{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,26]],"date-time":"2026-08-26T22:21:28Z","timestamp":1787782888079,"version":"build-2784847793"},"edition-number":"1","reference-count":1856,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press","isbn-type":[{"value":"9780521792608","type":"print"},{"value":"9780511808098","type":"electronic"},{"value":"9780521796798","type":"print"}],"license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2012,6,5]],"date-time":"2012-06-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1338854400000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":3620,"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/terms"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2002,7,8]]},"DOI":"10.1017\/cbo9780511808098.004","type":"book-chapter","created":{"date-parts":[[2012,6,18]],"date-time":"2012-06-18T14:18:59Z","timestamp":1340029139000},"page":"49-81","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1707,"title":["Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgment"],"prefix":"10.1017","author":[{"given":"Daniel","family":"Kahneman","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shane","family":"Frederick","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"56","reference":[{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1836","unstructured":"Yates, J. F., & Patalano, A. L. (1999). Decision making and aging. In Processing of medical information in aging patients: Cognitive and human factors perspectives (pp. 31\u201354), D. C. Park, R. W. Morrell, & K. Shifren (Eds.), Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [15]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1824","unstructured":"Yates, J. F. (1994). Subjective probability accuracy analysis. In Subjective probability (pp. 381\u2013410), G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.), Chichester, U.K.: Wiley. [15,39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1822","unstructured":"Yates, J. F. (1990). Judgment and decision making. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall. [13,14,15]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1770","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bdm.3960080105"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1765","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.56.2.161"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1839","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0165-0114(78)90029-5"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1838","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00401706.1972.10488878"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1831","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Yates, J. F., McDaniel, L. S., & Brown, E. S. (1991). Probabalistic forecasts of stock prices and earnings: The hazards of nascent expertise. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 49, 60\u201379 [39]","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(91)90042-R"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1815","unstructured":"Wyer, R. S., & Srull, T. K. (1989). Memory and cognition in its social context. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [5]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1795","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wolford, G., Taylor, H. A., & Beck, J. R. (1990). The conjunction fallacy? Memory and Cognition, 18, 47\u201353. [3]","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03202645"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1788","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167293193010"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1762","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167288141016"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1851","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2601(08)60369-X"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1833","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(89)90048-4"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1823","unstructured":"Yates, J. F. (Ed.). (1992). Risk-taking behavior. Chichester, U.K.: Wiley. [39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1843","unstructured":"Zajonc, R. B. (1997). Emotions. In Handbook of social psychology, 4th Ed. (pp. 591\u2013632) D. T. Gilbert, S. T. Fiske, & G. Lindzey (Eds.). New York: Oxford University Press. [2,30]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1819","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-0720(199712)11:6<495::AID-ACP481>3.0.CO;2-J"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1813","unstructured":"Wyer, R. S., & Gordon, S. E. (1984). The cognitive representation of social information. In Handbook of social cognition (Vol. 2, pp. 73\u2013150), R. S. Wyer & T. K. Srull (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1777","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.90.2.245"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1816","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0001-6918(93)E0072-A"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1812","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(76)90026-X"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1814","unstructured":"Wyer, R. S., & Srull, T. K. (1981). Category accessibility: Some theoretical and empirical issues concerning the processing of social stimulus information. In Social cognition: The Ontario symposium (Vol. 1, pp. 161\u2013197), E. T. Higgins, C. R. Herman, & M. P. Zanna (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1775","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02287917"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1773","unstructured":"Wicklund, R. A. (1974). Freedom and reactance. Potomac, MD: Erlbaum. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1846","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00224545.1967.9919760"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1840","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0277(82)90036-1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1809","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1559-1816.1988.tb00041.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1789","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.60.2.181"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1844","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/208905"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1791","unstructured":"Windschitl, P. D., & Weber, E. U. (1999). The interpretation of \u201clikely\u201d depends on the context, but \u201c70%\u201d is 70% - right?: The influence of associative processes on perceived certainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 25, 1514\u20131533. [22]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1772","unstructured":"Wickens, C. D. (1984). Engineering psychology and human performance. Columbus, OH: Merrill. [12]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1768","unstructured":"Wetherick, N. E. (1971). Representativeness in a reasoning problem: A reply to Shapiro. Bulletin of the British Psychological Society, 24, 213\u2013214. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1766","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1207\/s15324834basp0103_2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1853","unstructured":"Zusne, L., & Jones, W. H. (1982). Anomalistic psychology. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [34]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1849","unstructured":"Zillman, D. (1978). Attribution and misattribution of excitatory reactions. In New directions in attribution research (Vol. 2, pp. 335\u2013368), J. H. Harvey, W. I. Ickes, & R. F. Kidd (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [5, 29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1826","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1997.2696"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1811","unstructured":"Wyer, R. S., & Carlston, D. (1979). Social cognition, inference, and attribution. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1779","unstructured":"Wilson, J. Q. (1989). Bureaucracy: What government agencies do and why they do it. New York: Basic Books. [32]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1758","unstructured":"Weinstein, N. D. (1998b). References on optimistic biases about risk, unrealistic optimism, and perceived invulnerability. Unpublished manuscript, Rutgers University. [19]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1847","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0024-6301(82)90024-3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1821","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(82)90237-9"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1800","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/11106-005"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1835","unstructured":"Yates, J. F., & Lee, J.-W. (1996). Chinese decision making. In The handbook of Chinese psychology (pp. 338\u2013351), M. H. Bond (Ed.), Hong Kong: Oxford University Press. [15]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1820","unstructured":"Yaniv, L., & Foster, D. (1990). Graininess of judgment: an accuracy-informativeness tradeoff. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 21, 1509\u20131521. [3]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1810","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-6133.6.5.453"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1781","unstructured":"Wilson, T. D. (1985). Strangers to ourselves: The origins and accuracy of beliefs about one's own mental states. In Attribution: Basic issues and applications (pp. 9\u201336), J. H. Harvey & G. Weary (Eds.). Orlando, FL: Academic Press. [16]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1780","unstructured":"Wilson, R. (1979). Analyzing the risks of everyday life. Technology Review, 81(4), 40\u201346. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1771","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167291171016"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1834","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/for.3980040110"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1782","unstructured":"Wilson, T. D. (2001). Strangers to ourselves: self-insight and the adaptive unconscious. Manuscript in preparation. [10]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1757","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Weinstein, N. D. (1998a). Accuracy of smokers' risk perceptions. Annals of Behavioral Medicine, 20, 135\u2013140. [19]","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02884459"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1778","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4757-9865-4_10"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1848","unstructured":"Zhang, B. (1992). Cultural conditionality in decision making: A prospect of probabilistic thinking. Unpublished Doctoral dissertation, Department of Information Systems, London School of Economics and Political Science, University of London, London. [15]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1802","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0169-2070(96)00674-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1796","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.40.4.650"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1794","unstructured":"Wittman, M. P. (1941). Mental efficiency levels before and after shock therapy. Elgin Papers, 4, 70\u201381. [40]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1792","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/026999397379872"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1850","unstructured":"Zimbardo, P. G., & Lieppe, M. R. (1991). The psychology of attitude change and social influence. New York: McGraw-Hill. [9]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1837","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167298244006"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1799","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1031(74)90059-6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1798","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.49.5.1169"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1852","unstructured":"Zukier, H. (1986). The paradigmatic and narrative modes in goal-guided inference. In Handbook of motivation and cognition: Foundations of social behavior (Vol. 1, pp. 465\u2013502), R. M. Sorrentino & E. T. Higgins (Eds.). New York: Guilford. [14]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1854","unstructured":"Statistical abstract of the United States (1990). Washington, DC: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. [25]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1841","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0025848"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1776","unstructured":"Williams, P A., Moyes, G. D., & Park, K. (1996). Factors affecting earnings forecast revisions for the buy-side and sell-side analyst. Accounting Horizons, 10, 112\u2013121. [38]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1743","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.279.21.1709"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1733","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ward, R. (1994, February). Maternity ward. Mirabella, 89\u201390. [34]","DOI":"10.1016\/0007-1226(94)90165-1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1745","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wegener, D. T., Petty, R. E., & Smith, S. M. (1995a). Positive mood can increase or decrease message scrutiny: The hedonic contingency view of mood and message processing. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 69, 5\u201315. [29]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0022-3514.69.1.5"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1728","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.29.2.151"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1735","unstructured":"Wason, P. C. (1966). Reasoning. In New horizons in psychology (pp. 135\u2013151), B. Foss (Ed.). Harmonsworth, U.K.: Penguin. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1702","unstructured":"Tyler, T. R. (1990). Why people obey the law. New Haven: Yale University Press. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1698","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.86.6.542"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1739","unstructured":"Wax, A. L. (1999). Discrimination as accident. Indiana Law Journal, 74, 1129\u20131236. [10]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1731","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0034234"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1708","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.79.1.66"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib811","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(92)90015-Y"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib561","unstructured":"Gigerenzer, G. (1998). Ecological intelligence: An adaptation for frequencies. In The evolution of mind (pp. 9\u201329), D. Dellarosa Cummins & C. Allen (Eds.). New York: Oxford University Press. [Introduction, 14]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib901","unstructured":"Kraut, R. E., & Higgins, E. I. (1984). Communication and social cognition. In Handbook of social cognition (Vol. 3, pp. 81\u2013127), R. S. Wyer & I. K. Srull (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1713","unstructured":"Vargas Llosa, M. (1986). My son the Rastafarian. The New York Times Magazine, February 16, pp. 20\u201328, 30, 41\u201343, 67. [30]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib761","unstructured":"Isen, A. M. (1984). Toward understanding the role of affect in cognition. In Handbook of social cognition (Vol. 3, pp. 179\u2013236), R. S. Wyer, Jr., & T. K. Srull (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib586","unstructured":"Gillies, G. T. (1983). The Newtonian Gravitational Constant: An Index of Measurements (BIPM-83\/1), Bureau International des Poids et Mesures. [37]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib749","unstructured":"Hume, D. (1955). An inquiry concerning human understanding. Indianapolis, IN: Bobbs-Merrill. (Originally published 1748) [28]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib740","unstructured":"House Subcommittee on Health and Long-Term Care (1984). Quackery: A $10 billion scandal: A report by the chairman of the Subcommittee on Health and Long-Term Care. Washington, DC: United States Government Printing Office. [34]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib326","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/224257"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib916","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1995.1046"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib472","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539-6924.1995.tb00308.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib752","unstructured":"Hurd, M., McFadden, D., Chand, H., Gan, L., Merrill, A., & Roberts, M. (1997). Consumption and savings balances of the elderly: Experimental evidence on survey response data. Paper presented at the National Bureau of Economics Research Conference on the Economics of Aging, April, 1997. [6]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1706","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.58.4.582"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib704","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0042043"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1129","unstructured":"Murphy, A. H. (1985). Probabilistic weather forecasting. In Probability, statistics, and decision making in the atmospheric sciences (pp. 337\u2013377), A. H. Murphy & R. W. Katz (Eds.). Boulder, CO: Westview Press. [25]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib816","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kahneman, D. (2000c). A psychological point of view: Violations of rational rules as a diagnostic of mental processes (Commentary on Stanovich and West). Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 23, 681\u2013683. [2]","DOI":"10.1017\/S0140525X00403432"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib541","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1031(89)90019-X"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib304","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.76.3.377"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib800","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-7393.13.2.230"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib200","unstructured":"Budescu, D. V., Erev, I., & Wallsten, T. S. (1997). On the importance of random error in the study of probability judgment. Part I: New theoretical developments. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 157\u2013171. [39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib723","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0079-7421(08)60464-8"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib360","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01207052"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib058","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-6133.10.6.432"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib699","unstructured":"Helmholtz, H. von (1903). Popular lectures on scientific subjects (E. Atkinson, trans.). New York: Green. (Originally published 1881.) [1]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib782","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01065313"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib770","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"James, W. (1890\/1950). The principles of psychology. New York: Dover Publications. [22, 32]","DOI":"10.1037\/10538-000"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib501","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fodor, J. A. (2000). The mind doesn't work that way: The scope and limits of computational psychology, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [Introduction]","DOI":"10.7551\/mitpress\/4627.001.0001"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib764","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.55.5.710"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1740","unstructured":"Weber, M. (1978). Economy and society. G. Roth & K. Wittich (Eds.). Berkeley: University of California Press. [32]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib731","unstructured":"Hofstadter, D. R. (1979). Godel, Escher, Bach: An eternal golden braid. New York: Basic Books. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib777","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Jepson, C., Krantz, D. H., & Nisbett, R. E. (1983). Inductive reasoning: Competence or skill? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 6, 494\u2013501. [28]","DOI":"10.1017\/S0140525X00017180"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib061","unstructured":"Atkinson, J. W. (1964). An introduction to motivation. Princeton, NJ: Van Nostrand. [19, 35]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1338","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1031(77)90049-X"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib698","unstructured":"Hejmadi, A., Rozin, P., & Siegal, M. (2000). Development of the concept of contagious essence in Indian and American children. Unpublished manuscript. [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib176","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1996.0021"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib776","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511809477.016"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib762","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2601(08)60415-3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib867","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Keysar, B. (2000). The illusory transparency of intention: does June understand what Mark means because he means it? Discourse Processes, 29, 161\u2013172. [8]","DOI":"10.1207\/S15326950dp2902_4"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib734","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(92)90002-J"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1052","unstructured":"McClelland, A. G. R., & Bolger, F. (1994). The calibration of subjective probabilities: Theories and models 1980\u201394. In Subjective probability (pp. 453\u2013482), G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.). Chichester, U.K.: Wiley. [27]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib808","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kahneman, D. (1981). Who shall be the arbiter of our intuitions? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 4, 339\u2013340. [24]","DOI":"10.1017\/S0140525X00009195"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib759","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-6494.1953.tb01775.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib743","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1995.1054"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib735","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.90.2.197"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1830","unstructured":"Yates, J. F., Lee, J.-W., Shinotsuka, H., & Sieck, W. R. (2000). The argument recruitment model: Explaining general knowledge overconfidence and its cross-cultural variations. Working paper, Department of Psychology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. [15]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1620","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167298249001"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1258","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X9101100303"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib127","unstructured":"Beyth-Marom, R., Fischhoff, B., Quadrel, M. J., & Furby L. (1991). Teaching adolescents decision making. In Teaching decision making to adolescents (pp. 19\u201360), J. Baron & R. Brown (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib797","unstructured":"Jones, E. E., & Nisbett, R. E. (1972). The actor and the observer: Divergent perceptions of the causes of behavior. In Attribution: Perceiving the causes of behavior (pp. 79\u201394), E. E. Jones, D. E. Kanouse, H. H. Kelley, R. E. Nisbett, S. Valins, & B. Weiner (Eds.). Morristown, NJ: General Learning Press. [13,14, 20, 36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib943","unstructured":"Lazarus, R. S. (1985). The costs and benefits of denial. In Stress and coping: An anthology (2nd ed., pp. 154\u2013173), A. Monat & R. S. Lazarus (Eds.), New York: Columbia University Press. [16]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib813","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S1352325200000689"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1437","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ejsp.2420170107"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib793","unstructured":"Jones, E. E. (1990). Interpersonal Perception. New York: W. H. Freeman & Co., Publishers. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1845","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Zarnowitz, V. (1985). Rational expectations and macroeconomic forecasts. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 3, 293\u2013311. [25]","DOI":"10.1080\/07350015.1985.10509462"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib754","unstructured":"Ichheiser, G. (1949). Misunderstandings in human relations: A study in false social perception. American Journal of Sociology, 55 (Suppl.). [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib804","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-0771(199709)10:3<189::AID-BDM258>3.0.CO;2-4"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib713","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.43.1.35"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib741","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.35.8.903"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1786","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.69.1.16"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib186","unstructured":"Brooks, L. R. (1987). Decentralized control of categorization: The role of prior processing episodes. In Concepts reconsidered: The ecological and intellectual bases of categories U. Neisser (Ed.). New York: Cambridge University Press. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib874","unstructured":"Keysar, B., & Henly, A. S. (1998). Speakers overestimate the transparency of their intention. In The 39th Annual Meeting of the Psychonomics Society, November. Dallas, TX. [8]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1562","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Stanovich, K. E., & West, R. F. (1998c). Individual differences in rational thought. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 127, 161\u2013188. [24]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0096-3445.127.2.161"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib712","unstructured":"Higgins, E. T. (1996). Knowledge: Accessibility, applicability, and salience. In Social psychology: handbook of basic principles (pp. 133\u2013168), E. T. Higgins & A. Kruglanski (Eds.). New York: Guilford. [5]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib753","unstructured":"Hynes, M., & Vanmarcke, E. (1976). Reliability of Embankment Performance Prediction. Paper presented at the ASCE Engineering Mechanics Division Specialty Conference, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. [37]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib805","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-7393.25.4.1038"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib693","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/cogp.1998.0708"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1254","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.219.4587.913"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib781","unstructured":"Social Science Research Institute, University of Southern California. [31]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1007","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/14640749508401384"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib701","unstructured":"Helson, H. (1964). Adaptation level theory: An experimental and systematic approach to behavior. New York: Harper. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib505","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00302333"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib099","first-page":"241","article-title":"Graphology and personality, \u201cLet the buyer beware.\u201d","volume":"13","author":"Basil","year":"1989","journal-title":"Skeptical Inquirer"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib720","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9780470998519.ch9"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib771","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/11060-000"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1668","unstructured":"Tolman, E. C. (1937). Purposive behavior in man and animals. New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1272","unstructured":"Pronin, E., & Ross, L. (1999). Two views of romantic break-ups: Biased perceptions of the clarity of intimate communications. Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib778","unstructured":"Jervis, R. (1976). Perception and misperception in international politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. [8, 42]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib530","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.79.4.477"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib746","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-0771(199806)11:2<107::AID-BDM292>3.0.CO;2-Y"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib736","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-6494.1995.tb00317.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib709","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hertel, G., Neuhof, J., Theuer, T., & Kerr, N. L. (2000). Mood effects on cooperation in small groups: Does positive mood simply lead to more cooperation? Cognition and Emotion, 14, 441\u2013472. [29]","DOI":"10.1080\/026999300402754"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib023","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.46.2.280"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib714","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/jesp.1995.1011"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib711","unstructured":"Heuer, R. J. (1999). The psychology of intelligence analysis. Langley VA: Center for the Study of Intelligence. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib489","unstructured":"Fischhoff, B., & Whipple, C. (1981). Risk Assessment: Evaluating error in subjective estimates. Environmental Professional, 3, 277\u2013291. [37]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib681","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2937910"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib801","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1559-1816.1987.tb00312.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib645","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1996.0023"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib663","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1920)48<645:FPIPOP>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib300","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0883-9026(88)90020-1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib603","unstructured":"Goldberg, L. R. (1965). \u201cDiagnosticians vs. diagnostic signs: The diagnosis of psychosis vs. neurosis from the MMPI,\u201d Psychological Monographs, 79 (9, Whole No. 602). [40]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib674","unstructured":"Hanson, J. D., & Kysar, D. A. (1999b). Taking behavioralism seriously: The problem of market manipulation. New York University Law Review, 74 (3), 630\u2013749. [23, 41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1639","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tetlock, P. E. (1983b). Accountability and perseverance of first impressions. Social Psychology Quarterly, 46, 285\u2013292. [32]","DOI":"10.2307\/3033716"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib686","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.37.1.25"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib669","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0021798"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib688","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.27.12.1435"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib117","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/opre.33.1.1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib660","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1031(66)90063-1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib655","unstructured":"Gardenfors, P., & Sahlin, N. E. (Eds.). (1989). Decision, probability and utility. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib652","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/arclin\/5.4.373"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib637","unstructured":"Grether, D. M., & Plott, C. R. (1979). Economic theory of choice and the preference reversal phenomenon. American Economic Review, 69, 623\u2013638. [Introduction, 12]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib684","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-3445.108.3.356"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib661","unstructured":"Halbower, C. C. (1955). A comparison of actuarial vs. clinical prediction to classes discriminated by the Minnesota multiphasic personality inventory. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, University of Minnesota. [40]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1366","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0031878"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib790","unstructured":"Johnson-Laird, P. N., & Wason, P. C. (1977). A theoretical analysis of insight into a reasoning task. In Thinking, P. N. Johnson-Laird & P. C. Wason (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [1]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib642","unstructured":"Griffin, D. W., & Kahneman, D. (in press). Judgmental heuristics: Human strength or human weakness? In The Psychology of Human Strengths (pp. 319\u2013359), L. Aspinwall & U. Staudinger (Eds.). APA Books. [Introduction]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1390","unstructured":"Sanna, L. J., Schwarz, N., & Stocker, S. L. (2001). When debiasing backfires: Accessible content and accessibility experiences in debiasing hindsight through mental simulations. Manuscript under review. [5]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib673","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hanson, J. D., & Kysar, D. A. (1999a). Taking behavioralism seriously: Some evidence of market manipulation. Harvard Law Review, 112(7), 1420\u20131572. [23, 41]","DOI":"10.2307\/1342413"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib975","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-6486.1983.tb00201.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib434","unstructured":"Evans, J. St. B. T., Newstead, S. E., & Byrne, R. M. J. (1993). Human reasoning: The psychology of deduction. Hove, England: Erlbaum. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib670","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.51.1.37"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1479","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1996.0001"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib667","unstructured":"Hammond, K. R., & Brehmer, B. (1973). Quasi-rationality and distrust: Implications for international conflict. In Human judgment and social interaction, L. Rappoport & D. A. Summers (Eds.). New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston. [1]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib632","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.74.6.1464"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1407","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9280.00066"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib207","unstructured":"Buehler, R., & McFarland, C. (in press). Intensity bias in affective forecasts: The role of temporal focus. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin. [14]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib656","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167299025007001"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib015","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00080.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib751","unstructured":"Huntley, J. (1990). The elements of astrology. Shaftesbury, Dorset, U.K.: Element Books Limited. [34]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib814","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kahneman, D. (2000a). Evaluation by moments: Past and future. In Choices, values, & Frames, D. Kahneman & A. Tversky (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [30]","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511803475"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib467","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.30.7.823"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib978","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1996.0028"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib633","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Greenwald, A. G., Pratkanis, A. R., Leippe, M. R., & Baumgardner, M. H. (1986). Under what conditions does theory obstruct research progress? Psychological Review, 93, 216\u2013229. [40]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0033-295X.93.2.216"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1330","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1515\/9781400876136"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1722","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(85)90008-1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib601","unstructured":"Goldaper, S. (1990, June 9). Pistons put the game on the line. The New York Times, p. C46. [21]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1343","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2601(08)60407-4"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib783","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.35.4.406"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib082","unstructured":"Bargh, J. A. (1997). The automaticity of everyday life. In The automaticity of everyday life. R. S. Wyer, Jr. (Ed.). In The automaticity of everyday life: Advances in social cognition (Vol. 10, pp. 1\u201361). R. S. Wyer, Jr. (Ed.). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum. [Introduction, 2, 30]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib896","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3325136"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib600","unstructured":"Gleicher, F, Boninger, D. S., Strathman, A., Armor, D., Hetts, J., & Ahn, M. (1995). With an eye toward the future: The impact of counterfactual thinking on affect, attitudes, and behavior. In What might have been: The social psychology of counterfactual thinking (pp. 283\u2013304), N. J. Roese & J. M. Olson (Eds.). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [21]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib596","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.75.2.332"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib575","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.59.4.601"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib579","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/10286-001"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1175","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Nisbett, R. E., & Wilson, T. D. (1977b). The halo effect: Evidence for unconscious alteration of judgments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35, 250\u2013256. [10]","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.35.4.250"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib609","unstructured":"Goldstein, W. M. (1984). The relationship between judgment and choice. Unpublished Doctoral dissertation, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. [23]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib627","unstructured":"Green, M., Visser, P., & Tetlock, P. E. (1999). Copingwith accountability cross-pressures: Low-effort evasive tactics and high-effort quests for complex compromises. Unpublished manuscript, The Ohio State University. [32]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib311","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1540-4560.1996.tb01847.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib598","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0010-0277(00)00133-5"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib085","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.63.2.320"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1114","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00139.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib593","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167295212008"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib848","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Keane, M. P., & Runkle, D. E. (1998). Are financial analysts' forecasts of corporate profits rational? Journal of Political Economy, 106, 768\u2013805. [38]","DOI":"10.1086\/250029"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib577","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.62.1.18"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib626","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0928-7655(97)00031-6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1725","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.85.2.267"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib074","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0001-6918(80)90046-3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1828","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1996.0012"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib659","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0191-8869(94)90212-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1589","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ejsp.2420180505"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib612","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.54.7.493"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib594","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.78.2.211"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib768","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-3445.110.3.306"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1345","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.96.2.341"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib611","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/14792779343000059"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1433","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ijpor\/9.2.191"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib796","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1031(67)90034-0"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib592","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.102.2.379"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib584","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02032160"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1171","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.90.4.339"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1742","unstructured":"Wedding, D. (1983). Comparison of statistical and actuarial models for predicting lateralization of brain damage. International Journal of Clinical Neuropsychology, 5, 15\u201320. [40]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib581","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.54.5.733"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1580","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/for.3980130703"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib373","unstructured":"Dreman, D. (1999). Contrarian investment strategies: The next generation. New York: Simon & Schuster. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib568","unstructured":"Gilbert, D. (1989). Thinking lightly about others: Automatic components of the social inference process. In Unintended thought (pp. 189\u2013211), J. Uleman & J. A. Bargh (Eds.). New York: Guilford. [2,7]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib572","unstructured":"Gilbert, D. T. (1999). What the mind's not. In Dual process theories in social psychology (pp. 3\u201311), S. Chaiken & Y. Trope (Eds.). New York: Guilford. [2, 9]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib877","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0016-3287(82)90038-6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib940","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.39.1.29"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1759","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-6133.14.2.132"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib628","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/jmla.1994.1024"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib773","unstructured":"Janis, I. J., & Mann, L. (1977). Decision making: A psychological analysis of conflict, choice, and commitment. New York: Free Press. [21, 32]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib647","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-0663.68.4.501"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib088","unstructured":"Baron, J. (1994b). Thinking and Deciding, 2nd ed. New York: Cambridge University Press. [6]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib585","unstructured":"Gill, M., & Gilbert, D. T. (1999). Sequential operations in self-perception. Unpublished data. [9]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1492","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(92)90020-8"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1566","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01072613"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib694","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00057884"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib199","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2466\/pr0.1992.70.3c.1022"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib599","unstructured":"Glaser, R. (1990). Expertise. In The Blackwell dictionary of cognitive psychology (p. 139), M. W. Eysenk, A. N. Ellis, E. Hunt, & P. Johnson-Laird (Eds.). Oxford, U.K.: Blackwell Reference. [39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib841","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.103.3.582"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib416","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Epley, N., & Dunning, D. (2000). Feeling \u201cholier than thou\u201d: Are self-serving assessments produced by errors in self- or social prediction? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 79, 861\u2013875. [14, 36]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0022-3514.79.6.861"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1284","unstructured":"Rabin, M. (1997). Psychology and economics. Berkeley Department of Economics Working Paper. No. 97\u2013251. [30]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib548","unstructured":"Garner, W. R. (1962). Uncertainty and structure as psychological concepts. New York: Wiley. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib547","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(90)90036-9"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib034","unstructured":"Angier, N. (1999). Woman: An intimate geography. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company. [30]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib293","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0140525X00057940"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib830","unstructured":"Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979a). Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures. TIMS Studies in Management Science, 12, 313\u2013327. [14, 19, 25]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib696","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0055425"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib524","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.65.1.45"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1369","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9280.1990.tb00246.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib509","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.71.3.421"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1475","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1997.2706"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib787","unstructured":"Johnson, M. K., & Sherman, S. J. (1990). Constructing and reconstructing the past and the future in the present. In Handbook of motivation and social cognition: Foundations of social behavior (Vol. 2, pp. 482\u2013526), E. T. Higgins & R. M. Sorrentino (Eds.). New York: Guilford Press. [14]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1453","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Sheeran, P., Orbell, S., & Trafimow, D. (1999). Does the temporal stability of behavioral intentions moderate intention-behavior and past behavior-future behavior relations? Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 25, 721\u2013730. [14]","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167299025006007"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1417","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-3445.110.1.101"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib542","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167284101009"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib513","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00055335"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib355","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2214\/ajr.132.1.95"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib520","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/27757478"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib060","unstructured":"Astington, J., Harris, P., & Olson, D. (Eds.). (1988). Developing theories of mind. New York: Cambridge University Press. [8]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib785","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167286121006"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib126","unstructured":"Beyth-Marom, R., Dekel, S. K., Gombo, R., & Shaked, M. (1985). An elementary approach to thinking under uncertainty. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib989","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.95.4.492"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib554","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(86)90042-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib535","unstructured":"Froome, & Essen. (1973). The Velocity of Light and Radio Waves. London: Academic. [37]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib672","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/224479"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib540","unstructured":"Furnham, A. F (1988). Lay theories. London: Pergamon Press. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib029","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0025907"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib280","unstructured":"Clore, G. L., Schwarz, N., & Conway, M. (1994). Affective causes and consequences of social information processing. In Handbook of social cognition (2nd ed.; Vol. 1, pp. 323\u2013418), R. S. Wyer & T. K. Srull (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib695","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Heider, F. (1958). The psychology of interpersonal relations, New York: Wiley. [Introduction, 9, 20]","DOI":"10.1037\/10628-000"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib525","unstructured":"Freud, A. (1936). Ego and the mechanisms of defense (Rev. ed., 1966, trans., C. Baines). New York: International Universities Press. [16]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib310","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.83.2.85"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib518","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.54.1.74"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib529","unstructured":"Friedman, N., & Goldszmit, L. (1996). A software for learning Bayesian networks. (Not released for public use.) [31]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib745","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hsee, C. K. (1996b). The evaluability hypothesis: An explanation for preference reversals between joint and separate evaluations of alternatives. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67, 242\u2013257. [23]","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1996.0077"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib003","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-015-7622-2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1224","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781139173933"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib549","unstructured":"Garner, W. R. (1970). Good patterns have few alternatives. American Scientist, 58, 34\u201342. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib829","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0034747"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1085","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/rfs\/12.4.653"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib532","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1207\/s15327663jcp0803_05"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1396","unstructured":"Scanlon, M., & Mauro J. (1992, November\/December). The lowdown on handwriting analysis: Is it for real? Psychology Today, 80, 46\u201353. [34]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib668","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0040736"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib516","unstructured":"Frame, D. M. (transl.). (1943). The complete essays of Montaigne. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. [8]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1387","unstructured":"Samuels, R., Stich, S., & Bishop, M. (in press). Ending the rationality wars: How to make disputes about human rationality disappear. In Common sense, reasoning and rationality: Vancouver studies in cognitive science, (Vol. 11) R. Elio (Ed.). New York: Oxford University Press. [Introduction]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib587","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.44.6.1110"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib537","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1521\/soco.1982.1.3.205"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib502","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0277(88)90031-5"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1513","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-010-1276-8_2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1537","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1521\/jscp.1989.8.2.130"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib556","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gigerenzer, G. (1991b). From tools to theories: A heuristic of discovery in cognitive psychology. Psychological Review, 98, 254\u2013267. [Introduction, 24, 27]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0033-295X.98.2.254"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib560","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.103.3.592"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib514","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2946693"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib538","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.101.1.75"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib527","unstructured":"Freud, S. (1950). Totem and taboo: some points of agreement between the mental lives of savages and neurotics. (J. Strachey, Trans.). New York: W. W. Norton & Co. (Original work published 1913) [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib350","unstructured":"Dennett, D. C. (1981). Three kinds of intentional psychology. In Reduction, time and reality, R. Healey (Ed.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [28]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib979","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781139173223.010"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib812","unstructured":"Kahneman, D. (1995). Varieties of counterfactual thinking. In What might have been: The social psychology of counterfactual thinking (pp. 375\u2013396), N. Roese & J. Olson (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [35]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib629","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.35.7.603"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib052","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2601(08)60075-1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib563","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.102.4.684"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib534","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1993.1017"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib413","unstructured":"Elster, J., & Loewenstein, G. (1992). Utility from memory and anticipation. In Choice over time (pp. 213\u2013234), J. Elster & G. Loewenstein (Eds.). New York: Russell Sage Foundation. [14]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1161","unstructured":"Nevo, B. (Ed.). (1986). Scientific aspects of graphology: A handbook. Springfield, IL: Charles C. Thomas. [34]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib519","unstructured":"Frank, R. H., & Cook, P. (1995). The winner-take-all society. New York: Free Press. [35]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib508","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.53.1.53"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib528","unstructured":"Freud, S. (1966). The Dream Work. In Introductory lectures on psychoanalysis (Lecture \u216a, pp. 170\u2013183), J. Strachey (Ed. & Trans.). New York: W. W. Norton & Co. (Original work published 1920) [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib802","unstructured":"Jungermann, H. (1986). The two camps on rationality. In Judgment and decision making (pp. 627\u2013641), H. R. Arkes & K. R. Hammond (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib553","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167295212006"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib531","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Friedrich, J. (1996). On seeing oneself as less self serving than others: The ultimate self serving bias? Teaching of Psychology, 23, 107\u2013109. [36]","DOI":"10.1207\/s15328023top2302_9"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib544","unstructured":"Gallagher, D., & Clore, G. L. (1985, May). Effects of fear and anger on judgments of risk and blame. Paper presented at the meetings of the Midwestern Psychological Association, Chicago. [29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib552","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-6133.10.3.173"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib453","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0049073"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1521","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.30.4.464"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1618","unstructured":"Taylor, B. N., Parker, W H., & Langenberg, D. N. (1969). The fundamental constants and quantum electrodynamics. New York: Academic Press. [37]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib475","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.jncimonographs.a024213"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib466","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fischhoff, B. (1982b). For those condemned to study the past: Heuristics and biases in hindsight. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 201\u2013208), D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [5,19]","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511809477.024"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib452","unstructured":"Festinger, L. (Ed.). (1964). Conflict, decision, and dissonance. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. [42]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib654","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.37.2.147"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib589","unstructured":"Gilovich, T. (1991). How we know what isn't so: The fallibility of human judgment in everyday life, New York: Free Press. [Introduction, 34, 41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib451","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Festinger, L. (1957). A theory of cognitive dissonance. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. [16, 36]","DOI":"10.1515\/9781503620766"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib469","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/21.31052"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib461","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.1991.03470220061027"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib700","unstructured":"Helmreich, W. B. (1992). Against all odds: Holocaust survivors and the successful lives they made in America. New York: Simon & Schuster. [16]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib435","unstructured":"Evans, J. St. B. T., & Over, D. E. (1996). Rationality and reasoning. Hove, England: Psychology Press. [Introduction, 22, 24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1416","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Schumacher, E. (1985, September 21). Death of \u201cYiyo\u201d raises passions over bullfights. The Globe and Mail, p. B9. [21]","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-349-17797-4_2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib710","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-0771(199912)12:4<275::AID-BDM323>3.0.CO;2-M"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib473","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fischhoff, B. (1996). The real world: What good is it? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 232\u2013248. [41]","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1996.0024"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1150","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2044-8295.1963.tb00857.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib679","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.38.1.165"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1470","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167298248007"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib470","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.47.4.577"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1190","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.103.2.381"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib462","unstructured":"Fischhoff, B., Slovic. P., & Lichtenstein, S. (1981). Lay foibles and expert fables in judgments about risk. In Progress in resource management and environmental planning (Vol. 3, pp. 161\u2013202), T. O'Riordan & R. K. Turner (Eds.). Chichester, U.K.: Wiley. [33]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib490","unstructured":"Fishbein, M., & Ajzen, I. (1975). Belief, attitude, intention, and behavior: An introduction to theory and research. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley [14]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib482","unstructured":"Fischhoff, B., Lichtenstein, S., Slovic, P., Derby, S. L., & Keeney R. L. (1981). Acceptable risk. New York: Cambridge University Press. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1787","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-3445.125.4.387"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib153","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.66.4.621"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1364","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/jrpe.1999.2251"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1576","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.psych.49.1.479"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib459","unstructured":"Fischer, G. W., & Hawkins, S. A. (1988). Preference reversals in multiattribute decision making: Scale compatibility, strategy compatibility, and the prominence effect. Carnegie-Mellon University. Typescript. [12]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib708","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hershey J. C, & Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1985). Probability versus certainty equivalence methods in utility measurement: are they equivalent? Management Science, 31, 1213\u20131231. [6, 8]","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.31.10.1213"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib767","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0079-7421(08)60358-8"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1659","unstructured":"Thaler, R. (1993). Quasi-rational economics. New York: Russell Sage. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1447","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bdm.3960020102"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib569","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.59.4.601"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1065","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2601(08)60319-6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib468","unstructured":"Fischhoff, B. (1988). Judgment and decision making. In The psychology of human thought (pp. 153\u2013187), R. Sternberg & E. E. Smith (Eds.). New York: Cambridge University Press. [39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib488","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00143739"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib497","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.41.4.418"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1298","unstructured":"Reber, A. S. (1993). Implicit learning and tacit knowledge. New York: Oxford University Press. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib747","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1007876907268"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib354","unstructured":"Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. (Original work published 1644.) [9]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib271","unstructured":"Clark, H. H., & Carlson, T. B. (1981). Context for comprehension. In Attention and Performance IX (pp. 313\u2013330), J. Long & A. Baddeley (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [8]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib338","unstructured":"Dawson, S. (1993). Decision-making and leadership: Heller, F Journal of Management Studies, 30 (3), 479\u2013481. [39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1472","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/01461672962212004"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1692","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1982b). Evidential impact of base rates. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 153\u2013160), D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [24,39]","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511809477.011"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib483","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/for.3980010203"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib170","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/11622-000"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib264","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-1523.7.4.928"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib879","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/cogp.1993.1003"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib367","unstructured":"Donaldson, M. (1993). Human minds: An exploration. New York: Viking Penguin. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib359","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.95.3.542"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib406","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.92.4.433"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib738","unstructured":"Hoosain, R. (1986). Perceptual processes of the Chinese. In The psychology of the Chinese people (pp. 38\u201372), M. H. Bond (Ed.), Hong Kong: Oxford University Press. [15]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib691","unstructured":"Haynes, R. B., Taylor, D. W., & Sackett, D. L. (1979). Compliance in health care. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. [4]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1801","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wortman, C. B., & Silver, R. C. (1989). The myths of coping with loss. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 57, 349\u2013357 [16]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0022-006X.57.3.349"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib588","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.59.4.623"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib619","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-5371(65)80093-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib366","unstructured":"Donaldson, M. (1978). Children's minds. London: Fontana Paperbacks. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib576","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.55.5.685"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib336","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0037613"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib446","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0028071"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib791","unstructured":"Jones, B. B., & McGillis, D. (1976). Correspondent inference and the attribution cube: A comparative appraisal. In New directions in attribution research (Vol. 1, pp. 389\u2013420), J. Harvey, W. Ickes, & R. Kidd (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1105","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/jesp.1997.1333"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib419","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9280.00372"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib230","unstructured":"Canadian Standards Association. (1997). Risk management (CSA-850). Ottawa. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib382","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/219959"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib807","unstructured":"Kahneman, D. (1973). Attention and effort. Englewood-Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall. [9]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib372","unstructured":"Dreman, D. (1979). Contrarian investment strategy. New York: Random House. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1760","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167282082002"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib763","unstructured":"Isen, A. M. (1993). Positive affect and decision making. In Handbook of emotions (pp. 261\u2013277), M. Lewis, & J. M. Haviland (Eds.). New York: Guilford Press. [23]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib357","unstructured":"Deutsch, R. M. (1977). The new nuts among the berries: How nutrition nonsense captured America. Palo Alto, CA: Ball Publishing. [34]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1543","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1521\/soco.19.4.469.20756"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib644","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(92)90013-R"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib345","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-5371(84)90410-9"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1019","unstructured":"Malkiel, B. (1990). A random walk down Wall Street. New York: Norton. [42]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1551","unstructured":"Sprinchorn, E. (1964). Ibsen: Letters and Speeches. New York: Hill and Wang. Springer, K., & Belk, A. (1994). The role of physical contact and association in early contamination sensitivity. Developmental Psychology, 30, 864\u2013868. [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1089","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.37.8.1421"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1076","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0001-6918(81)90024-X"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib515","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.44.7.879"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib417","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Epley, N., & Gilovich, T. (2000a). Anchoring and effortful adjustment from self-generated anchors. Unpublished manuscript, Cornell University. [7]","DOI":"10.1037\/e683322011-030"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib651","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/1040-3590.12.1.19"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib400","unstructured":"Edwards, W., & von Winterfeldt, D. (1986). Cognitive illusions and their implications for the law. Southern California Law Review, 59, 225\u2013276. [39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib255","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bdm.3960070402"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1704","unstructured":"U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (1981). Fault tree handbook (Catalog No. NUREG-0492) Washington, DC: NRC. [37]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib234","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-7393.16.4.665"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib185","unstructured":"Brooks, L. R. (1978). Nonanalytic concept formation and memory for instances. In Cognition and categorization (pp. 169\u2013215), E. Rosch & B. B. Lloyd (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib152","unstructured":"Bodenhausen, G. V., Gabriel, S., & Lineberger, M. (1999). Sadness and susceptibility to judgmental bias: The case of anchoring. Unpublished manuscript, Northwestern University. [29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib798","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.41.3.407"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1436","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1521\/soco.1991.9.1.67"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib371","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03212968"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib201","unstructured":"Budescu, D. V., Wallsten, T. S., & Au, W. T. (1997). On the importance of random error in the study of probability judgment. Part II: Applying the stochastic judgment model to detect systematic trends. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 173\u2013188. [39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib957","unstructured":"Levelt, W. J. M. (1989). Speaking: from intention to articulation. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.[8]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1421","unstructured":"Schwarz, N. (1995). Social cognition: Information accessibility and use in social judgment. In Thinking. (An Invitation to Cognitive Science, Vol. 3, 2nd ed., pp. 345- 376), E. E. Smith & D. N. Osherson (Eds.). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [5]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib786","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Johnson, M. (1987). The body in the mind. The bodily basis of meaning, imagination, and reason. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [11]","DOI":"10.7208\/chicago\/9780226177847.001.0001"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib729","unstructured":"Hoch, S. J. (1984). Availability and inference in predictive judgment. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 10, 649\u2013662. [14, 17]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib500","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/014616727900500216"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib072","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1469-8986.1974.tb00836.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib195","unstructured":"Bruner, J. S. (1966). On the conservation of liquids. In Studies in cognitive growth, J. S. Bruner, R. R. Olver, & P. M. Greenfield, et al. (Eds.), New York: Wiley. [1]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib893","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-7393.26.1.28"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib140","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.99.2.229"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib566","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511720482"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1251","unstructured":"Piattelli-Palmarini, M. (1994). Inevitable illusions: How mistakes of reason rule our minds. New York: John Wiley. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib765","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Isen, A. M., Shalker, T. E., Clark, M. S., & Karp, L. (1978). Affect, accessibility of material in memory, and behavior: A cognitive loop? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 36, 1\u201312. [29]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0022-3514.36.1.1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib913","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1031(83)90022-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib395","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0053870"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib595","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-8721.00039"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib458","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-0771(200001\/03)13:1<1::AID-BDM333>3.0.CO;2-S"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib299","unstructured":"Cooke, R. M. (1991). Experts in Uncertainty. New York: Oxford University Press. Cooley, C. H. (1902). Human nature and the social order. New York: Scribner's. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib564","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-1523.14.3.513"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib119","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0024835"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib494","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2601(08)60317-2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib225","unstructured":"Camerer, C. (1990). Do markets correct biases in probability judgment? Evidence from market experiments. In Advances in behavioral economics (Vol. 2, pp. 125\u2013172), L. Green & J. H. Kagel (Eds.). Northwood, NJ: Ablex. [13]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1026","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511598951.004"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib806","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4899-0786-8_3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib750","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.96.1.72"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib009","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(89)90017-0"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib233","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3666148"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib616","unstructured":"Good, I. J. (1971). The probabilistic explication of information, evidence surprise, causality, explanation, and utility. In Foundations of statistical inference: Proceedings on the foundations of statistical inference, V. P. Godambe & D. A. Sprott (Eds.). Toronto, Ontario: Holt, Rinchart & Winston. [1]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1239","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.34.5.874"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib133","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1422211"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib147","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-0992(199611)26:6<935::AID-EJSP798>3.0.CO;2-N"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1590","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.73.3.437"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib217","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/1076-898X.3.3.216"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib774","unstructured":"Janoff-Bulman, R., & Brickman, P. (1982). Expectations and what people learn from failure. In Expectations and actions: Expectancy-value models in psychology (pp. 207\u2013237), N. T. Feather (Ed.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [19]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib131","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1103\/PhysRev.40.207"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib935","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1993.1058"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1752","unstructured":"Weiner, B., Frieze, I., Kukla, A., Reed, L., Rest, S., & Rosenbaum, R. M. (1972). Perceiving the causes of success and failure. In Attribution: Perceiving the causes of behavior (pp. 95\u2013120), E. E. Jones, D. E. Kanouse, H. H. Kelley, R. E. Nisbett, S. Valins, & B. Weiner (Eds.). Morristown, NJ: General Learning Press. [9, 28]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib597","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(85)90010-6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1610","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00223980.1994.9712709"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1103","unstructured":"Mitchell, R., & Carson, R. (1989). Using surveys to value public goods: the contingent valuation method. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future. [2]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib148","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(91)90048-X"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib758","unstructured":"Institute of Medicine. (1999). Adolescent decision making. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1842","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.35.2.151"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1014","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.109.2.163"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib051","unstructured":"Armstrong, J. S. (Ed.). (2001). Principles of forecasting handbook. Boston: Kluwer. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib164","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0045304"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib107","unstructured":"Beach, L. R. (1990). Image theory: Decision making in personal and organizational contexts. Chichester, England: John Wiley & Sons. Ltd. [30]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib388","unstructured":"Duval, S., & Wicklund, R. A. (1972). A theory of objective self-awareness. New York: Academic Press. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib144","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.71.4.665"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib550","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-1523.8.2.325"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib180","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Brickman, P., Coates, D., Janoff-Bulman, R. J. (1978). Lottery winners and accident victims: Is happiness relative? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 36, 917- 927. [16]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0022-3514.36.8.917"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib094","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0061962"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1737","unstructured":"Watley D. J., & Vance, F L. (1974). U.S. Office of Education Cooperative Research Project No. 2022. University of Minnesota, Minneapolis. [40]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib605","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0029230"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib889","unstructured":"Koch, S. J., & Loewenstein, G. F. (1989). Outcome feedback: Hindsight and information. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 15(4), 605\u2013619. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib178","unstructured":"Brenner, L., & Rottenstreich, Y. (2000). Asymmetric support theory: Focus-dependence and context independence in likelihood judgment. Unpublished manuscript. [27]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1355","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.100.3.349"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib429","unstructured":"Evans, J. St. B. T. (1989). Bias in human reasoning: Causes and consequences. London: Erlbaum Associates. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib840","unstructured":"Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1995). Conflict resolution: A cognitive perspective. In Barriers to Conflict Resolution, K. Arrow et al. (Eds.). Chapter 3. New York: Norton. [39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib378","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1521\/soco.1991.9.1.85"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib370","unstructured":"Dowie, J. (1983). Risk. Buckinghamshire, England: Open University. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib384","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.57.6.1082"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1764","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wells, G. L. (1993). What do we know about eyewitness identification? American Psychologist, 48, 553\u2013571. [10]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0003-066X.48.5.553"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib448","unstructured":"Ferrell, W. R. (1994). Discrete subjective probabilities and decision analysis: Elicitation, calibration, and combination. In Subjective probability (pp. 411\u2013451), G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.). Chichester, U.K.: Wiley. [39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1457","unstructured":"Sherman, D. A., Kim, H., & Zajonc, R. B. (1998). Affective perseverance: Cognitions change but preferences stay the same. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Psychological Society, 1998. [23]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib150","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X9201200305"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib190","unstructured":"Brown, P., Foster, G., & Noreen, E. (1985). Security analyst multi-year earnings forecasts and the capital market. Sarasota: American Accounting Association. [38]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1180","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(87)90046-X"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib105","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0021-9010.67.5.543"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib479","unstructured":"Fischhoff, B., & Beyth, R. (1975). \u201cI knew it would happen\u201d - remembered probabilities of once-future things. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 13, 1\u201316. [7,8,19, 40]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib157","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03334026"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1394","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167298245008"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib818","unstructured":"Kahneman, D., & Knetsch, J. (1993). Anchoring or shallow inferences: The effect of format. Unpublished manuscript, University of California, Berkeley. [6]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib613","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.73.1.186"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib676","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0034978"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib137","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1994.1043"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1222","unstructured":"Payne, J. W., Bettman, J. R., & Johnson, E. J. (1990). The adaptive decision maker: Effort and accuracy in choice. In Insights in decision making: A tribute to Hillel J. Einhorn (pp. 129\u2013153), R. M. Hogarth (Ed.). Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. [31]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib622","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4159\/harvard.9780674063426"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib610","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.94.2.236"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1755","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00846146"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib173","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.107.4.943"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib139","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-6133.9.6.792"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib891","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-7393.20.2.461"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib112","unstructured":"Becker, G. (1996). The economic way of looking at behavior: The Nobel lecture. Stanford, CA: Stanford University, Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and Peace"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib398","unstructured":"Edwards, W. (1970). Comment. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 70, 291- 293. [1]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib090","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Baron, J. (1998). Judgment misguided: Intuition and error in public decision making. New York: Oxford University Press. [24,39]","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780195111088.001.0001"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1529","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.109.3.472"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1677","unstructured":"Tucker, W. (1987). Where do the homeless come from? National Review, Sept. 25, pp. 34\u201344. [31]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib399","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0044139"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1347","unstructured":"Ross, M., & Fletcher, G. J. O. (1985). Attribution and social perception. In The handbook of social psychology (3rd ed.; Vol. 2, pp. 73\u2013122), G. Lindzey & A. Aronson (Eds.). Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley. [14]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib730","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-7393.11.1-4.719"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib100","unstructured":"Bastardi, A., Ross, L., & Lepper, M. R. (1996). False polarization and the gender gap: Actual vs. assumed discrepancies in belief. Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib420","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.49.8.709"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib454","unstructured":"Fetherstonhaugh, D., Slovic, P., Johnson, S. M., & Friedrich, J. (1997). Insensitivity to the value of human life: A study of psychophysical numbing. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 14 (3), 282\u2013300. [23]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib871","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Keysar, B., & Bly, B. (1995). Intuitions of the transparency of idioms: Can one keep a secret by spilling the beans? Journal of Memory and Language, 34, 89\u2013109. [7, 8]","DOI":"10.1006\/jmla.1995.1005"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib235","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/318419a0"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib757","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ejsp.2420180507"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib284","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1103\/RevModPhys.27.363"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1174","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Nisbett, R. E., & Wilson, T. D. (1977a). Telling more than we can know: verbal reports on mental processes. Psychological Review, 84, 231\u2013259. [7, 10, 16, 41]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0033-295X.84.3.231"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1582","unstructured":"Stich, S. P. (1990). The fragmentation of reason. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib110","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.275.5304.1293"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib212","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0165-4101(97)00017-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib986","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Loffler, G. (1998). Biases in analysts' forecasts: Cognitive, strategic or second-best? International Journal of Forecasting, 14, 261\u2013275. [38]","DOI":"10.1016\/S0169-2070(98)00032-6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib038","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9280.00327"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1504","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/cogp.1997.0672"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib325","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/209045"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib224","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(81)90031-3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib471","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0169-2070(94)90069-8"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1250","unstructured":"Piaget, J., & Inhelder, B. (1975). The origin of the idea of chance in children. New York: Norton. (Originally published 1951) [28]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib108","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0001-6918(87)90034-5"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib732","unstructured":"Hofstadter, D. R. (1985). Metamagical themas: Questing for the essence of mind and pattern. New York: Basic Books. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib202","unstructured":"Buehler, R., & Griffin, D. (1996, August). Getting things done: The impact of predictions on task completion. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Psychological Association, Toronto, Canada. [14, 19]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib291","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cohen, L. J. (1981). Can human irrationality be experimentally demonstrated? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 4, 317\u2013370. [Introduction, 24, 28]","DOI":"10.1017\/S0140525X00009092"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib091","unstructured":"Baron, J., & Brown, R. (Eds.). (1991) Teaching decision making to adolescents. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib911","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.76.5.743"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib443","unstructured":"Fazio, R. H. (1995). Attitudes as object-evaluation associations: Determinants, consequences, and correlates of attitude accessibility. In Attitude strength: Antecedents and consequences (pp. 247\u2013282), R. E. Petty & J. A. Krosnick (Eds.). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum. [23]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib069","unstructured":"Baker, N. (1991). Room temperature. New York: Vintage. [35]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib410","unstructured":"Ellis, H. D. (1986). Face recall: A psychological perspective. Human Learning. Journal of Practical Research and Applications, 5, 189\u2013196. [17]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib799","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0277(82)90035-X"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib855","unstructured":"Kelley, H. H. (1972). Causal schemata and the attribution process. Morristown, NJ: General Learning Press. [29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1301","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-3959(96)02994-6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib181","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib168","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bdm.3960050306"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib169","unstructured":"Brehm, J. W. (1966). A theory of psychological reactance. New York: Academic Press. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1644","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.75.3.639"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1634","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Teigen, K. H. (1974b). Subjective sampling distributions and the additivity of estimates. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 15, 50\u201355. [25]","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9450.1974.tb00555.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib092","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Barone, D. F., Maddux, J. E., & Snyder, C. R. (1997). Social cognitive psychology: History and current domains, New York: Plenum Press. [Introduction]","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4615-5843-9"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib307","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0277(95)00664-8"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib348","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.66.5.819"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib080","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0148-2963(75)90025-9"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib839","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.39.4.341"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib076","unstructured":"Bar-Hillel, M. (1990). Back to base rates. In Insights into decision making: A tribute to Hillel J. Einhorn (pp. 200\u2013216), R. M. Hogarth (Ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib221","unstructured":"Cacioppo, J. T., Priester, J. R., & Berntson, G. G. (1993). Rudimentary determinants of attitudes. II. Arm flexion and extension have differential effects on attitudes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 5\u201317. [2, 7, 29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib383","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.58.4.568"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1024","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0277(91)90039-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1463","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.44.6.1127"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib517","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2491271"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1647","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tetlock, P. E. (2000). Cognitive biases and organizational correctives: Do both disease and cure depend on the political beholder? Administrative Science Quarterly, 45, 293\u2013316. [32]","DOI":"10.2307\/2667073"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib136","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0092070393213005"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib093","first-page":"56","article-title":"Homeopathy: Is it medicine?","volume":"12","author":"Barrett","year":"1987","journal-title":"Skeptical Inquirer"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib358","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/jeem.1996.0023"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1093","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.74.1.53"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib351","unstructured":"Dennett, D. C. (1983). True believers: The intentional strategy and why it works. Unpublished manuscript, Tufts University. [28]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib089","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1007796310463"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib895","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0140525X00041157"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1452","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4615-5089-1_7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1602","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/08870449008408145"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1574","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167295215006"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib043","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(85)90049-4"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib141","unstructured":"Bless, H. (1997). Stimmung und Denken. (Mood and reasoning.) Bern, Switzerland: Huber. [29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib014","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1031(86)90045-4"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib769","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/01461672952111004"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1584","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04684.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib027","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0077720"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib369","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3905\/jpm.1996.409572"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib327","unstructured":"Dawes, R. (1998). Judgment and choice. In Handbook of social psychology, D. Gilbert, S. Fiske, & G. Lindzey (Eds.) (pp. 497\u2013548). New York: McGraw Hill. [42]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib251","unstructured":"Chaiken, S. (1987). The heuristic model of persuasion. In Social influence: the Ontario symposium (Vol. 5, pp. 3\u201339), M. P. Zanna, J. M. Olson, & C. P. Herman (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [9]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib270","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511620539"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib533","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/art.1780290101"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib305","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0277(89)90023-1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib084","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.54.7.462"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1181","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-0771(199903)12:1<55::AID-BDM306>3.0.CO;2-M"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib232","unstructured":"Carey, S. (1985). Conceptual change in childhood. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [22]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib583","unstructured":"Gilbert, D. T., & Wilson, T. D. (2000). Miswanting: Some problems in the forecasting of future affective states. In Feeling and thinking: The role of affect in social cognition (pp. 178\u2013198), J. Forgas (Ed.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [14,16]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib001","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04010.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib030","unstructured":"Anderson, N. H. (1981). Foundations of information integration theory. New York: Academic Press. [20, 23]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib134","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/1082-989X.4.3.243"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.47.1.85"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib523","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/135753098348239"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib392","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/133759b0"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib215","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(92)90026-4"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib128","unstructured":"Bierce, A. (1914). The devil's dictionary. New York: World Publishing Company. [14]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib022","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0167-2681(98)00092-4"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1363","unstructured":"Rozin, P., Haidt, J., & McCauley C. R. (1993). Disgust. In Handbook of emotions (pp. 575\u2013594), M. Lewis & J. Haviland (Eds.). New York: Guilford. [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1384","unstructured":"Ryle, G. (1949). The concept of mind. London: Hutchinson. [9, 16]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1808","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.45.1.74"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib214","unstructured":"Busemeyer, J., Hastie, R., & Medin, D. L. (Eds.) (1995). Decision making from a cognitive perspective, San Diego: Academic Press. [23]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib363","unstructured":"DiMatteo, M. R., & DiNicola, D. D. (1982). Achieving patient compliance. New York: Pergamon Press. [4]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib057","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(92)90040-E"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib172","unstructured":"Breiman, L., Friedman, J. H., Olshen, R. A., & Stone, C. J. (1984). Classification and regression trees. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth International Group. [31]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib356","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Desvouges, W. H., Johnson, F., Dunford, R., Hudson, S., Wilson, K., & Boyle, K. (1993). Measuring resource damages with contingent valuation: Tests of validity and reliability. In Contingent valuation: A critical assessment. Amsterdam: North Holland. [2]","DOI":"10.1108\/S0573-8555(1993)0000220006"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1010","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/09541449008406197"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib677","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2466\/pr0.1965.16.2.499"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib056","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.106.3.529"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib011","unstructured":"Ainslie, G. (1992). Picoeconomics: The strategic interaction of successive motivational states within the person. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [16]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1803","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9450.1982.tb00435.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib803","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1994.1013"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1712","unstructured":"Varey, C. A., Griffin, D. W., & James, M. (1998) The effect of context on confidence. Unpublished manuscript, University of Sussex. [39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib344","unstructured":"DeKay M. L., & McClelland, G. H. (1995). Probability and utility components of endangered species preservation programs. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 2, 60\u201383. [2]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib487","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-1523.3.4.552"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1429","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.61.2.195"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1509","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.50.5.364"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib104","unstructured":"Baumhart, R. (1968). An honest profit. New York: Prentice-Hall. [18]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib073","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(73)90061-5"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1163","unstructured":"Newell, A., & Simon, H. A. (1972). Human problem solving. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall. [31]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1597","unstructured":"Suinn, R. (1976). Body thinking: psychology for Olympic champs. Psychology Today, 10, 38\u201343. [4]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib098","unstructured":"Bartlett, F. C. (1932). Remembering. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib634","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gregory, W. L., Cialdini, R. B., & Carpenter, K. M. (1982). Self-relevant scenarios as mediators of likelihood estimates and compliance: Does imagining make it so? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 43, 89\u201399. [4, 17]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0022-3514.43.1.89"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib817","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9280.1993.tb00589.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib033","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-0-12-590241-0.50007-1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1601","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00226379"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1549","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1031(91)90011-T"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib728","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.69.6.1069"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib491","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-2496(82)90034-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib319","unstructured":"Czerlinski, J. (1997). Algorithm calculation costs measured by EIPs. Manuscript, Max Planck Institute for Psychological Research, Munich. [31]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib401","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(72)90009-8"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib039","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-3445.129.4.524"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib031","unstructured":"Anderson, N. H. (1991). Contributions to Information Integration Theory. Vol. I: Cognition. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [2]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1738","unstructured":"Watson, S., & Buede, D. (1990). Decision synthesis. New York: Cambridge University Press. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib059","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1021367331817"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib780","unstructured":"John, R. S., Edwards, W., & Winterfeldt, D. von (n.d.). Equal weights, flat maxima, and trivial decisions. Research Report 80\u20132"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1192","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Odean, T. (1998). Are investors reluctant to realize their losses? Journal of Finance, 53(5), 1775\u201398. [39]","DOI":"10.1111\/0022-1082.00072"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib614","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.59.6.1119"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib047","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1031(75)90046-3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib017","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0031035"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1194","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-1523.2.4.599"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib658","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Haidt, J., Koller, S., & Dias, M. (1993). Affect, culture, and morality: Or, is it wrong to eat your dog? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 613\u2013628. [11]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0022-3514.65.4.613"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib915","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1521\/soco.1995.13.4.417"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib838","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1983). Can irrationality be intelligently discussed? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 6, 509\u2013510. [24]","DOI":"10.1017\/S0140525X00017246"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib111","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/archpsyc.1961.01710120031004"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib512","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fox, C. R., & Kahneman, D. (1992). Correlations, causes, and heuristics in surveys of life satisfaction. Social Indicators Research, 27, 221\u2013234. [27]","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00300462"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1478","unstructured":"Siegel, S. (1956). Nonparametric statistics. New York: McGraw-Hill. [33]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib657","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hagafors, R., & Brehmer, B. (1983). Does having to justify one's judgments change the nature of the judgment process? Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 31, 223\u2013232. [32]","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(83)90122-8"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib024","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.46.2.294"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib265","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(91)90010-Q"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib191","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Browne, T. (1642\/1963). Riligio. Medici. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [16]","DOI":"10.1093\/oseo\/instance.00032626"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib643","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2601(08)60333-0"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib066","first-page":"39","article-title":"Are two rationalities better than one?","volume":"16","author":"Ayton","year":"1997","journal-title":"Current Psychology of Cognition"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1640","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3033683"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib167","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-3445.127.1.3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib045","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0021-9010.73.2.305"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib744","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hsee, C. K. (1996a). Elastic justification: How unjustifiable factors influence judgments. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 66, 122\u2013129. [23]","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1996.0043"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib036","unstructured":"Appley, M. H. (Ed.). (1971). Adaptation-level theory: A symposium. New York: Academic Press. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib331","unstructured":"Dawes, R. M. (1988). Rational choice in an uncertain world, New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich. [Introduction, 13,14]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib477","unstructured":"Fischhoff, B. (2000b). Need to know: Analytical and psychological criteria. Roger Williams University Law Review. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1311","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ps.41.020190.001541"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib120","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2601(08)60024-6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib053","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0042291"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib005","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1468-5914.1984.tb00493.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib263","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(82)90260-4"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1405","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.49.3.843"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib125","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/for.3980010305"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib558","unstructured":"Gigerenzer, G. (1993). The bounded rationality of probabilistic mental models. In Rationality: Psychological and philosophical perspectives (pp. 284\u2013313), K. Manktelow & D. Over (Eds.). London: Routledge. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib340","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1540-6261.1987.tb04569.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib208","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.67.3.366"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1295","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/1076-898X.1.1.34"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1316","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Robins, R. W., & Craik, K. H. (1993). Is there a citation bias in the judgment and decision literature? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 54, 225\u2013244. [Introduction]","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1993.1011"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib297","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/107769907905600420"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib063","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-0-585-34290-0_5"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib269","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(79)90020-3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib687","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0057880"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1099","unstructured":"Miller, N. E., & Dollard, J. (1946). Social learning and imitation. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. [32]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib455","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00309212"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib952","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.125.2.255"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib037","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-0771(199803)11:1<19::AID-BDM277>3.0.CO;2-B"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib892","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1996.0034"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib177","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-0771(199906)12:2<141::AID-BDM312>3.0.CO;2-C"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib188","unstructured":"Broome, J. (1990). Should a rational agent maximize expected utility? In The limits of rationality (pp. 132\u2013145), K. S. Cook & M. Levi (Eds.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib081","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.43.3.425"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1120","unstructured":"Morris, P. (1997). Communities of assent and descent. Massah; Journey. Journal of the New Zealand Council of Christians and Jews, 3 (Winter), 2\u20134. [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib114","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0079004"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib903","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1229191"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib151","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9280.1990.tb00226.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib055","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.105.3.442"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib460","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fischer, G. W., Morgan, G. M., Fischhoff, B., Nair, I., & Lave, L. B. (1991). What risks are people concerned about? Risk Analysis, 11, 303\u2013314. [41]","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539-6924.1991.tb00606.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib257","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0024670"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib324","unstructured":"Davies, T. (Ed.), (1996). Comparing environmental risks. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1077","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0030773"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1357","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-8721.ep10772690"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib272","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(72)90019-9"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib649","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/14640748308402486"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib431","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03196976"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib631","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0021-9010.72.2.315"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib008","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0885-2014(91)90036-D"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib480","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.90.3.239"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib010","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.29.10.1113"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib187","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-3445.120.3.278"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib380","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1103\/RevModPhys.25.691"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1022","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.38.2.231"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib044","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"120","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X9501500204","article-title":"The covariance decomposition of the probability score and its use in evaluating prognostic estimates","volume":"15","author":"Arkes","year":"1995","journal-title":"Medical Decision Making"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib689","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.107.3.311"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib286","unstructured":"Cohen, J. (1969). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences. San Diego: Academic Press. [2]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib721","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/1076-898X.5.2.205"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib526","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/10561-000"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib240","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3053536"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1774","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wiggins, J. S. (1981). Clinical and statistical prediction: Where are we and where do we go from here? Clinical Psychology Review, 1, 3\u201318. [40]","DOI":"10.1002\/j.2164-6163.1981.tb00071.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib087","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0140525X0003301X"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib484","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1207\/S15327760JPFM0202_04"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib132","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/0034-4885\/8\/1\/307"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib381","unstructured":"Dun & Bradstreet. (1967). Patterns of success in managing a business. New York: Dun & Bradstreet. [13]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1293","unstructured":"Read, A. W. et al., (Eds.). (1978). Funk & Wagnalls new comprehensive international dictionary of the English language. New York: The Publishers Guild Press. [34]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib602","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-0992(199908\/09)29:5\/6<781::AID-EJSP960>3.0.CO;2-3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib333","unstructured":"Dawes, R. M. (1990). The potential nonfalsity of the false consensus effect. In Insights into decision making (pp. 179\u2013199), R. M. Hogarth (Ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib213","unstructured":"Burros, O. K. (1978). Mental measurement yearbook, 8th ed. Highland Park, NJ: Gryphon Press. [34]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib618","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1468-0017.1992.tb00202.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib551","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1031(66)90084-9"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib559","unstructured":"Gigerenzer, G. (1994). Why the distinction between single-event probabilities and frequencies is important for psychology (and vice versa). In Subjective probability (pp. 129\u2013161), G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.). New York: Wiley. [Introduction, 14, 39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib016","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.68.5.804"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib428","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2044-8295.1984.tb01915.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1259","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/archinte.1997.00440300111009"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1804","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00207598008246995"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib050","unstructured":"Armor, D. A., & Taylor, S. E. (2000). Mindset, prediction, and performance: Self-regulation in deliberative and implemental frames of mind. Unpublished manuscript, Yale University. [19]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1292","unstructured":"Raiffa, H. (1968). Decision analysis: Introductory lectures on choice under uncertainty. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley. [37]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib018","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-3445.120.1.3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib418","unstructured":"Epley, N., & Gilovich, T. (2000b). Close but not quite: insufficient adjustment from self-generated anchors. Unpublished manuscript, Cornell University. [7]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1132","unstructured":"Murphy, A. H., & Katz, R. W. (Eds.). (1983). Probability, Statistics and Decision-Making in the Atmospheric Sciences. Boulder, CO: Westview Press. [37]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib465","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fischhoff, B. (1982a). Debiasing. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 422\u2013444), D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [5,10,13,14, 41, 42]","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511809477.032"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1761","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-6133.10.1.25"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib968","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511809477.023"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib755","unstructured":"Imada, S., Haidt, J., McCauley C. R., & Rozin, P. (2000). Disgust sensitivity in Japan. (Unpublished data). [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib258","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0027592"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib636","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0167-2681(92)90078-P"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib067","unstructured":"Ayton, P., & Onkal, D. (1996). Effects of expertise on forecasts and confidence in forecast. Paper presented at the International Symposium on Forecasting, Istanbul, Turkey. [39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1124","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mowrer, O. H. (1960a). Learning theory and behavior. New York: Wiley. [23]","DOI":"10.1037\/10802-000"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1471","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.90.2.322"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib158","first-page":"181","article-title":"The effect of mood on different well-being judgments","volume":"139","author":"Borg","year":"1987","journal-title":"Archiv fur Psychologie"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1570","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(72)90041-4"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1658","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00714369"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib122","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/1054-139X(95)00111-5"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib617","unstructured":"Goodman-Delahunty J., Granhag, P. A., & Loftus, E. F. (1998). How well can lawyers predict their chances of success? Unpublished manuscript, University of Washington. [39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib049","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2601(08)60386-X"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib021","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511809477.022"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib346","unstructured":"DeMarco, T. (1982). Controlling software projects: Management, measurement, and estimation. New York: Yourdon. [14]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib606","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2025838"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Adler, J. E. (1991). An optimist's pessimism: Conversation and conjunctions. In Probability and rationality: Studies on L. Jonathan Cohen's philosophy of science (pp. 251\u2013282), E. Eells & T. Maruszewski (Eds.). Amsterdam: Editions Rodopi. [24]","DOI":"10.1163\/9789004457201_013"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib290","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cohen, L. J. (1979). On the psychology of prediction: Whose is the fallacy? Cognition, 7, 385\u2013407. [24, 28]","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0277(79)90023-4"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib343","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/209601"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib166","unstructured":"Brake, G. L., Doherty, M. E., & Kleiter, G. D. (1997). A Brunswikian approach to calibration of subjective probabilities. Unpublished manuscript, Bowling Green State University. [39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib012","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.35.5.303"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib032","unstructured":"Anderson, N. H. (1996). A functional theory of cognition. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [2]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib013","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(91)90020-T"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib040","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-3445.129.4.508"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1638","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tetlock, P. E. (1983a). Accountability and complexity of thought. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology: Attitudes and Social Cognition, 45, 74\u201383. [32]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0022-3514.45.1.74"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib145","unstructured":"Bless, H., & Schwarz, N. (1999). Sufficient and necessary conditions in dual process models: The case of mood and information processing. In Dual process theories in social psychology (pp. 423\u2013440), S. Chaiken & Y. Trope (Eds.). New York: Guilford. [29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib220","unstructured":"Cacciari, C., & Tabossi, P. (Eds.) (1993). Idioms. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [8]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1679","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0032955"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib739","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Horton, W. S., & Keysar, B. (1996). When do speakers take into account common ground? Cognition, 59, 91\u2013117. [8]","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0277(96)81418-1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib353","unstructured":"Descartes, R. (1984). Principles of philosophy. In The philosophical writings of Descartes (Vol. 1, pp. 193\u2013291), J. Cottingham, R. Stoothoff, & D. Murdoch, (Eds. and Trans.)"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib947","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1521\/jscp.1993.12.1.90"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib192","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bruner, J. (1986). Actual minds, possible worlds. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [24]","DOI":"10.4159\/9780674029019"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1621","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511809477.014"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib042","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-0-306-47630-3_22"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib019","first-page":"617","article-title":"Estimating popular support for group decision outcomes: An anchoring and adjustment model","volume":"9","author":"Allison","year":"1994","journal-title":"Journal of Social Behavior and Personality"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1409","unstructured":"Schlenker, B. R. (Ed.). (1985). The self and social life. New York: McGraw-Hill. [32]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib035","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1525\/ae.1981.8.3.02a00050"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib571","unstructured":"Gilbert, D. T. (1993). The assent of man: Mental representation and the control of belief. In The handbook of mental control (pp. 57\u201387), D. M. Wegner & J. W. Pennebaker, (Eds.). Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall. [9,10]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib884","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/for.3980120208"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib163","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03329773"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib444","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fazio, R. H., Jackson, J. R., Dunton, B. C., & Williams, C. J. (1995). Variability in automatic activation as an unobtrusive measure of racial attitudes: A bona fide pipeline? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 69, 1013\u20131027. [10]","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.69.6.1013"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib138","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03206939"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib097","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2491414"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1323","unstructured":"Roese, N. J., & Olson, J. M. (1995). What might have been: The social psychology of counter-factual thinking. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [35]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1723","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-50329-0_6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1158","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1525\/eth.1994.22.2.02a00020"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib683","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1364-6613(97)01014-0"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib621","unstructured":"Gould, S. J. (1991). Bully for brontosaurus. Reflections in natural history. New York: Norton. [2, 22]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1563","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/cogp.1998.0700"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib086","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-015-8226-1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib277","unstructured":"Clemen, R. (1991). Making hard decisions. Boston: PWS-Kent. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib457","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ejsp.2420160204"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1568","unstructured":"Staw, B. (1980). Rationality and justification in organizational life. In Research in organizational behavior (Vol. 2, pp. 1\u201357), B. Staw & L. Cummings (Eds.). Greenwich, CT: JAI Press. [32]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1086","unstructured":"Michotte, A. (1963). The perception of causality. New York: Basic Books. [Introduction, 2]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1146","unstructured":"National Research Council (1989). Improving risk communication. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib222","unstructured":"Cadsby, T. (2000). The ten biggest investment mistakes Canadians make and how to avoid them. Toronto: Stoddart. [39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib007","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-6494.1996.tb00948.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib135","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.45.4.792"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib717","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(83)90018-X"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib697","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Heine, S., & Lehman, D. (1995). Cultural variation in unrealistic optimism: Does the West feel more invulnerable than the East? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 68, 595\u2013607. [14]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0022-3514.68.4.595"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib026","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.45.2.293"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib302","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0165-1765(92)90217-M"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib685","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.46.1.44"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib648","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2044-8295.1982.tb01823.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib702","unstructured":"Hempel, C. (1965). Aspects of scientific explanation and other essays in the philosophy of science. New York: Free Press. [42]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1265","unstructured":"Pratkanis, A. (1989). The cognitive representation of attitudes. In Attitude structure and function (pp. 71\u201398), A. R. Pratkanis, S. J. Breckler, & A. G. Greenwald (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [Introduction, 23]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1169","unstructured":"Nisbett, R. E., Borgida, E., Crandall, R., & Reed, H. (1976). Popular induction: Information is not always informative. In Cognition and social behavior (pp. 227\u2013236), J. Carrol & J. Payne (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib109","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/02724988843000122"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1567","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.165.3899.1232"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib078","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.65.6.1119"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib123","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0001-6918(82)90042-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1572","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2601(08)60229-4"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib248","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.50.3.492"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib902","unstructured":"Kreps, D. M. (1990). Game theory and economic modeling. Oxford, U.K.: Clarendon Press. [8]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib795","unstructured":"Jones, E. E., & Gerard, H. B. (1967). Foundations of social psychology. New York: Wiley. [16]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1232","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/01461672002612002"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib385","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.61.6.957"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib273","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03197499"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1179","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(75)90004-3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib536","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Froot, K. A., & Frankel, J. A. (1989). Forward discount bias: Is it an exchange risk premium? Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104, 139\u2013161. [38]","DOI":"10.2307\/2937838"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib442","unstructured":"Faust, D. (1984). The limits of scientific reasoning. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press. [40]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib246","unstructured":"Caverni, J.-P., & Pris, J. L. (1990). The anchoring-adjustment heuristic in an \u201cinformation rich, real world setting\u201d: Knowledge assessment by experts. In Cognitive biases, J.-P. Caverni, J.-M. Fabre, & M. Gonzalez (Eds.). New York: North-Holland. [6]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib692","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1999.2826"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib567","unstructured":"Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P. M., & the ABC Research Group. (1999). Simple heuristics that make us smart, New York: Oxford University Press. [Introduction, 2, 30, 31]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib423","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1031(92)90050-T"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib897","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-7393.6.2.107"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib256","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1999.2841"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib820","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.39.1.17"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib557","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gigerenzer, G. (1991c). How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond heuristics and biases. European Review of Social Psychology, 2, 83\u2013115. [Introduction, 24]","DOI":"10.1080\/14792779143000033"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib565","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.98.4.506"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1013","unstructured":"Mackie, J. L. (1974). The cement of the universe: A study of causation. Oxford, U.K.: Clarendon Press. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1408","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(91)90044-T"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1756","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-6133.12.4.324"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib322","unstructured":"David, F. N. (1949). Probability theory for statistical methods. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [33]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib102","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.117.3.497"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib387","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0037031"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib977","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2232929"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib189","unstructured":"Brown & Williamson Tobacco Company (1999). [23]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib865","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/cogp.1994.1006"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib210","unstructured":"Bunker, J. P., Barnes, B. A., & Mosteller, F. (Eds.). (1977). Costs, risks, and benefits of surgery. New York: Oxford University Press. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib386","unstructured":"Durkheim, E. (1976). The elementary forms of the religious life (2nd ed.). London: Allen and Unwin. (Original work published 1925). [32]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib298","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.47.4.738"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1651","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bdm.3960070102"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib203","unstructured":"Buehler, R., & Griffin, D. (2000a). Dispositional, contextual, and cognitive underpinnings of the planning fallacy. Unpublished manuscript, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario. [14]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib995","unstructured":"Lopes, L. L. (1982b). Toward a procedural theory of judgment. ONR final report, University of Wisconsin. [6]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib206","unstructured":"Buehler, R., Griffin, D., Otsubo, Y., Lehman, D., & Heine, S. (2000). A cross-cultural comparison of the planning fallacy. Unpublished manuscript, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario. [14]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1690","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.7455683"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib682","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1992)120<0863:TAOSDT>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib810","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9280.1991.tb00121.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib223","unstructured":"Calderon, T. G. (1993). Predictive properties of analysts' forecasts of corporate earnings. The Mid-Atlantic Journal of Business, 29, 41\u201358. [19]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib440","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1914320"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib349","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Dennett, D. C. (1981). Brainstorms: Philosophical essays on mind and psychology. Cambridge, MA: Bradford\/MIT Press. [16, 28]","DOI":"10.7551\/mitpress\/1664.001.0001"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib852","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00029890.1986.11971784"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib422","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.70.4.757"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1059","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0062931"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1242","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/209532"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1617","unstructured":"Taylor, B. N. (1982). NBSIR 81\u20132426, National Bureau of Standards. [37]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib971","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-7393.4.6.551"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib227","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.89.1.306"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib748","unstructured":"Hsee, C. K., & Menon, S. (1999). Affection effect in consumer choices. Unpublished study, University of Chicago. [23]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib288","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0001-6918(57)90031-8"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1081","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ps.32.020181.000513"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1642","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tetlock, P. E. (1992a). Good judgment in world politics: Three psychological perspectives. Political Psychology, 13, 517\u2013540. [42]","DOI":"10.2307\/3791611"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib876","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0001-6918(70)90029-6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib237","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511571312"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1666","unstructured":"Tiedens, L. Z., & Linton, S. (in press). Judgment under emotional certainty and uncertainty: The effects of specific emotions on information processing. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. [29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1469","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0301-4215(94)90129-5"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib250","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.39.5.752"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib760","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-3445.116.1.26"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib881","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Klar, Y., & Giladi, E. E. (1999). Are most people happier than their peers, or are they just happy? Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 25, 585\u2013594. [27]","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167299025005004"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib260","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(85)90014-3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib118","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1751-5823.1997.tb00368.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib231","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Capute, A. J., Neidermeyer, E. F. L., & Richardson, F. (1968). Electroencephalogram in children with minimal cerebral dysfunction. Pediatrics, 41, 1104\u20131114. [40]","DOI":"10.1542\/peds.41.6.1104"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib476","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fischhoff, B. (2000a). Informed consent in eliciting environmental values. Environmental Science and Technology, 38, 1439\u20131444 [41]","DOI":"10.1021\/es990726z"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib238","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0160-2896(97)90012-X"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib308","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cowley, G., King, P., Hager, M., & Rosenberg, D. (1995, June 26). Going mainstream. Newsweek, 56\u201357. [34]","DOI":"10.1097\/00006247-199511000-00015"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib317","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3033574"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1038","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.51.3.493"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib174","unstructured":"Brenner, L. A. (1995). A stochastic model of the calibration of subjective probabilities. Unpublished Doctoral dissertation, Stanford University. [27, 39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib775","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1007740225484"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib239","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1031(78)90062-8"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib635","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1885092"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib976","unstructured":"Locke, E. A., & Latham, G. P. (1990). A theory of goal setting and task performance. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall. [14]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib510","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2466\/pms.1997.85.3f.1419"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib441","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2937836"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib437","unstructured":"Evans-Pritchard, E. E. (1937). Witchcraft, oracles and magic among the Azande. Oxford: Clarendon. [34]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib253","unstructured":"Chaiken, S., & Trope, Y. (1999). Dual-process theories in social psychology. New York: Guilford Press. [2, 5, 22, 23]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib722","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0004-3702(90)90004-J"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1609","unstructured":"Tait, R., & Silver, R. C. (1989). Coming to terms with major negative life events. In Unintended thought (pp. 351\u2013382), J. S. Uleman & J. A. Bargh (Eds.). New York: Guilford Press. [35]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib198","unstructured":"Brunswik, E. (1964). Scope and aspects of the cognitive problem. In Contemporary approaches to cognition (pp. 5\u201331), J. S. Bruner et al. (Eds.). Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [31]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1586","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Stigler, S. M. (1977). Annals of Statistics, 5, 1055\u20131098. [37]","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1176343997"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib211","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0377-2217(93)90186-Q"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib409","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2466\/pr0.1975.36.3.923"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib070","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.84.2.191"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib242","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4612-5887-2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib249","unstructured":"Chafe, W. L. (1976). Givenness, contrastiveness, definiteness, subjects, topics, andpoint of view. In Subject and topic, C. N. Li (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [8]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1631","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2044-8260.1994.tb01108.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib368","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/jesp.1997.1331"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib065","unstructured":"Ayton, P. (1998). How bad is human judgment? In Forecasting with judgment, G. Wright & P. Goodwin (Eds.). West Sussex, England: John Wiley & Sons. [2]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1046","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-0-12-565960-4.50027-8"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib004","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ps.40.020189.001341"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1573","unstructured":"Stein, E. (1996). Without good reason: The rationality debate in philosophy and cognitive science. Oxford, U.K.: Oxford University Press. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib209","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/14792779343000112"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib478","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fischhoff, B., & Bar-Hillel, M. (1984). Focusing techniques: A shortcut to improving probability judgments? Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 34, 175\u2013194. [13]","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(84)90002-3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1283","unstructured":"Quine, W. V. (1977). Natural kinds. In Naming, necessity, and natural kinds (pp. 155\u2013175), S. P. Schwartz (Ed.). Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. [22]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib450","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/001872675400700202"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1248","unstructured":"Piaget, J. (1928). Judgment and reasoning in the child. New York: Harcourt, Brace. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib341","unstructured":"de Finetti, B. (1970). Theory of probability (Vol. 1). New York: John Wiley and Sons (republished 1990). [Introduction, 24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib226","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1007850605129"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib792","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.34.2.107"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1678","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0081115"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib283","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1103\/RevModPhys.37.537"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib725","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03198278"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib873","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1995.1106"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1288","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0272-7358(88)90093-1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1399","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2601(08)60230-0"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib228","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.48.5.1097"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1314","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bdm.3960030404"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1454","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.70.4.844"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib252","unstructured":"Chaiken, S., Liberman, A., & Eagly, A. H. (1989). Heuristic and systematic processing within and beyond the persuasion context. In Unintended thought (pp. 212\u2013252), J. S. Uleman & J. A. Bargh (Eds.). New York: Guilford Press. [Introduction, 22]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib650","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/1076-8971.2.2.293"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib247","unstructured":"Centor, R. M., Dalton, H. P., & Yates, J. F. (1984). Are physicians' probability estimates better or worse than regression model estimates? Paper presented at the Sixth Annual Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Bethesda, MD. [39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib301","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0883-9026(95)00083-K"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib254","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-0720(199612)10:6<519::AID-ACP417>3.0.CO;2-5"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib289","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/acprof:oso\/9780198244127.001.0001"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib680","unstructured":"Hart, H. L. A., & Honore, A. M. (1959). Causation in the law. London: Oxford University Press. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib939","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0022022199030004002"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1541","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Snyder, M., & Swann, W. B., Jr. (1978b). Hypothesis-testing processes in social interaction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 36, 1202\u20131212. [Introduction, 7, 9]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0022-3514.36.11.1202"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib391","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511809477.019"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib665","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hammond (1996). Human Judgment and Social Policy: Irreducible Uncertainty, Inevitable Error, Unavoidable Injustice. New York: Oxford. [2,39]","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780195097344.001.0001"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib320","unstructured":"Damasio, A. R. (1994). Descarte's error: Emotion, reason and the human brain. New York: Grosset\/Putnam [23, 29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1139","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1994.1078"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1709","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.77.6.1188"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1220","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1469-8986.1994.tb02440.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib268","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0021-843X.91.2.87"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib276","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2469\/faj.v50.n5.66"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib664","unstructured":"Hamer, C. (1981). \u201cGood-fishin!\u201d (2nd ed.). St. Paul, MN: P. F., Inc. [28]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib243","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781139174794"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib028","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-5371(83)90201-3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib641","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9780470998519.ch10"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib130","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1103\/RevModPhys.1.1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib590","unstructured":"Gilovich, T. (2000, June). Motivated skepticism and motivated credulity: Differential standards of evidence in the evaluation of desired and undesired propositions. Address presented at the 12th Annual Convention of the American Psychological Society, Miami Beach, Florida. [27]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib196","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0060889"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib313","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/he.36919771703"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib844","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00049538308255070"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib447","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4899-0227-6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib314","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00844986"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib106","unstructured":"Bazerman, M. H., & Neale, M. A. (1992). Negotiating rationally. New York: John Wiley & Sons. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib267","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.34.4.663"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib101","unstructured":"Baumeister, R., Bratslavsky E., Finkenauer, C, & Vohs, K. D. (in press). Bad is stronger than good. (Review of General Psychology.) [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib493","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1031(82)90046-4"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib294","unstructured":"Cohen, L. J. (1986). The dialogue of reason. Oxford, U.K.: Oxford University Press. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib492","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/0162-895X.00058"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib794","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2601(08)60107-0"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib309","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167282082005"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib292","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1468-5914.1982.tb00450.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib281","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00004032-197906000-00007"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib204","unstructured":"Buehler, R., & Griffin, D. (2000b). Motivated prediction for self and others. Unpublished manuscript, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario. [14]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib282","unstructured":"Cohen, E. R., Crowe, K. M., & Dumond, J. W. M. (1957). Fundamental constants of Physics. New York: Interscience. [37]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib927","unstructured":"Lakoff, G., & Johnson, M. (1980). Metaphors we live by. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib048","unstructured":"Armor, D. A. (1998). The illusion of objectivity: A bias in the perception of freedom from bias. Doctoral dissertation, University of California, Los Angeles. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1681","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.84.4.327"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1468","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0277(89)90012-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib464","unstructured":"Fischhoff, B. (1980). For those condemned to study the past. In New Directions for Methodology of Social and Behavioral Science (pp. 79\u201393), R. A. Schweder & D. W. Fiske (Eds.). San Francisco: Jossey-Bass. [40]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1359","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0012-1649.21.6.1075"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib245","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM197811022991808"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib379","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1103\/PhysRev.82.555.3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib905","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167298245006"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib295","unstructured":"Coleman, J. S. (1990). Foundations of Social Theory. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press. College Board (1976\u20131977). Student descriptive questionnaire. Princeton, NJ: Educational Testing Service. [18]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib653","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1460-2466.1995.tb00712.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib666","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0046845"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib259","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(73)90004-2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1328","unstructured":"Rosch, E. (1978). Principles of categorization. In Cognition and categorization, E. Rosch & B. B. Lloyd (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [1, 3]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib438","unstructured":"Falk, R. (1981). The perception of randomness. In Proceedings, Fifth International Conference for the Psychology of Mathematics Education. Grenoble, France. [33]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib499","unstructured":"Flavell, J. H. (1985). Cognitive development, 2nd ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1143","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/01461672002611010"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib397","unstructured":"Edwards, W. (1968). Conservatism in human information processing. In Formal representation of human judgment (pp. 17\u201352), B. Kleinmuntz (Ed.). New York: Wiley. [Introduction, 13]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib926","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7208\/chicago\/9780226471013.001.0001"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1721","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0032060"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib507","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.117.1.39"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1136","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Murphy, A. H., & Winkler, R. L. (1984b). Probability of precipitation forecasts: A review. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79, 391\u2013400. [41]","DOI":"10.2307\/2288395"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib266","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/104346398010001002"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1130","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/for.3980030402"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib285","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1063\/1.3253130"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1329","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0012-1649.29.2.300"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib690","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2491479"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib374","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2469\/faj.v51.n3.1903"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib318","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-0771(199606)9:2<125::AID-BDM221>3.0.CO;2-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib262","unstructured":"Cherniak, C. (1986). Minimal rationality. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib329","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.34.7.571"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib823","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1007835629236"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1632","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1540-4560.1983.tb00139.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib275","unstructured":"Clark, H. H., & Marshall, C. R. (1981). Definite reference and mutual knowledge. In Elements of discourse understanding (pp. 10\u201363), A. H. Joshe, B. Webber, & I. A. Sag (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [8]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib485","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/317762"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib315","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1468-0017.1996.tb00039.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1268","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167296225002"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib261","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0277(89)90031-0"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib121","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.91.1.79"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1432","unstructured":"Schwarz, N., & Clore, G. L. (1996). Feelings and phenomenal experiences. In Social psychology: a handbook of basic principles (pp. 433\u2013465), E. T. Higgins & A. Kruglanski (Eds.). New York: Guilford. [5, 29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib116","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.29.10.1156"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib068","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01044377"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib335","unstructured":"Dawes, R. M. (1994). House of cards: Psychology and psychotherapy built on myth. New York: Free Press. [34]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib316","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(86)90018-X"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib427","unstructured":"Evans, J. St. B. T. (1982). The psychology of deductive reasoning. London: Routledge. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1517","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539-6924.1991.tb00658.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1560","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Stanovich, K. E., & West, R. F. (1998a). Cognitive ability and variation in selection task performance. Thinking and Reasoning, 4, 193\u2013230. [24]","DOI":"10.1080\/135467898394139"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib124","unstructured":"Beyth-Marom, R. (1981). The subjective probability of conjunctions (Decision Research Report No. 81\u201312). Eugene, OR: Decision Research. [1]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib041","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.110.3.486"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib332","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1031(89)90036-X"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1064","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2538981"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib352","unstructured":"DePaulo, B. M., Stone, J. L., & Lassiter, G. D. (1985). Deceiving and detecting deceit. In The self in social life (pp. 323\u2013370), B. R. Schlenker (Ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill. [9]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib129","unstructured":"Biller, B., Bless, H., & Schwarz, N. (1992, April). Die Leichtigkeit der Erinnerung als Information in der Urteilsbildung: der EinfluBder Fragenreihenfolge (Ease of recall as information: The impact of question order). Tagung experimentell arbeitender Psychologen, Osnabr\u00fcck, FRG. [5]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1096","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2601(08)60322-6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1715","unstructured":"Verschoth, A. (1992, July 22). Who will win what. Sports Illustrated. [35]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1127","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0450(1973)012<0595:ANVPOT>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1607","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-0663.91.3.497"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1245","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/THFE.1966.231978"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib062","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0012-1649.29.2.286"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib389","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.41.10.1040"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1274","unstructured":"Pruitt, J. Z., Rubin, D. G., & Kim, S. (1994). Social conflict: Escalation, stalemate, and settlement. New York: McGraw-Hill. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib403","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.85.5.395"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib959","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01173486"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1084","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511552069.003"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1066","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.100.2.254"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1510","unstructured":"Slovic, P. (2000). Rational actors and rational fools: The influence of affect on judgment and decision making. Roger Williams University Law Review, 6, 167\u2013216. [23]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib408","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Eisenhardt, C. (1968). Expression of uncertainties of final results. Science, 160, 1201- 1204. [37]","DOI":"10.1126\/science.160.3833.1201"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1151","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.51.2.77"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1122","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Morwitz, V. G., Johnson, E., & Schmittlein, D. (1993). Does measuring intent change behavior? Journal of Consumer Research, 20, 46\u201361. [19]","DOI":"10.1086\/209332"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib456","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.66.4.633"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib390","unstructured":"Eagly, A. H., & Chaiken, S. (1993). The psychology of attitudes. Fort Worth: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich. [14, 22, 29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib854","unstructured":"Kelley, H. H. (1967). Attribution theory in social psychology. In Nebraska Symposium on Motivation (Vol. 15, pp. 192\u2013238), D. Levine (Ed.). Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press. [9, 20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib784","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.45.1.20"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1094","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Miller, D. T., & Ross, M. (1975). Self-serving biases in the attribution of causality: Fact or fiction? Psychological Bulletin, 82, 213\u2013225. [Introduction, 14,19]","DOI":"10.1037\/h0076486"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib662","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0016-3287(80)80006-1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1747","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2601(08)60017-9"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1349","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1031(78)90013-6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1321","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-1523.15.2.259"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1827","unstructured":"Yates, J. F, Lee, J.-W., Levi, K. R., & Curley S. P. (1990). Measuring and analyzing probability judgment accuracy in medicine. Philippine Journal of Internal Medicine, 28 (Suppl. 1), 21\u201332. [15]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib328","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0030868"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1381","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Russo, J. E., & Kolzow, K. (1994). Where is the fault in fault trees? Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 20, 17\u201332. [25]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0096-1523.20.1.17"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1260","unstructured":"Posner, M. I., & Snyder, C. R. R. (1975). Attention and cognitive control. In Information processing and cognition: The Loyola symposium (pp. 55\u201385), R. L. Solso (Ed.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [9, 22]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1996.0011"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib920","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/jesp.1993.1004"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib330","unstructured":"Dawes, R. M. (1980). You can't systemize human judgment: Dyslexia. New Directions for Methodology of Social and Behavioral Science, 4, 67\u201378. [28]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib580","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.57.6.940"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib822","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01073401"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1267","unstructured":"Price, P. C., & Murphy, R. O. (1999). General-knowledge overconfidence: A comparison of Brazilian and American university students. Mente Social, 5, 55\u201374. [15]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib347","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/aoms\/1177698950"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1446","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03197186"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1716","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Vertzberger, Y. (1998). Risk taking and decision making. Stanford: Stanford University Press. [41]","DOI":"10.1515\/9780804765077"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib570","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.46.2.107"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib394","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.71.1.5"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib718","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.118.2.248"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib432","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0010-0277(00)00098-6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib216","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.100.3.432"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1348","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.37.3.322"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib362","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/tc.9.3.313"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib737","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-0992(199607)26:4<599::AID-EJSP773>3.0.CO;2-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib496","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0062827"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib303","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-011-1398-4_7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib847","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/266945"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib433","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2044-8295.1973.tb01365.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib095","first-page":"629","article-title":"Ideals, central tendency, and frequency of instantiation as determinants of graded structure in categories","volume":"11","author":"Barsalou","year":"1985","journal-title":"Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1380","unstructured":"Russell, T., & Thaler, R. H. (1985). The relevance of quasi-rationality in competitive markets. American Economic Review, 75, 1071\u20131082. [38]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1673","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.93.3.239"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib495","unstructured":"Fiske, S. T., & Taylor, S. E. (1991). Social cognition, 2nd Ed. New York: McGraw-Hill. [Introduction]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib197","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0047470"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1207\/s15327965pli0102_1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib241","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0021-843X.89.3.368"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1135","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Murphy, A. H., & Winkler, R. L. (1984a). Probability forecasting in meteorology. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79, 489\u2013500. [39]","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1984.10478075"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1546","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1412107"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib727","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.265674"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib503","unstructured":"Fong, G. T., Krantz, D. H., & Nisbett, R. E. (1983). Improving inductive reasoning through statistical training. Unpublished manuscript, University of Michigan. [28]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1166","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/jeem.1995.1009"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib630","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.102.1.4"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib546","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.2000.2914"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1229","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.50.3.502"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib543","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(84)90024-2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1829","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1998.2771"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1578","unstructured":"Stevens, S. S. (1975). Psychophysics: Introduction to its perceptual, neural, and social prospects. New York: John Wiley & Sons. [2]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib396","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ps.12.020161.002353"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib756","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/10034-000"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib424","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.101.3.519"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib430","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2044-8295.1996.tb02587.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib175","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/cogp.1998.0706"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib323","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/268763"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib244","unstructured":"Casman, E., Fischhoff, B., Palmgren, C., Small, M., & Wu, F. (2000). Integrated assessment of Cryptosporidium risks. Risk Analysis, 20, 493\u2013509. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1262","unstructured":"Poulton, E. C. (1989). Bias in quantifying judgments. London: Erlbaum. [2, 41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib393","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/14423-000"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib083","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.50.5.869"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib376","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bdm.3960010403"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib149","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0002-9149(88)91201-5"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib411","unstructured":"Elster, J. (1977). Ulysses and the sirens. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [16]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib337","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.2648573"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib165","unstructured":"Braine, M. D. S. (1990). The \u201cnatural logic\u201d approach to reasoning. In Reasoning, necessity, and logic: Developmental Perspectives (pp. 133\u2013157), W. F. Overton (Ed.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [22]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib405","unstructured":"Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. M. (1982). A theory of diagnostic inference: Imagination and the psychophysics of evidence. Center for Decision Research, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1426","unstructured":"Schwarz, N. (in press). Where are the unique predictions? Psychological Inquiry. [29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib364","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/j.2164-4918.1963.tb02337.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib236","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0076248"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1500","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/108107396128059"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib414","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2330778"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib574","unstructured":"Gilbert, D. T., Gill, M. J., & Wilson, T. D. (in press). The future is now: Temporal correction in affective forecasting. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. [16]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1377","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511529863.014"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib365","unstructured":"Dominowski, R. L. (1995). Content effects in Wason's selection task. In Perspectives on thinking and reasoning (pp. 41\u201365), S. E. Newstead & J. S. B. T. Evans (Eds.). Hove, England: Erlbaum. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1304","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.86.1.61"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib719","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.93.1.75"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib463","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-1523.1.3.288"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib604","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0026206"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib880","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.73.5.885"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1154","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-6133.14.2.147"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib278","unstructured":"Clore, G. L. (1992). Cognitive phenomenology: Feelings and the construction of judgment. In The construction of social judgments (pp. 133\u2013163), L. L. Martin & A. Tesser (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [5]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib837","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1982d). Variants of uncertainty. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 509\u2013520), D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [Introduction]","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511809477.036"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1645","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4135\/9781483345291.n6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib875","unstructured":"Keysar, B., & Henly A. S. (in press). Speakers' overestimation of their effectiveness. Psychological Science. [8]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1332","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00006842-199105000-00001"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib882","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1996.0076"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib415","unstructured":"Englich, B., & Mussweiler, T. (in press). Legal judgment under uncertainty: Anchoring effects in the court room. Journal of Applied Social Psychology. [6]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib866","unstructured":"Keysar, B. (1998). Language users as problem solvers: just what ambiguity problem do they solve? In Social and cognitive psychological approaches to interpersonal communication (pp. 175\u2013200), S. R. Fussell & R. J. Kreuz (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [8]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib835","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511809477.015"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1061","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03201221"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib849","unstructured":"Keeney R. L. (1992). Value focused thinking: A path to creative decisionmaking. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1360","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-3182(86)80235-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1701","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2171769"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib377","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0001-6918(88)90045-5"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib864","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0140525X00028910"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib828","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(72)90016-3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1637","unstructured":"Tesser, A., & Campbell, J. (1983). Self-definition and self-evaluation maintenance. In Social psychological perspectives on the self (Vol. 2, pp. 1\u201331), J. M. Suls & A. Greenwald (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [9]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib870","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-8721.ep13175613"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib993","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Loomes, G., & Sugden, R. (1987b). Testing for regret and disappointment in choice under uncertainty. Economic Journal, 97, 118\u2013129. [21]","DOI":"10.2307\/3038234"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib827","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kahneman, D., & Snell, J. (1992). Predicting a change in taste: Do people know what they will like? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 5, 187\u2013200. [14, 16, 23]","DOI":"10.1002\/bdm.3960050304"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib821","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.93.2.136"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1660","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jep.2.2.161"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib832","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0277(82)90022-1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib872","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Keysar, B., & Bly, B. (1999). Swimming against the current: Do idioms reflect conceptual structure? Journal of Pragmatics, 31, 1559\u20131578. [8]","DOI":"10.1016\/S0378-2166(99)00004-1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1211","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.124.1.54"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1598","unstructured":"Suls, J. M., & Miller, R. L. (1977). Social comparison processes: Theoretical and empirical perspectives. New York: Wiley. [20, 35]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1625","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.103.2.193"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib831","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979b). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47, 263\u2013291. [11, 16, 27, 32, 36, 41]","DOI":"10.2307\/1914185"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1016","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0167-4870(94)90012-4"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib878","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1521\/soco.1994.12.2.77"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib481","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-1523.4.2.330"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1020","unstructured":"Malsch, M. (1989). Lawyers' predictions of judicial decisions. Doctoral thesis, University of Leiden, The Netherlands. [39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib193","unstructured":"Bruner, J. (1990). Acts of meaning. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib863","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-596X(89)90017-X"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib868","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9280.00211"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib159","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1559-1816.1977.tb00750.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib851","unstructured":"Keil, F. C. (1989). Concepts, kinds and cognitive development. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [22]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib113","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-3445.121.4.446"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib857","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Keltner, D., Locke, K. D., & Audrain, P. C. (1993b). The influence of attributions on the relevance of negative feelings to satisfaction. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 19, 21\u201330. [29]","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167293191003"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1240","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Pfeifer, P. E. (1994). Are we overconfident in the belief that probability forecasters are overconfident? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 58, 203\u2013213. [39]","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1994.1034"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib856","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Keltner, D., Ellsworth, P., & Edwards, K. (1993a). Beyond simple pessimism: Effects of sadness and anger on social perception. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 64, 740\u2013752. [29]","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.64.5.740"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1675","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.79.6.876"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib025","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1031(83)90031-8"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib824","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1007710408413"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib155","unstructured":"Bollnow, O. F. (1956). Das Wesen der Stimmungen. (The nature of moods.) Frankfurt: Klostermann. [29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib869","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/jmla.1998.2563"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib825","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511809477"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib826","unstructured":"Kahneman, D., & Snell, J. (1990). Predicting utility. In Insights in decision making (pp. 295\u2013310), R. Hogarth (Ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [16]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib623","unstructured":"Gould, S. J. (1997). The pleasures of pluralism. New York Review of Books, June 26. [Introduction]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib928","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1540-6261.1994.tb04772.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib850","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781139174084"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib883","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.94.2.211"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1403","unstructured":"Schick, F. (1997). Making choices: A recasting of decision theory. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib079","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03205299"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1104","unstructured":"Mitchell, T. R., & Thompson, L. (1994). A theory of temporal adjustments of the evaluation of events: Rosy prediction and rosy retrospection. Advances in Managerial Cognition and Organizational Information Processes, 5, 85\u2013114. [16]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib836","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1982c). Variants of uncertainty. Cognition, 11, 143\u2013157. [1,14, 25]","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0277(82)90023-3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1687","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1973b). Response-induced reversals of preference in gambling: an extended replication in Las Vegas. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 101, 16\u201320. [12]","DOI":"10.1037\/h0035472"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib726","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0076270"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib914","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167293193011"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1655","unstructured":"Tetlock, P. E., Peterson, R., & Lerner, J. (1996). Revisiting the value pluralism model: Incorporating social content and context postulates. In Ontario symposium on social and personality psychology: Values (Vol. 8, pp. 25\u201351), C. Seligman, J. Olson, & M. Zanna (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Earlbaum. [32]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1159","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511571381.002"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1663","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(92)90010-5"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib724","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.93.4.411"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib923","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/019251219301400302"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib929","unstructured":"Lalljee, M., & Abelson, R. R. (1983). The organization of explanations. In Attribution theory: Social and functional extensions (pp. 65\u201380), M. Hewstone (Ed.). Oxford, U.K.: Blackwell. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib985","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.127.2.267"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib615","unstructured":"Gonzales, M., & Bonini, N. (1995). Probability judgments in two-outcome situations: What induces a defect in complementarity? Unpublished manuscript, Centre de Recherche en Psychologie Cognitive, University de Provence, Aix-en-Provence, France. [26]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib963","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511621710.014"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib182","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bdm.3960050202"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib966","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Liberman, V., & Tversky A. (1993). On the evaluation of probability judgments: Calibration, resolution, and monotonicity Psychological Bulletin, 114, 162\u2013173. [39]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0033-2909.114.1.162"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib992","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Loomes, G., & Sugden, R. (1987a). Some implications of a more general form of regret theory. Journal of Economic Theory, 41, 270\u2013287. [21]","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-0531(87)90020-2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1153","unstructured":"Nemeroff, C. (1988). Contagion and the transfer of essence. Doctoral dissertation, University of Pennsylvania. [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1627","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.69.2.213"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib990","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2554246"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib931","unstructured":"Langer, E. J. (1978). Rethinking the role of thought in social interaction. New directions in attribution research. Vol. 2. (Harvey, Ickes, & Kidd, Eds.), Potomac, MD: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [2]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib933","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2570339"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib375","unstructured":"Dryfoos, J. G. (1990). Adolescents at risk: Prevalence and prevention. New York: Oxford University Press. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib949","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0002716296545001009"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1783","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.116.1.117"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib954","unstructured":"Lerner, M. J. (1980). The belief in a just world: A fundamental delusion. New York: Plenum. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1221","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-7393.14.3.534"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib961","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Levi, I. (1983). Who commits the base rate fallacy? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 6, 502\u2013506. [24]","DOI":"10.1017\/S0140525X00017209"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib969","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0031207"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1186","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"O'Brien, P. C. (1988) Analysts' forecasts as earnings expectations. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 10, 53\u201383. [38]","DOI":"10.1016\/0165-4101(88)90023-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib899","unstructured":"Krantz, D. H., Fong, G. T., & Nisbett, R. E. (1983). Formal training improves the application of statistical heuristics to everyday problems. Unpublished manuscript. Murray Hill, NJ: Bell Laboratories. [28]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1370","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.50.4.703"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib956","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.94.4.412"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib984","unstructured":"Loewenstein, G., & Schkade, D. (1999). Wouldn't it be nice? Predicting future feelings. In Well-being: The foundations of hedonic psychology (pp. 85\u2013105), D. Kahneman, E. Diener, & N. Schwarz (Eds.). New York: Russell Sage Foundation Press. [14,16,23]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1225","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1521\/soco.1989.7.1.31"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib894","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-0771(199712)10:4<293::AID-BDM256>3.0.CO;2-P"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib184","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.52.10.1046"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib859","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0001-6918(88)90007-8"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib909","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.77.2.221"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib115","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/opre.30.5.961"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib334","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9280.1993.tb00588.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1297","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.46.1.14"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib898","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4612-3088-5_1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1037","unstructured":"Martignon, L., & Laskey K. (in press). Laplace's Demon meets Simon: The role of rationality in a world of bounded resources. In Simple heuristics that make us smart, G. Gigerenzer, P. Todd, & the ABC group (Eds.). New York: Oxford University Press. [31]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib912","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.103.2.263"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1691","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1982a). Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 117\u2013128), D. Kahneman, P. Slavic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). New York: Cambridge University Press. [Introduction, 20]","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511809477.009"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib886","unstructured":"Klein, G. (1998). Sources of power: How people make decisions. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [24, 39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1320","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.2000.2915"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib925","unstructured":"Lakoff, G. (1982). Categories and cognitive models (Cognitive Science Report No. 2). Berkeley: University of California. [1]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib498","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/11449-000"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib974","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.57.2.165"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1223","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ps.43.020192.000511"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1622","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.38.11.1161"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1344","unstructured":"Ross, L., & Ward, A. (1996). Naive realism in everyday life: Implications for social conflict and misunderstanding. In Values and knowledge (pp. 103\u2013135), T. Brown, E. Reed, & E. Turiel (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1653","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.78.5.853"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1000","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0277(85)90024-1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1131","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1984)112<0413:IOFAEO>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib918","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.108.3.480"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib958","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2601(08)60091-X"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib972","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/0022-1082.00329"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib996","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lopes, L. L., & Oden, G. C. (1991). The rationality of intelligence. In Probability and rationality: Studies on L. Jonathan Cohen's philosophy of science (pp. 199\u2013223), E. Eells & T. Maruszewski (Eds.). Amsterdam: Editions Rodopi. [24]","DOI":"10.1163\/9789004457201_011"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1326","unstructured":"Roos, M., Hietanen, M., & Luoma, J. (1975). A New Procedure for Averaging Particle Properties. Physics Fennica, 10, 21\u201333. [37]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib733","unstructured":"Hogarth, R. M. (1980). Judgement and choice. New York: Wiley. [28]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib885","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1999.2847"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib921","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0140525X00015661"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib890","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.110.3.499"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1558","unstructured":"Stanovich, K. E. (1999). Who is rational? Studies of individual differences in reasoning. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [2, 24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib951","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/1097-4679(198411)40:6<1435::AID-JCLP2270400629>3.0.CO;2-0"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1412","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/smj.4250140304"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib983","unstructured":"Loewenstein, G., Prelec, D., & Shatto, C. (1998). Hot\/cold empathy gaps and the underprediction of curiosity. Working paper (Carnegie Mellon University). [30]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib999","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.37.11.2098"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib955","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.85.5.1030"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib964","unstructured":"Lewis, D. K. (1973). Counterfactuals. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. [20,42]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib980","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2235159"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib994","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lopes, L. L. (1982a). Doing the impossible: A note on induction and the experience of randomness. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 8, 626\u2013636. [24, 28]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0278-7393.8.6.626"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1832","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0169-2070(95)00636-2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib908","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.65.4.670"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib919","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kunda, Z. (1999). Social cognition: Making sense of people. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [29]","DOI":"10.7551\/mitpress\/6291.001.0001"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1459","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.39.2.211"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1498","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1031(86)90031-4"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib937","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1559-1816.1978.tb00783.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1818","unstructured":"Yamagishi, K. (1994). Consistencies and biases in risk perception. I. Anchoring processes and response-range effects. Perceptual and Motor Skills, 79 (1, Pt. 2), 651\u2013656. [6]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1583","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/288928"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1714","unstructured":"Vaughn, L. A. (1997). Effects of expertise on use of recall experiences and recalled information for social judgments. Unpublished Doctoral dissertation, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI. [5]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib938","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0021-9010.62.2.194"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1365","unstructured":"Rozin, P., Haidt, J., McCauley, C. R., & Imada, S. (1997). The cultural evolution of disgust. In Food preferences and taste: Continuity and change (pp. 65\u201382), H. M. Macbeth (Ed.). Oxford, U.K.: Berghahn. [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib950","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/1097-4679(198107)37:3<623::AID-JCLP2270370330>3.0.CO;2-V"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1141","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mussweiler, T., & Strack, F. (2000a). Comparing is believing: a selective accessibility model of judgmental anchoring. In European Review of Social Psychology, (Vol. 10, pp. 135\u2013167), W. Stroebe & M. Hewstone (Eds.). Chichester, U.K.: Wiley. [6]","DOI":"10.1080\/14792779943000044"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib930","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167287134009"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib944","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167282082012"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib707","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0026786"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib991","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2232669"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib160","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.106.2.265"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1187","unstructured":"Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (1993). Reasoning theories and bounded rationality. In Rationality: Psychological and philosophical perspectives (pp. 31\u201360), K. Manktelow & D. Over (Eds.). London: Routledge. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib474","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0951-8320(97)00120-8"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib904","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.59.6.1140"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib906","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.67.4.596"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib941","unstructured":"Law of averages a reality for ballplayers. (June 7, 1981). Los Angeles Times. Pt. 3, p. 6. [28]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1736","unstructured":"Wason, P. C., & Johnson-Laird, P. N. (1972). The psychology of reasoning. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [9]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1296","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1998.2803"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib922","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167295213002"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib946","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-6133.14.1.74"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1333","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2601(08)60357-3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib998","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lord, C. G., Lepper, M. R., & Mackie, D. (1984a). Attitude prototypes as determinants of attitude-behavior consistency. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 46, 1254\u20131266. [14]","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.46.6.1254"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib888","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781139173537"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib973","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2345078"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib071","unstructured":"Bandura, A. (1997). Self efficacy: The exercise of control. New York: W. H. Freeman and Company. [19]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1693","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1982c). Judgments of and by representativeness. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). New York: Cambridge University Press. [1, 2]","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511809477"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib988","unstructured":"Loftus, E. F, & Wagenaar, W. A. (1988). Lawyers' Predictions of Success. Jurimetrics, 28, 437. [39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib917","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.53.4.636"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1448","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0277(93)90034-S"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib924","unstructured":"Lakoff, G. (1972). Hedges: A study in meaning criteria and the logic of fuzzy concepts. In Papers from the Eighth Regional Meeting, Chicago Linguistic Society (pp. 183\u2013228). Chicago: Chicago Linguistic Society. [22]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib862","unstructured":"Keynes, J. A. (1921). A treatise on probability. London: Macmillan. [Introduction, 26]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1533","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1207\/s15327663jcp0401_02"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib932","unstructured":"Lanir, Z. (1978). Critical reevaluation of the strategic intelligence methodology. Tel Aviv: Center for Strategic Studies, Tel Aviv University. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib948","unstructured":"Lehnert, W. (1978). The process of question answering. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib953","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167298246001"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1383","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2224\/sbp.1993.21.3.215"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib967","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(77)90001-0"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1646","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tetlock, P. E. (1999). Theory-driven reasoning about possible pasts and probable futures: Are we prisoners of our preconceptions? American Journal of Political Science, 43, 335\u2013366. [42]","DOI":"10.2307\/2991798"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib555","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gigerenzer, G. (1991a). How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond \u201cheuristics and biases.\u201d In European Review of Social Psychology (Vol. 2, pp. 83\u2013115), W. Stroebe & M. Hewstone (Eds.). Chichester, U.K.: Wiley. [2,14]","DOI":"10.1080\/14792779143000033"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib900","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1521\/soco.1991.9.1.2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib907","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Krueger, J., Ham, J. J., & Linford, K. M. (1996). Perceptions of behavioral consistency: Are people aware of the actor-observer effect? Psychological Science, 7, 259\u2013263. [36]","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9280.1996.tb00371.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1753","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.39.5.806"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib982","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0022427897034004003"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1806","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3150659"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1434","unstructured":"Schwarz, N., Servay, W., & Kumpf, M. (1985). Attribution of arousal as a mediator of the effectiveness of fear-arousing communications. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 15, 74\u201378. [29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib942","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0092-6566(86)90127-3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib965","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.75.1.5"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib142","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9780470998519.ch18"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib981","unstructured":"Loewenstein, G., & Frederick, S. (1997). Predicting reactions to environmental change. In Environment, ethics, and behavior: The psychology of environmental valuation and degradation (pp. 52\u201372), M. H. Bazerman, D. M., Messick, A. E., Tenbrunsel, & K. A. Wade-Benzoni, (Eds.). San Francisco: The New Lexington Press. [14,16]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib425","unstructured":"Ericsson, A., & Simon, H. (1994). Verbal reports as data (2nd ed.). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1227","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2490396"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1443","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Shafer, G. (1976). A mathematical theory of evidence. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. [1, 20, 25, 26]","DOI":"10.1515\/9780691214696"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib582","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.65.2.221"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib997","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.47.6.1231"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1012","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.57.1.27"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1018","unstructured":"Maines, L. A., & Hand, J. R. M. (1996). Individuals' perceptions and misperceptions of time series properties of quarterly earnings. Accounting Review, 71, 317\u2013336. [38]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib143","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167290162013"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1053","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-3445.114.2.159"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1499","unstructured":"Skyrms, B. (1986). Choice & chance: An introduction to inductive logic (3rd ed.). Belmont, CA: Wadsworth. [22, 24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1043","unstructured":"Martin, L. L., & Stapel, D. A. (1998). Correction and metacognition: are people naive dogmatists or naive empiricist during social judgments? In Metacognition: cognitive and social dimensions (pp. 228\u2013247), V. Yzerbyt, G. Lories, & B. Dardenne (Eds.). New York: Sage. [10]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1003","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-7393.23.2.384"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1008","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.106.1.210"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1002","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0160-2896(97)90016-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Manktelow, K. I., & Evans, J. St. B. T. (1979). Facilitation of reasoning by realism: Effect or non-effect? British Journal of Psychology, 70, 477\u2013488. [24]","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2044-8295.1979.tb01720.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib020","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bdm.3960030304"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1662","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.68.5.839"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1060","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-7393.24.3.771"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib936","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Larrick, R. P., Smith, E. E., & Yates, J. F. (1992, November). Reflecting on the reflection effect: Disrupting the effects of framing through thought. Paper presented at the meetings of the society for Judgment and Decision Making, St. Louis, MO. [24]","DOI":"10.1037\/e683232011-051"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1045","unstructured":"Martin, W. B., Apostolakos, P. C, & Roazen, H. (1960). Clinical versus actuarial prediction in the differential diagnosis of jaundice. A study of the relative accuracy of predictions made by physicians and by a statistically derived formula in differentiating parenchymal and obstructive jaundice. American Journal of Medical Science, 240, 571\u2013578. [40]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1048","unstructured":"May, R. M. (1986). Inferences, subjective probability, and frequency of correct answers: A cognitive approach to the overconfidence phenomenon. In New directions in research on decision making (pp. 175\u2013189), B. Brehmer, H. Jungermann, P. Lourens, & A. Sevoaan (Eds.). Amsterdam: North-Holland. [13,39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1544","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1521\/soco.1997.15.1.55"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1050","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(79)90027-8"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1025","unstructured":"Maoz, I., Ward, A., Katz, M., & Ross, L. (2000). Reactive devaluation of an \u201cIsraeli\u201d vs. \u201cPalestinian\u201d peace proposal. Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1243","unstructured":"Phillips, L. D. (1973). Bayesian statistics for social sciences. London: Nelson. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1327","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2024002"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1807","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(89)90035-6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1040","unstructured":"Martin, L. L., & Clore, G. L. (Eds.) (2001). Theories of mood and cognition: A user's handbook. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum. [29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1090","unstructured":"Miller, D. T. (1981, August). Changes over time in the selection of causes and the definitions of effects. Paper presented at the meeting of the American Psychological Association, Los Angeles. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1041","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167292184004"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1362","unstructured":"Rozin, P., Grant, H., Weinberg, S., & Parker, S. (2000). \u201cHead versus heart\u201d: Effect of monetary frames on expression of sympathetic magical concerns. Unpublished manuscript. [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1029","unstructured":"Margolis, H. (1987). Patterns, thinking, and cognition. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1047","unstructured":"Mauss, M. (1902\/1972). A general theory of magic (R. Brain, Trans.), (Esquisse d'une theorie generale de la magie. L'Annee Sociologique) New York: W. W. Norton. (Original work published 1902.) [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1028","unstructured":"March, J. G., & Olsen, J. P. (1995). Democratic governance. New York: Free Press. [32]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib779","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Jervis, R. (1992). The future of international politics: Will it resemble the past? International Security, 16, 39\u201373. [42]","DOI":"10.2307\/2539088"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1535","unstructured":"Sniezek, J. A., & Switzer, F. S. (1989). The over-underconfidence paradox: High pi's but poor unlucky me. Paper presented at the Judgment and Decision Making Society Annual Meeting in Atlanta, Georgia. [13]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1034","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.35.2.63"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1057","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-7393.23.1.239"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1042","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.59.1.27"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1055","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"McFadden, D. (1999). Rationality for economists? Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 19, 73\u2013105. [Introduction]","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1007863007855"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1004","unstructured":"Lusted, L. B. (1977). A study of the efficacy of diagnostic radiologic procedures: Final report on diagnostic efficacy. Chicago: Efficacy Study Committee of the American College of Radiology. [13]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1375","unstructured":"Rozin, P., Taylor, C. P., Ross, L., Bennett, G., & Hejmadi, A. (2000). Recognition of disgust and other emotional expressions, individual differences in obsessive and compulsive tendencies, and disgust sensitivity. Unpublished manuscript. [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1699","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.95.3.371"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1062","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM198205273062103"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib766","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.58.3.487"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1027","unstructured":"March, J. G., & Olsen, J. P. (1989). Rediscovering institutions. New York: Free Press. [32]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1825","unstructured":"Yates, J. F. (1998). Conceptualizing, explaining, and improving accuracy: Process models of probability judgment. Cognitive Studies, 5 (4), 49\u201364. [15]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1202","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.51.5.1044"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1006","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0001-6918(76)90032-9"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1306","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.32.5.850"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1051","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0032602"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1490","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/209205"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1049","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.63.1.119"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1210","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0022125"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1056","unstructured":"McFadden, D., & Leonard, G. K. (1993). Issues in the contingent valuation of environmental gods: methodologies for data collection and analysis. In Contingent valuation. A critical assessment, Hausman (Ed.). Amsterdam: North-Holland. [2]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1536","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0031874"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1001","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1149\/1.2132690"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib706","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.45.3.356"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1054","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-8721.ep10770693"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1015","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.66.1.37"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1611","unstructured":"Tambiah, S. J. (1990). Magic, science, religion, and the scope of rationality. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1005","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0140525X00009249"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib562","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.103.4.650"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib819","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jep.5.1.193"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Macchi, L., Osherson, D., & Legrenzi, P. (1995, November). Superadditivity with complementary pairs of hypotheses. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making, Los Angeles. [26]","DOI":"10.1037\/e722892011-055"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1032","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-0965(89)90021-0"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1299","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9280.00008"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1109","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0166-4115(08)62243-8"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib703","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0001-6918(89)90050-4"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1278","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.40.1.31"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1134","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Murphy, A. H., & Winkler, R. L. (1977b). Reliability of subjective probability forecasts of precipitation and temperature. Applied Statistics, 26, 41\u201347. [39]","DOI":"10.2307\/2346866"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1183","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ejsp.2420150309"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1184","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ejsp.2420170402"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1070","unstructured":"Meehl, P. E. (1954). Clinical versus statistical prediction. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press. [Introduction, 40]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1309","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03213778"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1112","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511814679"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1030","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/cogp.1993.1011"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1121","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4612-3648-1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1193","unstructured":"Okrent, D., & Pidgeon, N. (Eds.) (1998). Actual versus perceived risk. Special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 59. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1520","unstructured":"Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S. (1983). Preference reversals: A broader perspective. American Economic Review, 73, 596\u2013605. [6,12]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib970","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0035472"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1128","unstructured":"Murphy, A. H. (1981). Subjective quantification of uncertainty in weather forecasts in the United States. Meteorolgische Rudschau, 34, 65\u201377. [39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1592","unstructured":"Sudman, S., Bradburn, N. M., & Schwarz, N. (1996). Thinking about answers: The application of cognitive processes to survey methodology. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, Inc. [6]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib161","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1540-4560.1992.tb01946.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1147","unstructured":"National Research Council (1996). Understanding risk. Washington, DC: The Council. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1155","unstructured":"Nemeroff, C, Brinkman, A., & Woodward, C. (1994). Magical cognitions about AIDS in a college population. AIDS Education and Prevention, 6, 249\u2013265. [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1608","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1207\/s15327752jpa6502_8"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1165","unstructured":"Newton, E. L. (1990). The rocky road from actions to intentions. Stanford, CA: An unpublished doctoral dissertation. [8]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1170","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0034779"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib339","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"De Bondt, W. F M., & Thaler, R. H. (1985). Does the stock market overreact? Journal of Finance, 40, 793\u2013805. [38]","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1540-6261.1985.tb05004.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1491","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/209290"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1182","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3666306"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1156","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1525\/eth.1989.17.1.02a00030"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1449","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03213877"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1649","unstructured":"Tetlock, P. E., & Belkin, A. (1996). Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics: Logical, methodological, and psychological perspectives. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. [42]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1074","unstructured":"Meehl, P. E. (1973). Psychodiagnosis: Selected papers. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press. [40]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1424","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.54.2.93"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1083","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03337322"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1072","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0049190"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1173","unstructured":"Nisbett, R. E., & Ross, L. (1980). Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall. [Introduction, 1, 5, 10, 11, 13, 20, 24, 28, 33, 34, 36, 37]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib625","unstructured":"Green, A. E., & Bourne, A. J. (1972). Reliability technology. New York: Wiley. [37]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib506","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0059240"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1191","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4324\/9780203345955"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1266","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1007993512698"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1177","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Norem, J. K., & Cantor, N. (1986a). Anticipatory and post-hoc cushioning strategies: Optimism and defensive pessimism in \u201crisky\u201d situations. Cognitive Therapy and Research, 10, 347\u2013362. [19]","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01173471"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1035","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4613-2874-2_11"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1118","unstructured":"Morris, M. W., & Su, S. K. (1999). The hostile mediator phenomenon: Egocentric standards of fairness lead disputants to see mediators as favoring the opponent. Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib312","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03331092"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1126","unstructured":"Moynihan, D. P. (1993). Pandemonium. New York: Oxford University Press. [42]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib639","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Griffin, D. W., & Buehler, R. (1999). Frequency, probability, and prediction: Easy solutions to cognitive illusions? Cognitive Psychology, 38, 48\u201378. [Introduction, 14, 19]","DOI":"10.1006\/cogp.1998.0707"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1098","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1521\/soco.1982.1.1.83"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1145","unstructured":"National Academy of Sciences (1983). Priority Mechanisms for Toxic Chemicals, National Academy, (Washington, DC) [37]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib624","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1521\/soco.1999.17.1.1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib861","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-3445.114.2.133"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1257","unstructured":"Pope, J. (1991). How cultural differences affect multi-country research. Minneapolis: Custom Research, Inc. [15]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1784","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2601(08)60311-1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1110","unstructured":"Montgomery, S. B., Joseph, J. G., Becker, M. H., Ostrow, D. G., Kessler, R. C, & Kirscht, J. P. (1989). The health belief model in understanding compliance with preventative recommendations for AIDS: How useful? AIDS Education and Prevention, 1, 303\u2013323. [19]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1125","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mowrer, O. H. (1960b). Learning theory and the symbolic processes. New York: Wiley. [23]","DOI":"10.1037\/10772-000"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1559","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-0663.89.2.342"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1157","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1525\/eth.1992.20.1.02a00040"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1351","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/01461672982410003"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1087","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mikhail, M., Walther, B., & Willis, R. (1997). Do security analysts improve their performance with experience? Journal of Accounting Research, 35, 131\u2013157. [38]","DOI":"10.2307\/2491458"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1718","unstructured":"von Mises, R. (1928). Probability, statistics and truth. 1954 translation, New York: Macmillan. [Introduction]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1719","unstructured":"von Winterfeldt, D., & Edwards, W. (1986). Decision analysis and behavioral research. New York: Cambridge University Press. [13, 31, 41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1138","unstructured":"Murphy, G. L. (1993). Theories and concept formation. In Categories and concepts: Theoretical views and inductive data analysis (pp. 173\u2013200), I. Van Mechelen, J. Hampton, R. Michalski, & P. Theuns (Eds.). London: Academic Press. [22]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib789","unstructured":"Johnson-Laird, P. N., & Byrne, R. M. J. (1991). Deduction. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [22]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib404","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ps.32.020181.000413"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1091","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.59.6.1111"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib154","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4612-4798-2_2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1101","unstructured":"Mischel, W., Cantor, N., & Feldman, S. (1996). Principles of self-regulation: The nature of willpower and self-control. In Social psychology: Handbook of basic principles (pp. 329\u2013360), E. T Higgins & A. W. Kruglanski (Eds.). New York: Guilford. [16]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1102","unstructured":"Mita, T. H., Dermer, M., & Knight, J. (1997). Reversed facial images and the mere exposure hypothesis. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35, 597- 601. [30]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib486","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1520-6793(199810)15:7<663::AID-MAR4>3.0.CO;2-D"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1144","unstructured":"Nathanson, S. (1994). The ideal of rationality. Chicago: Open Court. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1769","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0959354395053009"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1148","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/001979398303600304"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1185","unstructured":"Nye, J. (1988). Nuclear learning and U. S.-Soviet security regimes. International Organizations, 41, 121\u2013166. [42]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1160","unstructured":"Neustadt, R. E., & May, E. R. (1986). Thinking in time: The uses of history for decision-makers. New York: Free Press. [42]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1111","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1999.2835"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1123","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1130647"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1281","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.98.1.3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib054","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0047195"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1137","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0169-2070(92)90028-8"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib402","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(75)90044-6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1189","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/13546789508251501"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1078","unstructured":"Meigs, A. S. (1984). Food, sex, and pollution: A New Guinea religion. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press. [11,34]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1071","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Meehl, P. E. (1957). When shall we use our heads instead of the formula? Journal of Counseling Psychology, 4, 268\u2013273. [40]","DOI":"10.1037\/h0047554"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1419","unstructured":"Schwarz, N. (1990). Feelings as information: Informational and motivational functions of affective states. In Handbook of motivation and cognition: Foundations of social behavior (Vol. 2, pp. 527\u2013561), E. T. Higgins & R. Sorrentino (Eds.). New York: Guilford Press. [21, 29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1117","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Morier, D. M., & Borgida, E. (1984). The conjunction fallacy: A task specific phenomenon? Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 10, 243\u2013252. [3]","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167284102010"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1162","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/1076-898X.6.3.171"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1080","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(92)90016-Z"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1115","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511840609"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1140","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/jesp.1998.1364"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1142","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mussweiler, T., & Strack, F (2000b). The use of category and exemplar knowledge in the solution of anchoring tasks. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 78, 1038\u20131052. [7]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0022-3514.78.6.1038"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1176","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(81)90010-4"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib573","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.69.2.227"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1178","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Norem, J. K., & Cantor, N. (1986b). Defensive pessimism: Harnessing anxiety as motivation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51, 1208\u20131217. [16]","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.51.6.1208"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1530","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0166-4115(08)62251-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1017","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511527326"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1167","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/135467896394546"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1073","unstructured":"Meehl, P. E. (1967). Wanted - A good cookbook. In Problems in human assessment (pp. 529\u2013540), D. N. Jackson & S. Messick (Eds.). New York: McGraw-Hill. [40]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1149","unstructured":"Neale, M. A., & Bazerman, M. H. (1990). Cognition and rationality in negotiation. New York: The Free Press. [13]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1741","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/07448480009599305"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib607","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9450.1978.tb00310.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1058","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1419083"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1106","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0033297"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1199","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1997.2717"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1204","unstructured":"Osgood, C. E., Suci, G. J., & Tannenbaum, P. H. (1957). The measurement of meaning. Urbana: University of Illinois Press. [23]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1079","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9280.00350"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1361","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0012-1649.20.2.309"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1108","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1031(77)90016-6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1068","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.85.3.207"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1082","unstructured":"Merz, J., Fischhoff, B., Mazur, D. J., & Fischbeck, PS. (1993). Decision-analytic approach to developing standards of disclosure for medical informed consent. Journal of Toxics and Liability, 15, 191\u2013215. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1233","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0021720"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1092","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167286124014"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1763","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wellman, H. M. (1990). The child's theory of mind. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [8]","DOI":"10.7551\/mitpress\/1811.001.0001"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1100","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1891592"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1201","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511571299"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib077","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.41.4.671"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1438","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4612-4954-2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1528","unstructured":"Smith, G. (1997). The political impact of name sounds. Unpublished manuscript, Eastern Washington University, Ellensburg. [23]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1256","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Politzer, G., & Noveck, I. A. (1991). Are conjunction rule violations the result of conversational rule violations? Journal of Psycholinguistic Research, 20, 83\u2013103. [24]","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01067877"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib887","unstructured":"Klein, S. B., & Loftus, J. (1993). The mental representation of trait and autobiographical knowledge about the self. In Advances in social cognition (Vol. 5, pp. 1\u201350), T. K. Srull & R. S. Wyer (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [9]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1279","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.38.1.141"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1290","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1207\/s15327043hup0901_2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib772","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2175898"},{"key":"#cr-split#-9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib522.1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Frazer, J. G. (1890\/1959). The golden bough: a study in magic and religion. New York: Macmillan. (Reprint of 1922 abridged edition, edited by T. H. Gaster","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-349-00400-3"},{"key":"#cr-split#-9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib522.2","unstructured":"original work published 1890) [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1302","unstructured":"Redelmeier, D., Katz, J., & Kahneman, D. (2001). Memories of colonoscopy: A randomized trial. Working paper. [2]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1244","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0023653"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1270","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.81.4.639"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1271","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167202286008"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1196","unstructured":"Olson, J. M., Herman, P., & Zanna, M. P. (1986). Relative deprivation and social comparison: The Ontario symposium (Vol. 4). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [35]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1237","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2601(08)60214-2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib742","unstructured":"Howe, E. (1970). Astrology. In Man, myth, & magic: An illustrated encyclopedia of the supernatural (pp. 149\u2013153), R. Cavendish (Ed.). New York: Marshall Cavendish Corporation. [34]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1247","unstructured":"Piaget, J. (1926). The language and thought of the child. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul. [22, 36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1450","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03202434"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1720","unstructured":"Vygotsky, L. S. (1934\/1987). Thinking and speech. In The Collected Works of L. S. Vygotsky. Vol. 1: Problems of General Psychology (pp. 101\u2013120), R. W. Rieber & A. S. Carton (Eds.). New York: Plenum Press. [22]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1261","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0025267"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1657","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/289032"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib809","unstructured":"Kahneman, D. (1986). Valuing environmental goods: An assessment of the contingent valuation method. In Valuing environmental goods: An assessment of the contingent valuation method, R. Cummings, D. Brookshire, & W Schulze (Eds.). Totowa, NJ: Rowman and Allanheld. [2]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1031","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/jesp.1993.1005"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1152","unstructured":"Nelson, T., Leonesio, R., Landwehr, R., & Narens, L. (1986). A comparison of three predictors of an individual's memory performance: The individual's feeling of knowing vs. the normative feeling of knowing vs. base-rate item difficulty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory & Cognition, 21, 279\u2013287. [39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1277","unstructured":"Puccio, C., & Ross, L. (1999). Understanding \u201cMy World\u201d: Failures in perspective-taking in predicting performance on a new task. Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1294","unstructured":"Read, D. (1985). Determinants of relative mutability. Unpublished research, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1310","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/0272-4332.212117"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib064","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1997.2732"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1197","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0377-2217(94)90102-3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1206","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0277(81)90013-5"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib342","unstructured":"Dean, G. (1987). Does astrology need to be true? Part II: The answer is no. Skeptical Inquirer, Spring, 257\u2013273. [34]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1228","unstructured":"Pennington, N., & Hastie, R. (1993). A theory of explanation-based decision making. In Decision Making in Action: Models and Methods (pp. 188\u2013204), G. Klein, J. Orasano, R. Calderwood, & C. E. Zsambok (Eds.). Norwood, NJ: Ablex. [23]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib511","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/cogp.1998.0711"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1231","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1559-1816.1996.tb00079.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib833","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1982a). Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 414\u2013421), D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [13]","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511809477.031"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1241","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167299025002010"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1300","unstructured":"Redding, S. G. (1978). Bridging the culture gap. Asian Business and Investment, 4, 45\u201352. [15]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1305","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-3445.122.2.207"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1213","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(91)90008-H"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1280","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.42.4.593"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1207","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0277(82)90037-3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1226","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/cogp.1994.1004"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1483","unstructured":"Simon, H. (1982). Models of bounded rationality. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [11, 31]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib960","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(87)90013-6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1512","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-1523.3.4.544"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1732","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3151931"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1095","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01048532"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1276","unstructured":"Puccio, C., & Ross, L. (1998). Real versus perceived ideological differences: Can we close the gap? Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib539","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Funtowicz, S., & Ravetz, J. (1990). Uncertainty and quality in science for policy. London: Kluwer. [41]","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-009-0621-1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1319","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.68.3.404"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1507","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03330840"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1238","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/jesp.1993.1007"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1287","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0005-7967(94)90025-6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1315","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00208786"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1212","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/135467800402857"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1249","unstructured":"Piaget, J. (1983). The child's conception of the world. Totowa, NJ: Rowman & Allanheld (a division of Littlefield, Adams, & Co.). (Original work published 1929) [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib815","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kahneman, D. (2000b). Experienced utility and objective happiness: a moment-based approach. Ch. 37 in Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (Eds.) Choices, Values, and Frames. New York: Cambridge University Press and the Russell Sage Foundation. [2]","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511803475.038"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib788","unstructured":"Johnson-Laird, P. N. (1983). Mental models. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [22, 41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1255","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1559-1816.1989.tb01221.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1386","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3053225"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib194","unstructured":"Bruner, J. S. (1957). Going beyond the information given. In Contemporary approaches to cognition (pp. 41\u201369), H. Gruber, K. R. Hammond, & R. Jesser (Eds.). Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1264","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1559-1816.1988.tb02353.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1303","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X9501500305"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1307","unstructured":"Rescher, N. (1988). Rationality: A philosophical inquiry into the nature and rationale of reason. Oxford, U.K.: Oxford University Press. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1200","unstructured":"Ortmann, A., & Hertwig, R. (2000). Biases and heuristics in psychology and economics. Article proposal for The Journal of Economic Literature. Posted on-line at http:\/\/195.113.12.52\/ortmann\/JELprospectus.html [Introduction]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib705","unstructured":"Henrion, M. (1982). The value of knowing how little you know: The advantages of a probabilistic approach to uncertainty in policy analysis. Doctoral dissertation, Carnegie Mellon University. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib002","unstructured":"Abell, G. O. (1981). Astrology. In Science and the paranormal: Probing the existence of the supernatural (pp. 70\u201394), G. O. Abell & B. Singer (Eds.). New York: Charles Scribner & Sons. [34]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib578","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.117.1.21"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib962","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1031(88)90050-9"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1252","unstructured":"Pinker, S. (1997). How the mind works. New York: Norton. [Introduction, 11, 24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1308","unstructured":"Resnik, M. D. (1987). Choices: An introduction to decision theory. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1205","unstructured":"Osherson, D. N. (1995). Probability judgment. In Thinking (Vol. 3, pp. 35\u201375), E. E. Smith & D. N. Osherson (Eds.). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1285","unstructured":"Rachlinski, J. (1994). Prospect theory and the economics of litigation. Unpublished Doctoral dissertation, Stanford University. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1289","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0005-7967(88)90032-0"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1700","unstructured":"Tversky, A., Slovic, P., & Kahneman, D. (1990). The causes of preference reversal. American Economic Review, 80, 204\u2013217. [12, 23]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1291","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1999.2838"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1209","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0093849"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib678","unstructured":"Harman, G. (1995). Rationality. In Thinking (Vol. 3, pp. 175\u2013211), E. E. Smith & D. N. Osherson (Eds.). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1235","unstructured":"Peterson, D. K., & Pitz, G. F. (1988). Confidence, uncertainty, and the useofinformation. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, 14, 85\u201392. [25]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib162","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.36.2.129"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1313","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1996.0062"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1415","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.49.4.894"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1317","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-1523.11.4.443"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1203","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.62.2.219"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1215","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0022602"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-0771(199606)9:2<95::AID-BDM217>3.0.CO;2-W"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1218","unstructured":"Parrott, W. G. (1993). Beyond hedonism: Motives for inhibiting good moods and for maintaining bad moods. In Handbook of mental control (pp. 278\u2013305), D. M. Wegner & J. W. Pennebaker (Eds.). Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall. [16]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1269","unstructured":"Pronin, E., & Berger, J. (1999). Perceptions of intergroup knowledge: The \u201chippie house\u201d versus the \u201cjock frat.\u201d Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1246","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-010-1276-8_34"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1263","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511574894"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1275","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.35.1.49"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1312","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Rips, L. J. (1994). The psychology of proof: Deductive reasoning in human thinking. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [22, 24]","DOI":"10.7551\/mitpress\/5680.001.0001"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1214","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511611926.009"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib853","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/jmla.1996.0009"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1518","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0026468"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1216","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.59.2.173"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1217","unstructured":"Parker, A., & Fischhoff, B. (2001). An individual References approach decision-making competence. Under editorial review. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1219","unstructured":"Particle Data Group: Roos M., Porter F. C., Aguilar-Benitez, M., Montanet, L., Walck, C., Crawford, R. L., Kelly, R. L., Rittenberg, A., Trippe, T. G., Wohl, C. G., Yost, G. P., Shimada, T., Losty, M. J., Gopal, G. P., Hendrick, R. E., Scrock, R. E., Frosch, R., Roper, L. D., Armstrong, B., et al. (1982). Review of Particle Properties. Physics Letters, 111B, 1\u201321. [37]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1230","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2044-835X.1987.tb01048.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib843","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/003355397555235"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1164","unstructured":"Newton, E. (1990). Overconfidence in the communication of intent: Heard and unheard melodies. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Stanford University. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1253","unstructured":"Pipes, R. (1993). Russia under the Bolshevik regime. New York: A. A. Knopf. [42]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1273","unstructured":"Proust, M. (1949). Remembrance of things past: the captive (C. K. S. Moncrieff, Trans.). London: Chatto and Windus. (Original work published 1923.) [9]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1805","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/002202217893002"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1318","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9280.1996.tb00661.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1195","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01638538709544667"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1635","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9450.1983.tb00481.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1116","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1021\/es00010a753"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1198","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167297239004"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1208","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.97.2.185"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1234","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0022023"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1282","unstructured":"Quattrone, G. A., Lawrence, C. P., Finkel, S. E., & Andrus, D. C. (1981). Explorations in anchoring: The effects of prior range, anchor extremity, and suggestive hints. Manuscript, Stanford University. [6]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib229","unstructured":"Campbell, J. I. D. (1987). The role of associative interference in learning and retrieving arithmetic facts. In Cognitive processes in mathematics, J. A. Sloboda & D. Rogers (Eds.). Oxford: Oxford University Press. [22]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1168","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.125.6.737"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1286","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1600229"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1188","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.101.4.608"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1346","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9780470998519.ch24"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib407","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.99.1.3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1352","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/cogp.1998.0709"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1604","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Swann, W. B., Jr., & Predmore, S. C. (1985). Intimates as agents of social support: Sources of consolation or despair? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 49, 1607\u20131617. [9]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0022-3514.49.6.1609"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1354","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.104.2.406"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1336","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.35.7.485"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1341","unstructured":"Ross, L., & Nisbett, R. E. (1991). The person and the situation. New York: McGraw-Hill. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1011","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1207\/S15327760JPFM0102_2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1342","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1571-9979.1991.tb00634.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1430","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.45.3.513"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1335","unstructured":"Ross, L. (1995). Reactive devaluation in negotiation and conflict resolution. In Barriers to the negotiated resolution of conflict (pp. 30\u201348), K. Arrow, R. Mnookin, L. Ross, A. Tversky, & R. Wilson (Eds.). New York: Norton. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1482","unstructured":"Simon, H. (1978). Rational decision making in organizations. The American Economic Review, 69 (4), 493\u2013513. [30]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1039","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.73.2.242"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1367","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0021-843X.103.3.495"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1817","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/209402"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1339","unstructured":"Ross, L., & Lepper, M. R. (1980). The perseverance of beliefs: Empirical and normative considerations. In New directions for methodology of social and behavioral science: Fallible judgment in behavioral research (pp. 17\u201336), R. A. Shweder & D. Fiske (Eds.). San Francisco: Jossey Bass. [20, 36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib834","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1982b). The psychology of preferences. Scientific American, 246(1), 160\u2013173. [21, 35]","DOI":"10.1038\/scientificamerican0182-160"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1717","unstructured":"Viscusi, W. K. (1992). Smoking: Making the risky decision. New York: Oxford University Press. [23]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1334","unstructured":"Ross, L. (1990). Recognizing the role of construal processes. In The legacy of Solomon Asch: essays in cognition and social psychology, I. Rock (Ed.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [8]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1075","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1207\/s15327752jpa5003_6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1340","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.35.11.817"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1724","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-6133.5.5.481"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1554","unstructured":"Srull, T. K. (1984). The effects of subjective affective states on memory and judgment. In Advances in consumer research (Vol. 11, pp. 530\u2013533), T. Kinnear (Ed.). Provo: Association for Consumer Research. [29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib179","unstructured":"Brewer, M. B. (1988). A dual process model of impression formation. In Advances in social cognition (Vol. 1, pp. 1\u201336), T. K. Srull & R. S. Wyer (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1356","unstructured":"Rozin, P. (1990). Social and moral aspects of eating. In The legacy of Solomon Asch: Essays in cognition and social psychology (pp. 97\u2013110), I. Rock (Ed.). Potomac, MD: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1113","unstructured":"Morgan, M. G., Henrion, M., & Morris, S. C. (1981). BNL No. 51358, Brookhaven National Laboratory. [37]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1353","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9280.00334"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1371","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/jrpe.1995.1019"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib183","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1031(81)90007-X"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1378","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1207\/s15516709cog0901_5"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1379","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Rush, H. (1955, August). The speed of light. Scientific American, 62\u201367. [37]","DOI":"10.1038\/scientificamerican0855-62"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1382","unstructured":"Russo, J. E., & Shoemaker, P. J. H. (1989). Decision traps. New York: Simon and Schuster. [6]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib504","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(86)90001-0"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib521","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1119\/1.13551"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1373","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781139173728.006"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1325","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(87)90012-4"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1623","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.110.1.67"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1322","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.66.5.805"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1414","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-3445.129.1.27"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1372","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03334630"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib426","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2044-8279.1984.tb02583.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1331","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ns.25.120175.003011"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1324","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.34.1.54"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1097","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/10039-000"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1337","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511809477.010"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1767","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-006X.51.6.815"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1368","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1559-1816.1992.tb00943.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1376","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Rubinstein, A. (1979). False probabilistic arguments vs. faulty intuition. Israel Law Review, 14, 247\u2013254. [1]","DOI":"10.1017\/S002122370001640X"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1400","unstructured":"Schelling, T. (1960). The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [30]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib218","unstructured":"Byrne, J. A. (1986). Business fads: What's in - and out: Executives latch on to any management idea that looks like a quick fix. Business Week, January 20, 52\u201361. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1406","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(89)90025-3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib075","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0166-4115(08)62193-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1460","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167285111011"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1477","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0012-1649.26.3.455"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1404","unstructured":"Schick, T., & Vaughn, L. (1999). How to think about weird things: Critical thinking for a new age. Mountain View, CA: Mayfield. [Introduction, 34]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1458","unstructured":"Sherman, R. S. (1982). Decreasing premature termination from psychotherapy via an imagination\/explanation procedure. Unpublished Doctoral dissertation, Indiana University. [4]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1461","unstructured":"Sherman, S. J., & Corty, E. (1984). Cognitive heuristics. In Handbook of social cognition (Vol. 1, pp. 189\u2013286), R. S. Wyer & T. K. Srull (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [5]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1553","unstructured":"Srull, T. K. (1983). Affect and memory: The impact of affective reactions in advertising on the representation of product information in memory. In Advances in consumer research (Vol. 10), R. Bagozzi & A. Tybout (Eds.). Ann Arbor: Association for Consumer Research. [29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib146","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/14792779443000102"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1476","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1130497"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1689","unstructured":"Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1980). Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty. In Progress in social psychology, M. Fishbein (Ed.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [1]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1473","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/201974"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1410","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1995.1012"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1411","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.84.1.1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1480","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/026999398379439"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib046","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0021-9010.66.2.252"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1484","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Simon, H. A. (1956a). Dynamic programming under uncertainty with a quadratic criterion function. Econometrica, 24, 19\u201333. [31]","DOI":"10.2307\/1905261"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1063","unstructured":"Mead, G. H. (1934). Mind, self, and society. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [32, 36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1392","unstructured":"Saunders S. (1993). Stock prices and Wall Street weather. American Economic Review, 83, 1337\u201345 [29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1413","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.77.4.409"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib845","unstructured":"Kammen, D., & Hassendzahl, D. (1999). Shall we risk it? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1422","unstructured":"Schwarz, N. (1996). Cognition and communication: judgmental biases, research methods, and the logic of conversation. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [2, 24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1508","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.3563507"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1462","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1031(81)90011-1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1466","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3386\/w2446"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1487","unstructured":"Simon, H. A. (1979). Models of thought, Vol. 1. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. [39]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib675","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4135\/9781452232652.n11"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1656","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.57.4.632"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1388","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00055564"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1581","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1997.2682"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib987","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(75)90023-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1703","unstructured":"Tylor, E. B. (1871\/1974). Primitive culture: Researches into the development of mythology, philosophy, religion, art and custom. New York: Gordon Press. (Original work published 1871.) [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1486","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2550441"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1395","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0023624"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1350","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1559-1816.1996.tb01778.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1397","unstructured":"Schank, R. C. (1982). Dynamic memory: Learning in computers and people. New York: Cambridge University Press. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1402","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S026626710000273X"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1420","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2601(08)60153-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1428","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2601(08)60329-9"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib608","unstructured":"Goldstein, D. G., & Gigerenzer, G. (1996). Satisficing inference and the perks of ignorance. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 137\u2013141), G. W. Cottrell (Ed.). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum. [31]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1435","unstructured":"Schwarz, N., & Skurnik, I. (in press). Feeling and thinking: Implications for problem solving. In The nature of problem solving, J. Davidson & R. Sternberg (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1585","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2469\/faj.v51.n5.1933"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1464","unstructured":"Shiffrin, R. M., Dumais, S. T., & Schneider, W. (1981). Characteristics of automatism. In Attention and performance IX (pp. 223\u2013238), J. B. Long & A. Baddeley (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [22]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1391","unstructured":"Sargent, T. J. (1993). Bounded rationality in macroeconomics. Oxford, U.K.: Clarendon Press. [31]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1493","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0021-9010.77.4.419"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1522","unstructured":"Slovic, P., MacGregor, D. G., Malmfors, T., & Purchase, I. F. H. (1999). Influence of affective processes on toxicologists' judgments of risk (Report No. 99\u20132). Eugene, OR: Decision Research. [23]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1431","unstructured":"Schwarz, N., & Clore, G. L. (1988). How do I feel about it? Informative functions of affective states. In Affect, cognition, and social behavior (pp. 44\u201362), K. Fiedler & J. Forgas (Eds.). Toronto: Hogrefe International. [23, 29, 30]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1496","unstructured":"Singer, E., & Endreny, P. M. (1994). Reporting on risk. New York: Russell Sage Foundation. [41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1439","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1207\/s15516709cog1504_1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1107","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-011-0774-7_6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib858","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(87)90047-1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1467","unstructured":"Shiller, R. J. (2000). Irrational exuberance. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. [38]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib205","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167297233003"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib671","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.35.5.294"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1481","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0277-9536(84)90157-6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1393","unstructured":"Savage, L. J. (1954). The foundations of statistics. New York: Wiley. [31, 41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1441","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/209497"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1133","unstructured":"Murphy, A. H., & Winker, R. L. (1977a). Can weather forecasters formulate reliable probability forecasts of precipitation and temperature? National Weather Digest, 2, 2\u20139. [13, 41]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1067","unstructured":"Medin, D. L., & Ross, B. H. (1997). Cognitive psychology (2nd ed.). Fort Worth: Harcourt Brace. [5]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1606","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(91)90049-Y"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1465","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.84.2.127"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1790","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.78.5.821"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1474","unstructured":"Shweder, R. A. (1987). Comments on Plott and on Kahneman, Knetsch, & Thaler. In Rational choice: The contrast between economics and psychology (pp. 161\u2013170), R. M. Hogarth & M. W. Reder (Eds.). Chicago: Chicago University Press. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1495","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1521\/soco.1994.12.4.309"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1628","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.63.3.460"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1744","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.66.6.1034"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1440","unstructured":"Seligman, M. E. P. (1975). Helplessness: On depression, development, and death. San Francisco: Freeman. [16]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1442","unstructured":"Sensenig, P. E., & Cialdini, R. B. (1984). Social psychological influences on the compliance process: implications for behavioral health. In Behavioral health: A handbook of health enhancement and disease prevention, J. D. Matarazzo, N. E. Miller, S. M. Weiss, J. A. Herd, & S. M. Weiss (Eds.). New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. [4]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1374","unstructured":"Rozin, P., & Royzman, E. (in press). Negativity bias, negativity dominance, and contagion. Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin. [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1456","unstructured":"Sherif, M., & Hovland, D. (1961). Social judgment: Assimilation and contrast effects in communication and attitude change. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. [6]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1236","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4612-4964-1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1488","unstructured":"Simon, H. A. (1983). Reason in human affairs. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. [Introduction]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1557","unstructured":"Stanovich, K. E. (1986). How to think straight about psychology. Glenview, IL: Scott, Foresman, & Co. [Introduction]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1427","unstructured":"Schwarz, N., & Bless H. (1992). Constructing reality and its alternatives: an inclusion\/exclusion model of assimilation and contrast effects in social judgment. In The construction of social judgments (pp. 217\u2013245), L. L. Martin & A. Tesser (Eds.). Hillsdale NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [6]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1445","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1207\/s15516709cog0903_2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib171","unstructured":"Brehm, S. S., & Brehm, J. W. (1981). Psychological reactance: Atheory of freedom and control. New York: Academic Press. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib910","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.77.6.1121"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1455","unstructured":"Sherif, C., Sherif, M., & Nebergall, R. (1965). Attitude and attitude change: The social judgment-involvement approach. Philadelphia: Saunders. [6]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1727","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X8100100205"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1485","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Simon, H. A. (1956b). Rational choice and the structure ofthe environment. Psychological Review, 63, 129\u2013138. [Introduction, 23]","DOI":"10.1037\/h0042769"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib361","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1207\/s15327752jpa4901_13"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1494","unstructured":"Sinclair, R. C., & Mark, M. M. (1992). The influence of mood state on judgment and action: Effects on persuasion, categorization, social justice, person perception, and judgmental accuracy. In The construction of social judgment (pp. 165\u2013193), L. L. Martin & A. Tesser (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib846","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2491389"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1497","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0272-7358(88)90060-8"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1401","unstructured":"Schelling, T. (1984). Self-command in practice, in policy, and in theory of rational choice. American Economic Review, 74, 1\u201311. [16]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib279","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-0-12-362950-0.50013-6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1444","unstructured":"Shafer, G., & Tversky, A. (1983). Weighting evidence: The design and comparisons of probability thought experiments. Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University. [1]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1385","unstructured":"Sackett, D. L., & Snow, J. S. (1979). The magnitude of compliance and noncompliance. In Compliance in health care (pp. 11\u201322), R. B. Haynes, D. W. Taylor, & D. L. Sackett (Eds.). Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. [4]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1398","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-6133.4.3.219"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1489","unstructured":"Simon, H. A. (1992). Economics, bounded rationality, and the cognitive revolution. Aldershot Hants, England: Elgar. [31]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib296","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1521\/soco.1990.8.3.263"},{"key":"#cr-split#-9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1548.1","unstructured":"Spinoza, B. (1982). The Ethics and selected letters. (S. Feldman, Ed."},{"key":"#cr-split#-9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1548.2","unstructured":"S. Shirley, Trans.). Indianapolis: Hackett Publishing Co. (Original work published 1672) [9]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1036","unstructured":"Martignon, L., Hoffrage, U., & Kriegeskorte, N. (1997). Lexicographic comparison under uncertainty: A satisficing cognitive algorithm. Submitted for publication. [31]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1506","unstructured":"Sloman, S. A., Slovak, L., & Over, D. (2000). Frequency illusions and other fallacies. Manuscript under review, Brown University. [Introduction]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1556","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.38.6.841"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1525","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Slovic, P., & Tversky A. (1974). Who accepts Savage's axiom? Behavioral Science, 19, 368\u2013373. [24]","DOI":"10.1002\/bs.3830190603"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1519","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(71)90033-X"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1564","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0140525X00003435"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib716","unstructured":"Higgins, E. T., & King, G. (1981). Accessibility of social constructs: Information-processing consequences of individual and contextual variability. In Personality, cognition and social interaction (pp. 69\u2013121), N. Cantor & J. F. Kihlstrom (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1531","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-0771(199612)9:4<283::AID-BDM241>3.0.CO;2-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1726","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4899-3472-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1172","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.108.2.291"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1534","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(90)90032-5"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1538","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.104.1.23"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1119","unstructured":"Morris, M., Heath, C., & Jost, J. (1999). Agency misattributions and the curse of knowledge. Working paper, Stanford University. [36]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1676","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0047061"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1539","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-006X.45.1.104"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib638","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Grice, H. P. (1975). Logic and conversation. In Syntax and semantics. Vol. 3. Speech acts, (pp. 41\u201358), P. Cole and J. L. Morgan (Eds.). New York: Academic Press. [1, 6,8, 20, 32]","DOI":"10.1163\/9789004368811_003"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1511","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4135\/9781452232652.n6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1532","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jep.8.1.113"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1021","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/14640749008401246"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1503","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.119.1.3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1711","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03213878"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1524","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1005595519944"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1561","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Stanovich, K. E., & West, R. F. (1998b). Individual differences in framing and conjunction effects. Thinking and Reasoning, 4, 289\u2013317. [24]","DOI":"10.1080\/135467898394094"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1514","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ps.28.020177.000245"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1526","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-0992(199807\/08)28:4<575::AID-EJSP882>3.0.CO;2-9"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1501","unstructured":"Sloan, R. G. (1996). Do stock prices fully reflect information in accruals and cash flows about future earnings? Accounting Review, 71, 289\u2013315. [38]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib640","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.59.6.1128"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1516","unstructured":"Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., & Lichtenstein, S. (1982). Response mode, framing, and information-processing effects in risk assessment. In New directions for methodology of social and behavioral science: Question framing and response consistency (pp. 21\u201336), R. Hogarth (Ed.). San Francisco: Jossey-Bass. [12]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib860","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0001-6918(91)90036-Y"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1523","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(74)90013-0"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1785","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4135\/9781446279212.n10"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1616","unstructured":"Tauber, T. M. (1998). How to do business - Chinese and Western negotiation cultures. Transition, 9 (6), 8\u201310. [15]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib421","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.62.2.328"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1540","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Snyder, M., & Swann, W. B., Jr. (1978a). Behavioral confirmation in social interaction: from social perception to social reality. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 14, 148\u2013162. [6]","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1031(78)90021-5"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1547","unstructured":"Spearman, C. (1927). The abilities of man. London: Macmillan. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1550","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00005053-198112000-00007"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1502","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/cogp.1993.1006"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1619","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/201108a0"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1505","unstructured":"Sloman, S., & Over, D. E. (in press). Probability judgment: From the inside and out. To appear in D. E. Over (Ed.), Evolution and the psychology of thinking: The debate. Hove, U.K.: Psychology Press. [Introduction]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1527","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4159\/harvard.9780674866270"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1542","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1540-6261.1978.tb02051.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1552","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.22.3.340"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib287","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.112.1.155"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1599","unstructured":"Suppe, F. (1973). The structure of scientific theories. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [42]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1600","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Suppes, P. (1974). The measurement of belief. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, B, 36, 160\u2013191. [25]","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2517-6161.1974.tb00997.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib219","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0012-1649.22.6.793"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1605","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.99.2.181"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1088","unstructured":"Mill, J. S. (1974). A system of logic ratiocinative and inductive. Toronto, Ontario: University of Toronto Press. (Originally published 1843.) [28]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1588","unstructured":"Strack, F. (1992). The different routes to social judgment: Experiential versus informational strategies. In The construction of social judgments (pp. 249\u2013276), L. L. Martin & A. Tesser (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [5]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1033","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-6494.1951.tb01107.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1591","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1996.0074"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1596","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.70.5.1091"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1577","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0046162"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1565","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Stapel, D. A., Martin, L. L., & Schwarz, N. (1998). The smell of bias: What instigates correction processes in social judgments? Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 24, 797\u2013806. [10]","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167298248002"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1594","unstructured":"Suedfeld, P., & Tetlock, P. E. (2001). Cognitive styles. In Blackwell international handbook of social psychology: Intra-individual processes, (Vol. 1, pp. 284\u2013304), A. Tesser & N. Schwartz. London: Blackwell Publishers. [42]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib436","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0010-0277(00)00098-6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib412","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781139171694"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib934","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9280.1990.tb00243.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1612","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.7777863"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib439","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0277(92)90012-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib096","unstructured":"Barsalou, L. W. (1987). The instability of graded structure: Implications for the nature of concepts. In Concepts reconsidered: The ecological and intellectual bases of categories, U. Neisser (Ed.). New York: Cambridge University Press. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1389","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9280.00018"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1595","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00134355"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1587","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0034782"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib591","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.64.4.552"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib321","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0166-4328(90)90144-4"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1624","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Taylor, S. E., & Armor, D. A. (1996). Positive illusions and coping with adversity, Journal of Personality, 64, 873\u2013898. [16]","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-6494.1996.tb00947.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1626","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2601(08)60009-X"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1579","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2844000"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1571","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-7393.8.4.320"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1593","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/0162-895X.00082"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1615","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X9101100308"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib306","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0277(94)90020-5"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1575","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.64.2.211"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1614","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0058700"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1641","unstructured":"Tetlock, P. E. (1991). Learning in U.S. and Soviet foreign policy: In search of an elusive concept. In Learning in U.S. and Soviet foreign policy, (pp. 20\u201362). G. Breslauer & P. Tetlock (Eds.). Boulder, CO: Westview. [42]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib156","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0022002183014002002"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1603","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Svenson, O. (1981). Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow driver? Acta Psychologica, 47, 143\u2013148. [18, 27]","DOI":"10.1016\/0001-6918(81)90005-6"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1613","unstructured":"Tanford, J. A. (1990). The law and psychology of jury instructions. Nebraska Law Review, 69, 71\u2013111. [10]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib620","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-5371(66)80067-1"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1569","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0021-9010.65.3.249"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1425","unstructured":"Schwarz, N. (2001). Feelings as information: Implications for affective influences on information processing. In Theories of mood and cognition: A user's handbook (pp. 159\u2013176), L. L. Martin & G. L. Clore (Eds.). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [29]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1630","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.53.4.429"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1797","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.106.2.231"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1674","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.43.1.22"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1044","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.64.3.317"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1667","unstructured":"Tolin, D. F., Brigidi, B. D., & Foa, E. B. (1999). Disgust sensitivity in obsessive compulsive disorder. Paper presented at meeting of Association for Advancement of Behavior Therapy. [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1685","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0031322"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1683","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.102.2.269"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1686","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1973a). Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology, 5, 207\u2013232. [Introduction, 1, 2, 4, 5, 20, 21, 28, 37]","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(73)90033-9"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1670","unstructured":"Totterdell, P., Parkinson, B., Briner, R. B., & Reynolds, S. (1997). Forecasting feelings: The accuracy and effects of self-predictions of mood. Journal of Social Behaviour and Personality, 12, 631\u2013650. [16]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1754","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-6133.2.1.11"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1671","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(71)90014-4"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1682","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.102.2.269"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1729","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.39.2.176"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1688","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.185.4157.1124"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1648","unstructured":"Tetlock, P. E. (in press). Social-functionalist metaphors for judgment and choice: The intuitive politician, theologian, and prosecuter. Psychological Review. [32]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1636","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0005-7967(94)90032-9"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib715","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-1031(77)80007-3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib274","unstructured":"Clark, H. H., & Haviland, S. E. (1977). Comprehension and the given new contract. In Discourse production and comprehension (pp. 1\u201340), R. O. Freedle (Ed.). Norwood, NJ: Ablex. [20]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1654","unstructured":"Tetlock, P. E., & Lebow, R. N. (in press). Poking counterfactual holes in covering laws: Cognitive styles and historical reasoning. American Political Science Review. [42]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1629","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.96.4.569"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1665","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.63.3.435"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1358","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.94.1.23"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1633","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Teigen, K. H. (1974a). Overestimation of subjective probabilities. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 15, 56\u201362. [25]","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9450.1974.tb00556.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1650","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.57.3.388"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1661","unstructured":"Thomas, K. (1983). Man and the natural world. New York: Pantheon Books. [11]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1515","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4899-0445-4_9"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1664","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/214483"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1680","unstructured":"Tversky, A. (1975). A critique of expected utility theory: Descriptive and normative considerations. Erkenntnis, 9, 163\u2013173. [24]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib445","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0025184"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1643","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tetlock, P. E. (1992b). The impact of accountability on judgment and choice: Toward a social contingency model. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 25, pp. 331\u2013376), M. P. Zanna (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [19, 32]","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2601(08)60287-7"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1669","unstructured":"Tooby, J., & Cosmides, L. (in press). Ecological rationality and the multimodular mind. Grounding normative theories in adaptive problems. In Evolutionary psychology: Foundational papers, J. Tooby & L. Cosmides (Eds.). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [31]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1672","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/obhd.1996.0086"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1684","unstructured":"Tversky, A., & Griffin, D. (1991). Endowment and contrast in judgments of well-being. In Strategy and choice (pp. 297\u2013318), R. J. Zeckhauser (Ed.). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [35]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1418","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-72885-3"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1652","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.52.4.700"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib646","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1418469"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1694","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.90.4.293"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1707","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.49.3.577"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1749","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.49.2.338"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1695","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/296365"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1555","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.37.10.1660"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1750","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wegner, D. M., Wenzlaff, R., Kerker, R. M., & Beattie, A. E. (1981). Incrimination through innuendo: Can media questions become public answers? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 40, 822\u2013832. [9]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0022-3514.40.5.822"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib842","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.59.6.1101"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1734","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/17470216008416717"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib449","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(80)90045-8"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1705","unstructured":"Vaillant, G. (1993). The wisdom of the ego. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [16]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib945","unstructured":"Lee, J. W., Yates, J. F., Shinotsuka, H., Singh, R., Onglatco, M. L. U., Yen, N. S., Gupta, M., & Bhatnagar, D. (1995). Cross-national differences in overconfidence. Asian Journal of Psychology, 1, 63\u201369. [14, 15]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1710","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2044-8309.1987.tb00790.x"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1696","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00122574"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1451","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Shanteau, J. (1978). When does a response error become a judgmental bias? Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 4, 579\u2013581. [41]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0278-7393.4.6.579"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1423","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1207\/s15327957pspr0202_2"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1751","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.97.1.74"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1730","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.101.3.490"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1748","unstructured":"Wegner, D. M., & Bargh, J. (1998). Automaticity and mental control. In The handbook of social psychology (4th ed. pp. 446\u2013496), D. T. Gilbert, S. T. Fiske, & G. Lindzey (Eds.). New York: McGraw-Hill. [9]"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1793","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.39.12.1526"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1697","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.101.4.547"},{"key":"9780511808098.CBO9780511808098A055_CBO9780511808098bib1746","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wegener, D. T., & Petty, R. E. (1995b). Flexible correction processes in social judgment: The role of na\u00efve theories in corrections for perceived bias. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 68, 36\u201351. [22, 32]","DOI":"10.1037\/\/0022-3514.68.1.36"}],"container-title":["Heuristics and Biases"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/services\/aop-cambridge-core\/content\/view\/AAB5D933A3F944CFB5CB02265D376C8F","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,1]],"date-time":"2025-04-01T16:37:06Z","timestamp":1743525426000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/product\/identifier\/CBO9780511808098A012\/type\/book_part"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2002,7,8]]},"ISBN":["9780521792608","9780511808098","9780521796798"],"references-count":1856,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/cbo9780511808098.004","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2002,7,8]]}}}