{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,22]],"date-time":"2026-10-22T10:39:04Z","timestamp":1792665544585,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":0,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,22]],"date-time":"2026-10-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1792627200000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":294,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,22]],"date-time":"2026-10-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1792627200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":294,"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/tdm\/tdmrep-policy.json"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["cambridge.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol. Infect."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Seroprevalence surveys reveal the extent of humoral immunity against pathogens such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and under some circumstances represent cumulative incidence of prior infection. However, antibody waning \u2013 or seroreversion \u2013 biases these estimates by reducing assay sensitivity in a time-varying manner. Because assay sensitivity decays over time, naively using serosurveys can substantially bias estimates of SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence and fatality rates. The Bayesian assay-specific, time-varying sensitivity adjustment developed in this paper can reliably correct for this bias and account for the delay between infection and serosurvey. In seroprevalence studies conducted in the United States in 2020, adjusting for time-varying sensitivity increased cumulative incidence by up to 1.4-fold, with an adjustment of 1.08 for a national study. Our estimates contrast with a previously published 2-fold adjustment that did not account for assay design. This suggests that previous analyses overestimated cumulative incidence by applying seroreversion corrections that did not account for assay-specific effects, or underestimated cumulative incidence by not applying seroreversion corrections. These biases imply fatality rate underestimation and overestimation, respectively. Our model provides a framework for design-specific time-varying sensitivity corrections in seroprevalence surveys for other pathogens.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268826102325","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,22]],"date-time":"2026-10-22T09:55:33Z","timestamp":1792662933000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Estimating COVID-19 cumulative incidence from seroprevalence surveys accounting for time-varying seroreversion: A fully Bayesian methodology"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"154","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0974-6346","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nana","family":"Owusu-Boaitey","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/047s2c258","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"University of Maryland at College Park"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3942-9675","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mark J.","family":"Meyer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Georgetown University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daniel","family":"Herrera-Esposito","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00b30xv10","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"University of Pennsylvania"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lucas","family":"B\u00f6ttcher","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/05gxyna29","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Frankfurt School of Finance & Management gGmbH"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maria","family":"Lukz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/047s2c258","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"University of Maryland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sydney","family":"Cook","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/05vt9qd57","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Rutgers Robert Wood Johnson Medical School"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael A.","family":"Stoto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Georgetown University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8769-3393","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"John D.","family":"Kraemer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Georgetown University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,22]]},"container-title":["Epidemiology and Infection"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0950268826102325","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S0950268826102325","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,22]],"date-time":"2026-10-22T09:55:34Z","timestamp":1792662934000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S0950268826102325\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"references-count":0,"alternative-id":["S0950268826102325"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s0950268826102325","relation":{},"ISSN":["0950-2688","1469-4409"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0950-2688","type":"print"},{"value":"1469-4409","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"assertion":[{"value":"\u00a9 The Author(s), 2026. Published by Cambridge University Press","name":"copyright","label":"Copyright","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}},{"value":"This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.","name":"license","label":"License","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}},{"value":"This content has been made available to all.","name":"free","label":"Free to read"}],"article-number":"e137"}}