{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,6]],"date-time":"2026-11-06T08:45:00Z","timestamp":1793954700586,"version":"4.8.0"},"reference-count":41,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,2]],"date-time":"2024-12-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1733097600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":336,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-sa\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NIH 5R01AI102939"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NIH 5R01AI102939"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01 AI135115"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01 AI135115"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001711","name":"Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F\u00f6rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["P2ELP3_175079"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["P2ELP3_175079"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001711","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Most infections with pandemic\n                    <jats:italic>Vibrio cholerae<\/jats:italic>\n                    are thought to result in subclinical disease and are not captured by surveillance. Previous estimates of the ratio of infections to clinical cases have varied widely (2 to 100 infections per case). Understanding cholera epidemiology and immunity relies on the ability to translate between numbers of clinical cases and the underlying number of infections in the population. We estimated the infection incidence during the first months of an outbreak in a cholera-naive population using a Bayesian vibriocidal antibody titer decay model combining measurements from a representative serosurvey and clinical surveillance data. 3,880 suspected cases were reported in Grande Saline, Haiti, between 20 October 2010 and 6 April 2011 (clinical attack rate 18.4%). We found that more than 52.6% (95% Credible Interval (CrI) 49.4-55.7) of the population \u22652 years showed serologic evidence of infection, with a lower infection rate among children aged 2-4 years (35.5%; 95%CrI 24.2-51.6) compared with people \u22655 years (53.1%; 95%CrI 49.4-56.4). This estimated infection rate, nearly three times the clinical attack rate, with underdetection mainly seen in those \u22655 years, has likely impacted subsequent outbreak dynamics. Our findings show how seroincidence estimates improve understanding of links between cholera burden, transmission dynamics and immunity.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268824000888","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,2]],"date-time":"2024-12-02T02:06:02Z","timestamp":1733105162000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Inferring the proportion of undetected cholera infections from serological and clinical surveillance in an immunologically naive population"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"152","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8613-5170","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Flavio","family":"Finger","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Joseph","family":"Lemaitre","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stanley","family":"Juin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Brendan","family":"Jackson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sebastian","family":"Funk","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Justin","family":"Lessler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Eric","family":"Mintz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Patrick","family":"Dely","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jacques","family":"Boncy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8662-9077","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Andrew S","family":"Azman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,2]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0950268824000888_r36","first-page":"e55","volume-title":"Probabilistic programming in Python using PyMC3","volume":"2","author":"Salvatier","year":"2016"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/scitranslmed.aau6242"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM198309013090903"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r21","first-page":"S17","volume-title":"Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"121","author":"Bart","year":"1970"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r39","article-title":"Vibriocidal assays to determine the antibody titer of patient sera samples","volume":"6","author":"Son","year":"2011","journal-title":"Current Protocols in Microbiology"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyn260"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2022.05.039"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r30","first-page":"309","article-title":"Notes from the field: Identification of Vibrio cholerae serogroup O1, serotype Inaba, biotype El Tor strain - Haiti, March 2012","volume":"61","year":"2012","journal-title":"MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a120979"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/CMR.8.1.48"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r24","first-page":"189","article-title":"The epidemiologic basis of cholera control","volume":"8","author":"Gangarosa","year":"1974","journal-title":"Bulletin of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO)"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jinf.2012.11.013"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pgph.0002861"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2666-5247(20)30141-5"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiaa523"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm6718a6"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r10","unstructured":"[10] Jones, FK , et al. 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A global roadmap to 2030. 2017, p. 32\u201332."},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r13","first-page":"129","volume-title":"The Epidemiology of Cholera","author":"Glass","year":"1992"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nrmicro2204"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.13-0208"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r33","volume-title":"R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing","year":"2017"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-018-0157-4"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-020-01865-7"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1004286"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciw145"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r6","unstructured":"[6] GTFCC Surveillance Working Group. Public health surveillance for cholera. Global Task Force on Cholera Control, 2023 Feb."},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r29","unstructured":"[29] Institut Haitien de Statistique et d\u2019Informatique (IHSI). Projection de la population par la section communale de 2009. 2009."},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0003832"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000221"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r32","volume-title":"United Nations Demographic Yearbook","volume":"2012","year":"2011"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.16-0523"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/145.4.465"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r37","first-page":"1593","article-title":"The No-U-turn sampler: adaptively setting path lengths in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo","volume":"15","author":"Hoffman","year":"2014","journal-title":"The Journal of Machine Learning Research"},{"key":"S0950268824000888_r23","first-page":"1","article-title":"Environmental aspects of cholera epidemiology. III. 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Published by Cambridge University Press","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}},{"value":"This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike licence (http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-sa\/4.0), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the same Creative Commons licence is used to distribute the re-used or adapted article and the original article is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained prior to any commercial use.","name":"license","label":"License","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}},{"value":"This content has been made available to all.","name":"free","label":"Free to read"}],"article-number":"e149"}}