{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,30]],"date-time":"2026-07-30T14:17:42Z","timestamp":1785421062210,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,6]],"date-time":"2026-02-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1770336000000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":36,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    This study aims to assess whether there was any excess mortality among the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations in the Northern Territory (NT), Australia, during the COVID-19 pandemic. A time-series analysis using death data (1997\u20132023) was applied separately to the monthly and yearly death counts to develop an excess mortality surveillance model (using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)) for the NT population. Excess mortality was calculated by comparing expected deaths with actual deaths. In 2022, there was a statistically significant excess mortality of 193 (\n                    <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                    &lt;\u00a00.01), compared with 82 recorded COVID-19 deaths. Excess mortality was significant for both the Aboriginal (\n                    <jats:italic>N<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u00a0=\u00a091) and non-Aboriginal (\n                    <jats:italic>N<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u00a0=\u00a0102) populations in 2022. Even though some months had significant excess mortality among both Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations, the recorded COVID-19 deaths were not high in these months. This was associated with the peak of COVID-19 fatalities. The ARIMA model demonstrates deviations from expected deaths and helps understand the pandemic\u2019s impact on the NT. Excess deaths occurred in 2022; however, no large spikes in most of the months suggest public health success in the NT.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268826101046","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,6]],"date-time":"2026-02-06T02:38:53Z","timestamp":1770345533000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Measuring the excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Northern Territory, Australia"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"154","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0000-6392-4399","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Renu","family":"Unnikrishanan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01537wn74","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Department of Health, Northern Territory"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yuejen","family":"Zhao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01537wn74","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Department of Health, Northern Territory"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Christopher Paul","family":"Burgess","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01537wn74","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Department of Health, Northern Territory"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Peter Gregory","family":"Markey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01537wn74","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Department of Health, Northern Territory"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ramakrishna","family":"Chondur","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01537wn74","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Department of Health, Northern Territory"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jerry","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01537wn74","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Centre for Disease Control, Northern Territory"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vicki","family":"Krause","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01537wn74","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Centre for Disease Control, Northern Territory"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0950268826101046_r23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjgh-2022-009032"},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r28","unstructured":"[28] Department of Health Northern Territory (August 2022) Cheif Health Officer\u2019s Report; The COVID-19 public health emergency 18 March 2020 to 15 June 2022. https:\/\/health.nt.gov.au\/__data\/assets\/pdf_file\/0020\/1179110\/chief-health-officers-report.pdf (accessed 6 January 2025)."},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r10","volume-title":"Morbidity Burden of Disease and Injury in the Northern Territory 2014\u20132018 [Internet]","author":"Zhao","year":"2023"},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r13","article-title":"A framework for estimating and visualising excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic","author":"Konstantinoudis","year":"2022","journal-title":"ArXiv"},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r33","unstructured":"[33] Jansson, P and Larsson, H (2020) ARIMA Modeling: Forecasting Indices on the Stockholm Stock Exchange: Karlstad University, SE-651 88 Karlstad; urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-77148 https:\/\/www.diva-portal.org\/smash\/get\/diva2:1413099\/FULLTEXT01.p"},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r17","unstructured":"[17] World Health Organisation (2023) The true death toll of Covid-19, Estimating global excess mortality. https:\/\/www.who.int\/data\/stories\/the-true-death-toll-of-covid-19-estimating-global-excess-mortality (accessed 23 February 2024)."},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s41118-021-00123-9"},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-022-05522-2"},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r22","first-page":"10","article-title":"Modelling and forecasting seasonal behavior of rainfall in Abuja, Nigeria; a SARIMA approach","volume":"10","author":"Adams","year":"2020","journal-title":"American journal of Mathematics and Statistics."},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.33321\/cdi.2020.44.90"},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r12","unstructured":"[12] Taylor, A , et al. (2021) COVID-19 Impacts for residents of the Northern Territory of Australia: Analysis from the Territory and me-COVID update survey 2021. https:\/\/theterritoryandme.cdu.edu.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/TTaM-COVID-update-summary.pdf."},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jnlssr.2020.06.007"},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/eurpub\/ckab047"},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r19","volume-title":"Stata Statistical Software: Release 18","year":"2023"},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r11","unstructured":"[11] Department of Local Government Housing and Community Development (2019) A home for all Territorians Northern Territory housing strategy 2020\u20132025. https:\/\/tfhc.nt.gov.au\/__data\/assets\/pdf_file\/0010\/765433\/nt-housing-strategy-2020-2025.pdf (accessed 22 March 2024)."},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2023.1019536"},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r2","unstructured":"[2] Actuaries Institute (2022) COVID-19 Mortality Working Group: Confirmation of 20000 excess deaths for 2022 in Australia. https:\/\/www.actuaries.asn.au\/research-analysis\/covid-19-mortality-working-group-confirmation-of-20-000-excess-deaths-for-2022-in-australia (accessed 20 September 2025)."},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r32","unstructured":"[32] Australian Bureau of Statistics (2024) Measuring Australia\u2019s excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic until December 2023. https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/articles\/measuring-australias-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic-until-december-2023 (accessed 16 September 2025)."},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r30","first-page":"27","article-title":"The effect of social distancing and border control measures on rates of influenza, influenza-like illness and lower respiratory tract infection in the Northern Territory","volume":"44","author":"Markey","year":"2020","journal-title":"Communicable Diseases Intelligence"},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r29","unstructured":"[29] Northern Territory Government (2022) Prepare for COVID-19. https:\/\/health.nt.gov.au\/covid-19\/managing-covid-19\/prepare-for-covid-19 (accessed 9 July 2024)."},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r1","unstructured":"[1] Mathieu, E , et al. (2021) Excess mortality during the Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19). https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/excess-mortality-covid (accessed 22 March 2024)."},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r16","unstructured":"[16] Australian Bureau of Statistics (2023) Measuring Australia\u2019s excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic until the first quarter 2023. https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/articles\/measuring-australias-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic-until-first-quarter-2023 (accessed 31 August 2024)."},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r26","volume-title":"Variation in policy response to COVID-19 across Australian states and territories","author":"Edwards","year":"2022"},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r7","unstructured":"[7] Australian Bureau of Statistics (2024) COVID-19 Mortality in Australia: Deaths registered until 31 January 2024. https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/articles\/covid-19-mortality-australia-deaths-registered-until-31-january-2024 (accessed 18 November 2024)."},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.33321\/cdi.2020.44.53"},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r6","unstructured":"[6] Australian Bureau of Statistics (2023) Measuring Australia\u2019s excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2023. https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/articles\/measuring-australias-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic-until-august-2023 (accessed 16 September 2024)."},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12874-021-01235-8"},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0299844"},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1753-6405.13275"},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r20","unstructured":"[20] Australian Bureau of Statistics (2024) Deaths, Australia methodology, 2023. https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/methodologies\/deaths-australia-methodology\/2023#explanatory-notes (accessed 15 April 2024)."},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r5","unstructured":"[5] Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2022) The impact of a new disease: COVID-19 from 2020, 2021 and into 2022, Australia\u2019s health 2022. https:\/\/www.aihw.gov.au\/getmedia\/c017fa79-be4b-4ad5-bbf3-2878ed0995e5\/aihw-aus-240_chapter_1.pdf.aspx (accessed 17 May 2024)."},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r8","unstructured":"[8] Department of Treasury and Finance (2024) Northern Territory Economy, Population. https:\/\/nteconomy.nt.gov.au\/population (accessed 8 August 2024)."},{"key":"S0950268826101046_r3","volume-title":"WHO COVID-19 Dashboard, Number of COVID-19 Deaths Reported to WHO (Cumulative Total) [Internet]. WHO Health Emergencies Programme","year":"2024"}],"container-title":["Epidemiology and Infection"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0950268826101046","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,17]],"date-time":"2026-07-17T07:17:33Z","timestamp":1784272653000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0950268826101046\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"references-count":33,"alternative-id":["S0950268826101046"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0950268826101046","relation":{},"ISSN":["0950-2688","1469-4409"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0950-2688","type":"print"},{"value":"1469-4409","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"assertion":[{"value":"\u00a9 The Author(s), 2026. Published by Cambridge University Press","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}},{"value":"This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.","name":"license","label":"License","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}},{"value":"This content has been made available to all.","name":"free","label":"Free to read"}],"article-number":"e26"}}