{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,17]],"date-time":"2026-07-17T08:04:53Z","timestamp":1784275493084,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":56,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,26]],"date-time":"2026-01-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1769385600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":25,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>COVID-19 led to a pandemic in 2020, which officially arrived in Colombia on 6 March 2020. As in other parts of the world, the spread of the virus was underestimated due to the lack of diagnostic tests and follow-up protocols. The present study estimates the number of daily cases of COVID-19 infection compatible with theoretical knowledge of the disease, seroprevalence studies, and records of daily deaths due to the disease. To this end, the REMEDID (Retrospective Methodology to Estimate Daily Infections from Deaths) algorithm was applied in nine Colombian cities. On average, official records detected only around 13% of the maximum number of infected persons in the first wave, which they dated with a delay of 25\u00a0days. In addition, there was an average delay of 30\u00a0days in detecting the first cases. In particular, in Bogot\u00e1, the city with the highest number of infections in Colombia, it was observed that (1) the first infected person arrived on 26 January 2020, 40\u00a0days before the official registration; (2) the maximum peak of infections was around 6 times higher than that recorded in the official statistics; and (3) this peak was reached on 08 July 2020, 39\u00a0days before the official registration date.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s095026882610106x","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,26]],"date-time":"2026-01-26T11:50:43Z","timestamp":1769428243000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Retrospective estimate of COVID-19 infections in nine Colombian cities in 2020"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"154","author":[{"given":"Jenny","family":"M\u00e1rquez","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Vi\u00f1a del Mar"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David","family":"Garc\u00eda-Garc\u00eda","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Alicante"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"M. Isabel","family":"Vigo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Alicante"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"C\u00e9sar","family":"Bordehore","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Alicante"},{"name":"University of Alicante"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"S095026882610106X_r7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1183\/23120541.00766-2020"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r3","unstructured":"[3] Pan American Health Organization PAHO (2020) WHO characterizes COVID-19 as a pandemic. Available at https:\/\/www.paho.org\/es\/noticias\/11-3-2020-oms-caracteriza-covid-19-como-pandemia (accessed 3 April 2024)."},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r24","unstructured":"[24] DED (2021) ABC of COVID mortality registration in Colombia. Third Report of the National Institute of Health. Directorate of Epidemiology and Demography. Available at https:\/\/www.ins.gov.co\/BibliotecaDigital\/abece-Registro-mortalidad-Covid.pdf (accessed 11 June 2025."},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r36","volume-title":"Seroprevalence Studies Predict Pandemic Behavior","year":"2020"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamainternmed.2020.7976"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-021-90051-7"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1988.10478599"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.2432"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r21","unstructured":"[21] Tikitakas (2020) Quarantine in Colombia: what it is, when it started and when it ends. Available at https:\/\/colombia.as.com\/colombia\/2020\/06\/24\/tikitakas\/1593011326_126254.html."},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2103272118"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciab519"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r33","unstructured":"[33] The Viewer (2021) What the first seroprevalence study in ten Colombian cities reveals. Available at https:\/\/www.elespectador.com\/salud\/seroprevalencia-lo-que-dice-el-primer-estudio-del-porcentaje-real-de-infectados-en-diez-ciudades-de-colombia\/."},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r1","unstructured":"[1] Our World in Data (n.d.) Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases. Available at https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/covid-cases (accessed 12 March 2024)."},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r47","unstructured":"[47] ECDC (2020) Cluster of pneumonia cases caused by a novel coronavirus, Wuhan, China. Available at https:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/sites\/default\/files\/documents\/Riskassessment - pneumonia Wuhan China 17 Jan 2020.pdf (accessed 10 June 2021)."},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r53","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-020-2405-7"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r4","unstructured":"[4] BBC News World (2023) WHO declares end of global health emergency for COVID-19. Available at https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/mundo\/noticias-65500141 (accessed 20 December 2023)."},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/hep.510290528"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0258(19971015)16:19<2191::AID-SIM645>3.0.CO;2-5"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r39","unstructured":"[39] Ministry of Health and Social Protection (2020) Resolution 1462 of 2020. Available at https:\/\/www.alcaldiabogota.gov.co\/sisjur\/normas\/Norma1.jsp?dt=S&i=96146&utm_source."},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0246772"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0258(19990430)18:8<919::AID-SIM89>3.0.CO;2-7"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gaceta.2024.102357"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r20","unstructured":"[20] GOV.CO (2020) Colombia confirms its first case of COVID-19. Available at https:\/\/www.minsalud.gov.co\/Paginas\/Colombia-confirma-su-primer-caso-de-COVID-19.aspx."},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r31","unstructured":"[31] National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) (2023) Statistics by subject: Population Census. Available at https:\/\/www.dane.gov.co\/index.php\/estadisticas-por-tema\/demografia-y-poblacion\/censo-nacional-de-poblacion-y-vivenda-2018 (accessed 10 May 2023)."},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(21)00173-X"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268820001065"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r54","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abb4557"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamainternmed.2020.4130"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijantimicag.2020.106006"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r52","unstructured":"[52] Mesoamerica Project (2024) Colombia COVID-19. 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(2023) Available at https:\/\/www.datos.gov.co\/Salud-y-Protecci-n-Social\/Casos-positivos-de-COVID-19-en-Colombia\/gt2j-8ykr\/data (accessed between 24 April 2023 and 11 May 2023)."},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r29","volume-title":"SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence during the Epidemic in Colombia: National Study","year":"2021"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abb3221"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/jcm9020538"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r22","unstructured":"[22] GOV.CO (2023) Open data: Positive COVID cases in Colombia. Available at https:\/\/www.datos.gov.co\/Salud-y-Protecci-n-Social\/Casos-positivos-de-COVID-19-en-Colombia-\/gt2j-8ykr\/data (accessed 29 December 2023)."},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciaa1785"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r55","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s40249-020-00716-0"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r34","unstructured":"[34] TRT Spanish (2020) Government of Colombia confirms the first case of Coronavirus in the country. Available at https:\/\/www.trt.net.tr\/espanol\/vida-y-salud\/2020\/03\/07\/gobierno-de-colombia-confirma-el-primer-caso-de-coronavirus-en-el-pais-1373756."},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-021-04440-z"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(22)00484-6"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r56","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijdrr.2022.103015"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)31483-5"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r5","unstructured":"[5] United Nations (2023) Pandemic emergency ends, but COVID continues. 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Available at https:\/\/www.paho.org\/es\/noticias\/30-1-2023-pandemia-covid-19-sigue-constituyendo-emergencia-salud-publica-importancia."},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r35","first-page":"2","article-title":"COVID-19 in Colombia, the first 90 days","volume":"36","author":"Roselli","year":"2021","journal-title":"Acta Neurol\u00f3gica Colombiana"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/biology10040311"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.sste.2022.100517"},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r23","unstructured":"[23] National Institute of Health INS (2023). National Study of Seroprevalence during the pandemic in Colombia. Available at https:\/\/www.ins.gov.co\/estudio-nacional-de-seroprevalencia\/reporte.html#curso."},{"key":"S095026882610106X_r30","unstructured":"[30] National Institute of Health (n.d.). National Seroprevalence Study. Available at https:\/\/www.ins.gov.co\/estudio-nacional-de-seroprevalencia\/reporte.html#curso (accessed 11 September 2023)."}],"container-title":["Epidemiology and Infection"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S095026882610106X","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,17]],"date-time":"2026-07-17T07:16:58Z","timestamp":1784272618000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S095026882610106X\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"references-count":56,"alternative-id":["S095026882610106X"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s095026882610106x","relation":{},"ISSN":["0950-2688","1469-4409"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0950-2688","type":"print"},{"value":"1469-4409","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"assertion":[{"value":"\u00a9 The Author(s), 2026. Published by Cambridge University Press","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}},{"value":"This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.","name":"license","label":"License","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}},{"value":"This content has been made available to all.","name":"free","label":"Free to read"}],"article-number":"e22"}}