{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,30]],"date-time":"2026-07-30T08:38:58Z","timestamp":1785400738859,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,20]],"date-time":"2026-04-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1776643200000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":109,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Enterovirus A71 was first isolated in California in 1969, with the earliest retrospective detection traced back to 1963 in the Netherlands, but its early spread remains unclear. Using age-specific seroprevalence data from children aged 1\u201310 years in Kawasaki City, Japan, collected annually from 1966\u20131973, we applied serocatalytic models to estimate annual force of infection during 1959\u20131973. Several models were tested, incorporating different assumptions about time-varying force of infection, age-dependent susceptibility, and seroreversion, to identify the best fit to the data. Model comparison identified the models with independent annual infection probability or two distinct outbreak periods, both including age-dependent force of infection and seroreversion, as optimal. All top models consistently identified two major transmission periods: 1961\u20131962 and 1968\u20131969. The two-outbreak model estimated mean attack rates of 21.8% and 37.8% for the earlier and later outbreaks under seroreversion, and 19.8% and 34.9% under age-dependent force of infection. Our findings provide evidence of enterovirus A71 circulation in Japan during two distinct periods in the 1960s, coinciding with early detections in Europe and the USA, suggesting global distribution by that decade. This study underscores the value of testing archived sera for reconstructing pathogen emergence and spread.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268826101435","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,20]],"date-time":"2026-04-20T02:00:46Z","timestamp":1776650446000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Historical reconstruction of the earliest enterovirus A71 epidemics in Japan in the 1960s"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"154","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0009-5041-3704","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xinhua","family":"Chen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/041kmwe10","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Imperial College London"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nathana\u00ebl","family":"Hoz\u00e9","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/05f82e368","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Universit\u00e9 Paris Cit\u00e9 and Universit\u00e9 Sorbonne Paris Nord"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Margarita","family":"Pons-Salort","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/041kmwe10","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Imperial College London"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0950268826101435_r15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00006454-198702000-00013"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7883\/yoken1952.34.191"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/21645515.2018.1442997"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1303224"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1348-0421.1979.tb00448.x"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7883\/yoken1952.28.231"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r22","unstructured":"[22] Rohatgi, A (2024) WebPlotDigitizer 4.8. https:\/\/github.com\/automeris-io\/WebPlotDigitizer (accessed 29 October 2024)."},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268809991555"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010506"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r7","first-page":"689","article-title":"Central nervous system infections. Etiologic and epidemiologic observations in New York state, 1976\u20131977","volume":"79","author":"Deibel","year":"1979","journal-title":"New York State Journal of Medicine"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(74)91684-5"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2026.100899"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00401706.1974.10489157"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/adc.55.8.583"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01314873"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1474-4422(10)70209-X"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(10)70194-8"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(98)11032-2"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/JCM.00507-09"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7883\/yoken1952.26.143"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r10","first-page":"284","article-title":"Epidemiological, clinical, and pathomorphological characteristics of epidemic poliomyelitis-like disease caused by enterovirus 71","volume":"23","author":"Shindarov","year":"1979","journal-title":"Journal of Hygiene, Epidemiology, Microbiology, and Immunology"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00006454-198807000-00007"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r6","first-page":"609","article-title":"Enterovirus type 71 infection in Melbourne","volume":"51","author":"Kennett","year":"1974","journal-title":"Bulletin of the World Health Organization"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7883\/yoken1952.25.43"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1012777"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/JVI.01019-09"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01317504"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r19","unstructured":"[19] Adminstration, NMP (2015) The Food and Drug Administration approved the production and marketing of enterovirus 71 inactivated vaccine. https:\/\/www.nmpa.gov.cn\/yaopin\/ypjgdt\/20151203164201285.html (accessed 26 October 2024)."},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(13)70342-6"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-022-34992-1"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/129.3.304"},{"key":"S0950268826101435_r29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aat6777"}],"container-title":["Epidemiology and Infection"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0950268826101435","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,17]],"date-time":"2026-07-17T07:02:56Z","timestamp":1784271776000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0950268826101435\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"references-count":32,"alternative-id":["S0950268826101435"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0950268826101435","relation":{},"ISSN":["0950-2688","1469-4409"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0950-2688","type":"print"},{"value":"1469-4409","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"assertion":[{"value":"\u00a9 The Author(s), 2026. Published by Cambridge University Press","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}},{"value":"This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.","name":"license","label":"License","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}},{"value":"This content has been made available to all.","name":"free","label":"Free to read"}],"article-number":"e57"}}