{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,13]],"date-time":"2025-05-13T21:57:28Z","timestamp":1747173448830,"version":"3.40.5"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,19]],"date-time":"2023-05-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1684454400000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":138,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n\t  <jats:p>The world has suffered a lot from COVID-19 and is still on the verge of a new outbreak. The infected regions of coronavirus have been classified into four categories: SIRD model, (1) suspected, (2) infected, (3) recovered, and (4) deaths, where the COVID-19 transmission is evaluated using a stochastic model. A study in Pakistan modeled COVID-19 data using stochastic models like PRM and NBR. The findings were evaluated based on these models, as the country faces its third wave of the virus. Our study predicts COVID-19 casualties in Pakistan using a count data model. We\u2019ve used a Poisson process, SIRD-type framework, and a stochastic model to find the solution. We took data from NCOC (National Command and Operation Center) website to choose the best prediction model based on all provinces of Pakistan, On the values of log L and AIC criteria. The best model among PRM and NBR is NBR because when over-dispersion happens; NBR is the best model for modelling the total suspected, infected, and recovered COVID-19 occurrences in Pakistan as it has the maximum log\u00a0L and smallest AIC of the other count regression model. It was also observed that the active and critical cases positively and significantly affect COVID-19-related deaths in Pakistan using the NBR model.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268823000730","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,19]],"date-time":"2023-05-19T06:13:55Z","timestamp":1684476835000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Prediction of the COVID-19 transmission: a case study of Pakistan"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"151","author":[{"given":"Qurat Ul An","family":"Sabir","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ambreen","family":"Shafqat","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0644-1950","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Muhammad","family":"Aslam","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0950268823000730_r16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.139051"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/03610926.2014.901375"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r1","unstructured":"[1] Minka, TP , Shmeuli, G , Kadane, JB , Borle, S and Boatwright, P (2003) Computing with the COM-Poisson Distribution. PA: Department of 776."},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r32","first-page":"1","volume-title":"Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online","author":"Juarez\u2010Colunga","year":"2020"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.11648\/j.ijsd.20170303.15"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r21","unstructured":"[21] Ferguson, NM , Laydon, D and Nedjati-Gilani, G (2020) Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand. Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team."},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.spl.2010.08.002"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/17480930.2017.1388335"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11356-020-11203-2"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r34","first-page":"1","article-title":"Predicting the death rate around the world due to COVID-19 using regression analysis","volume":"13","author":"Nair","year":"2022","journal-title":"International Journal of Swarm Intelligence Research (IJSIR)"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r2","first-page":"127","article-title":"A useful distribution for fitting discrete data: Revival of the Conway\u2013Maxwell\u2013Poisson distribution","volume":"54","author":"Shmueli","year":"2005","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics)"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.csda.2006.07.017"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.25814"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/0471704091"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11356-020-11273-2"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1751-7176.2010.00264.x"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01210539"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781139013567"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12911-022-01861-2"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r19","unstructured":"[19] WHO (2020) Global Surveillance for COVID-19 Disease Caused by Human Infection with the 2019 Novel Coronavirus. Interim Guidance, 27 February 2020."},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/16549716.2020.1760490"},{"volume-title":"What Do Confirmed Numbers Tell Us? Using an adapted SEIR model for Estimation of COVID-19 in Pakistan","year":"2020","author":"Hussain","key":"S0950268823000730_r25"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMc2001737"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/10543409508835101"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r7","first-page":"328","article-title":"Regression models for categorical and limited dependent variables","volume":"7","author":"Scott","year":"1997","journal-title":"Advanced Quantitative Techniques in the Social Sciences"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kww013"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taaa021"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jspi.2011.01.007"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.9020"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5539\/ijsp.v4n4p112"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1239\/jap\/1437658603"},{"volume-title":"Categorical Data Analysis","year":"2003","author":"Agresti","key":"S0950268823000730_r9"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4899-3242-6"},{"key":"S0950268823000730_r23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chaos.2020.110189"}],"container-title":["Epidemiology and Infection"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0950268823000730","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,1]],"date-time":"2023-06-01T07:42:39Z","timestamp":1685605359000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0950268823000730\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023]]},"references-count":34,"alternative-id":["S0950268823000730"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0950268823000730","relation":{},"ISSN":["0950-2688","1469-4409"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"0950-2688"},{"type":"electronic","value":"1469-4409"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023]]},"assertion":[{"value":"\u00a9 The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}},{"value":"This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.","name":"license","label":"License","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}},{"value":"This content has been made available to all.","name":"free","label":"Free to read"}],"article-number":"e89"}}