acute encephalitis. To understand the dynamics of this disease in Tocantins state, Brazil, an analysis of the time series of rabies cases in cattle between 2006 and 2019 was carried out to describe the pattern of its occurrence, aiming to subsidise the Official Veterinary Service (OVS) with relevant information to enable the improvement of control actions provided for in the guidelines of the National Program for the Control of Rabies in Herbivores (NPCRH). The statistical analyses of the time series under study were performed using the R Studio software, version 1.1.463, in which the existence of trend, cyclicality and seasonality of rabies cases in cattle was assessed. These analyses showed that this disease is endemic in Tocantins state, with epidemic outbreaks that can occur every 3 or 4 years, without a seasonality pattern. The autoregressive integrated by moving average (ARIMA(4,1,4)) model predicted the approximate occurrence of 38 rabies cases in cattle in 2022 and all monthly records of this disease remained within the predicted confidence interval (95% CI) in 2020 and 2021, demonstrating it has a good predictive capacity and allowing OVS to intervene in the present processes to achieve better control of this disease.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268822000553","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,29]],"date-time":"2022-03-29T08:36:13Z","timestamp":1648542973000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":15,"title":["Statistical analysis between 2006 and 2019 and forecast of rabies in cattle from 2020 to 2022 in Tocantins State (Brazil), by using the R Studio software"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"150","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4714-9422","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alessandro Jos\u00e9 Ferreira dos","family":"Santos","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0297-4426","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jardel Martins","family":"Ferreira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Francisco","family":"Baptista","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Bruna","family":"Alexandrino","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Marco A. Giannoccaro da","family":"Silva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jos\u00e9 Emerson C.","family":"Gomes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jos\u00e9 Pereira","family":"Veloso J\u00fanior","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Raydleno Mateus","family":"Tavares","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Katyane de Sousa","family":"Almeida","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0950268822000553_ref18","first-page":"180","article-title":"Frequ\u00eancia da raiva em herb\u00edvoros e humanos no estado do Tocantins de 1999 a 2010: relat\u00f3rio t\u00e9cnico","volume":"7","author":"Oliveira","year":"2003","journal-title":"Acta Veterinaria Brasilica"},{"key":"S0950268822000553_ref9","first-page":"50","volume-title":"Tocantins: Hist\u00f3ria e Geografia","author":"Nascimento","year":"2011"},{"key":"S0950268822000553_ref15","unstructured":"15. 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Available at http:\/\/pkg.robjhyndman.com\/forecast (Accessed 1 March 2019)."},{"key":"S0950268822000553_ref7","volume-title":"Apresenta\u00e7\u00e3o Produto Interno Bruto do Tocantins \u2013 Ano 2018","year":"2020"},{"key":"S0950268822000553_ref20","first-page":"273","volume-title":"Veterinary immunology","author":"Tizard","year":"2013"},{"key":"S0950268822000553_ref21","first-page":"105","volume-title":"An\u00e1lise de Series Temporais","author":"Morettin","year":"2006"},{"key":"S0950268822000553_ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5123\/S1679-49742015000300024"},{"key":"S0950268822000553_ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v087.i11"},{"key":"S0950268822000553_ref17","volume-title":"An\u00e1lise de s\u00e9ries temporais","author":"Ehlers","year":"2007"},{"key":"S0950268822000553_ref11","first-page":"75","volume-title":"An\u00e1lise de S\u00e9ries Temporais em R: Curso Introdut\u00f3rio","author":"Barros","year":"2018"},{"key":"S0950268822000553_ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nrmicro2260"},{"key":"S0950268822000553_ref13","unstructured":"13. 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