{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,23]],"date-time":"2023-05-23T18:26:10Z","timestamp":1684866370543},"reference-count":17,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2012,6,28]],"date-time":"2012-06-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1340841600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":1123,"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/terms"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Prehosp. Disaster med."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2009,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec id=\"S1049023X00006865_sec01\" sec-type=\"intro\"><jats:title><jats:bold>Introduction:<\/jats:bold><\/jats:title><jats:p>The smallpox vaccination emergency preparedness program has been unsuccessful in enrolling sufficient numbers of healthcare workers.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec id=\"S1049023X00006865_sec02\"><jats:title><jats:bold>Objective:<\/jats:bold><\/jats:title><jats:p>The objective of this study was to use game theory to analyze a pre-event vaccination versus post-event vaccination program using the example of a terrorist considering an attack with smallpox or a hoax.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec id=\"S1049023X00006865_sec03\" sec-type=\"methods\"><jats:title><jats:bold>Methods:<\/jats:bold><\/jats:title><jats:p>A three-person game (normal and extensive form), and an in-person game are played for pre-event and post-event vaccinations of healthcare workers facing the possibility of a smallpox attack or hoax.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec id=\"S1049023X00006865_sec04\" sec-type=\"results\"><jats:title><jats:bold>Results:<\/jats:bold><\/jats:title><jats:p>Full pre-event vaccinations of all targeted healthcare workers are not necessary to deter a terrorist attack. In addition, coordinating vaccinations among healthcare workers, individual healthcare worker risk aversion, and the degree to which terrorists make the last move based on specific information on the status of pre-event vaccination all greatly impact strategy selection for both sides. A Nash Equilibrium of pre- and post-event vaccination strategies among a large number of healthcare professionals will tend to eliminate the advantage (of the terrorists) of a smallpox attack over a hoax, but may not eliminate some probability of a smallpox attack.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec id=\"S1049023X00006865_sec05\" sec-type=\"conclusion\"><jats:title><jats:bold>Conclusions:<\/jats:bold><\/jats:title><jats:p>Emergency preparedness would benefit from game theory analysis of the costs and payoffs of specific terrorism\/counter-terrorism strategies.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1017\/s1049023x00006865","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,8,24]],"date-time":"2016-08-24T03:52:07Z","timestamp":1472010727000},"page":"231-238","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Smallpox, Risks of Terrorist Attacks, and the Nash Equilibrium: An Introduction to Game Theory and an Examination of the Smallpox Vaccination Program"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"24","author":[{"given":"Richard","family":"Hamilton","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Roger","family":"McCain","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2012,6,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"S1049023X00006865_ref012","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1553-2712.2007.tb01785.x"},{"key":"S1049023X00006865_ref014","first-page":"406","article-title":"Inductive reasoning and bounded rationality (The El Farol Problem)","volume":"84","author":"Arthur","year":"1994","journal-title":"Amer Econ Review (Papers and Proceedings)"},{"key":"S1049023X00006865_ref011","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/524380"},{"key":"S1049023X00006865_ref016","volume-title":"Game Theory for the Social Sciences","author":"Moulin","year":"1982"},{"key":"S1049023X00006865_ref002","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/1046878103255492"},{"key":"S1049023X00006865_ref008","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2458-3-20"},{"key":"S1049023X00006865_ref005","unstructured":"5. Ehud Kalai : Presidential Address, Second World Congress of the Game Theory Society \u201cWhat would von Neumann and Morgenstern Say?\u201d Marseille, France, July 2004.The story is A. Conan Doyle, \u201cThe Final Problem.\u201d"},{"key":"S1049023X00006865_ref001","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0899-8256(02)00545-6"},{"key":"S1049023X00006865_ref006","volume-title":"The Smallpox Vaccination Program: Public Health in an Age of Terrorism","author":"Baciu","year":"2005"},{"key":"S1049023X00006865_ref007","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0196-0644(03)00811-4"},{"key":"S1049023X00006865_ref009","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1071\/NB03059"},{"key":"S1049023X00006865_ref017","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/0198774729.001.0001"},{"key":"S1049023X00006865_ref013","first-page":"159","article-title":"Games with incomplete information played by \u201cBayesian\u201dplayers, I-III. Part I","volume":"14","author":"Harsanyi","year":"1967","journal-title":"The basic model. Management Science"},{"key":"S1049023X00006865_ref015","first-page":"32","volume-title":"Genetic Algorithms and Simulated Annealing","author":"Axelrod","year":"1987"},{"key":"S1049023X00006865_ref003","volume-title":"Prisoner's Dilemma","author":"Poundstone","year":"1992"},{"key":"S1049023X00006865_ref004","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1969529"},{"key":"S1049023X00006865_ref010","unstructured":"10. Kuhles DJ , Ackman DM : The Federal Smallpox Vaccination Program: Where do we go from here? Public Health: Small Pox Program Web Exclusive. Health Affairs 22 October 2003. Pub Med Citation Health Aff (Millwood). 2003 Jul-Dec;Suppl Web Exclusives:W3-503-10. available at http:\/\/content.healthaffairs.org\/cgi\/reprint\/hlthaff.w3.503v1. Accessed on December 8, 2007"}],"container-title":["Prehospital and Disaster Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/S1049023X00006865","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,30]],"date-time":"2019-04-30T09:16:56Z","timestamp":1556615816000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/S1049023X00006865\/type\/journal_article"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2009,6]]},"references-count":17,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2009,6]]}},"alternative-id":["S1049023X00006865"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/s1049023x00006865","relation":{},"ISSN":["1049-023X","1945-1938"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1049-023X","type":"print"},{"value":"1945-1938","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2009,6]]}}}