{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,27]],"date-time":"2026-04-27T17:05:36Z","timestamp":1777309536155,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":20,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,20]],"date-time":"2022-12-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1671494400000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n\t  <jats:p>The rubella disease burden in Zambia may be under-estimated. Using models, we describe the transmission dynamics, determine the incidence estimates and assess the level of underestimation of the real burden of rubella infection in Zambia during the pre-vaccination period 2005\u20132016. This study used both the deterministic compartmental model and likelihood-based method using a Bayesian framework to describe the epidemiology of rubella. A total of 1313 cases of rubella were confirmed with the highest annual number of 255 new cases recorded in 2008. However, 2014 recorded the highest monthly median positivity rate of 9.0%. The observed median rubella cases were 5.5. There was a seasonal pattern in the occurrence of laboratory-confirmed rubella, with higher test positivity rates of rubella infection usually recorded in the months of September, October and November. The modelled monthly median incidence of rubella infection among the general population was 76 and 20 among pregnant women. The incidence of rubella among the non-pregnant women was 44. The average effective reproductive number (Rt) between 2005 and 2016 was estimated as 1.2 with the peak of infection occurring in 2016. The measles surveillance system underestimates the observed burden of rubella. A mass vaccination campaign conducted between January and July is recommended.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268822001868","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,20]],"date-time":"2022-12-20T08:11:45Z","timestamp":1671523905000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Estimated incidence and transmission intensity of rubella infection in Zambia pre-vaccine era 2005\u20132016"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"151","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5465-5710","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mazyanga L.","family":"Mazaba","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Samuel","family":"Bosomprah","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Daniel","family":"Cohen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mwaka","family":"Monze","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Seter","family":"Siziya","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0950268822001868_ref4","volume-title":"Expanded Programme on Immunization Vaccination Manual","year":"2017"},{"key":"S0950268822001868_ref13","first-page":"259","article-title":"Vaccination against rubella and measles: quantitative investigations of different policies","volume":"90","author":"Anderson","year":"1983","journal-title":"Epidemiology and Infection"},{"key":"S0950268822001868_ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwt133"},{"key":"S0950268822001868_ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-015-0989-6"},{"key":"S0950268822001868_ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm6642a6"},{"key":"S0950268822001868_ref1","first-page":"301","article-title":"Rubella vaccines: WHO position paper","volume":"86","year":"2011","journal-title":"Weekly Epidemiological Record"},{"key":"S0950268822001868_ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-020-4806-5"},{"key":"S0950268822001868_ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jir155"},{"key":"S0950268822001868_ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0035-9203(77)90044-X"},{"key":"S0950268822001868_ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm6437a5"},{"key":"S0950268822001868_ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2016-012959"},{"key":"S0950268822001868_ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-015-1642-4"},{"key":"S0950268822001868_ref10","first-page":"190","article-title":"Rubella haemagglutination inhibiting antibodies in females of child-bearing age in western Nigeria","volume":"22","author":"Odelola","year":"1978","journal-title":"Journal of Hygiene, Epidemiology, Microbiology, and Immunology"},{"key":"S0950268822001868_ref8","first-page":"53","article-title":"P\u00e9valence s\u00e9rologique de la rub\u00e9ole chez la femme enceinte \u00e0 Abidjan","volume":"38","author":"Vrinat","year":"1978","journal-title":"Medecine Tropicale"},{"key":"S0950268822001868_ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v033.i09"},{"key":"S0950268822001868_ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1008858"},{"key":"S0950268822001868_ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0149160"},{"key":"S0950268822001868_ref6","unstructured":"6. World Health Organization. Immunization analysis and insights: surveillance for vaccine preventable diseases (VPDs). Available at https:\/\/www.who.int\/teams\/immunization-vaccines-and-biologicals\/immunization-analysis-and-insights\/surveillance\/surveillance-for-vpds (Accessed 15 June 2022)."},{"key":"S0950268822001868_ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm6645a4"},{"key":"S0950268822001868_ref11","first-page":"109","article-title":"Rubella antibodies in a sample of Lusaka mothers","volume":"17","author":"Watts","year":"1983","journal-title":"Medical Journal of Zambia"}],"container-title":["Epidemiology and Infection"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0950268822001868","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,19]],"date-time":"2023-01-19T13:53:40Z","timestamp":1674136420000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0950268822001868\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,20]]},"references-count":20,"alternative-id":["S0950268822001868"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0950268822001868","relation":{},"ISSN":["0950-2688","1469-4409"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0950-2688","type":"print"},{"value":"1469-4409","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,20]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Copyright \u00a9 The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}},{"value":"This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.","name":"license","label":"License","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}},{"value":"This content has been made available to all.","name":"free","label":"Free to read"}],"article-number":"e9"}}