{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,28]],"date-time":"2026-01-28T04:22:58Z","timestamp":1769574178010,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":41,"publisher":"Cambridge University Press (CUP)","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2009,9,9]],"date-time":"2009-09-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1252454400000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/terms"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J. Agric. Sci."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2009,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>SUMMARY<\/jats:title><jats:p>The aim of the present study was to develop a hierarchical bioclimatic model for forecasting olive crop yields in the Alentejo region of south-eastern Portugal. The model was estimated for three different developmental stages: (1) at flowering, using only the regional pollen index (RPI); (2) at fruit growth using RPI and a plant water requirements index (PWRI) and (3) at fruit maturing using RPI plus a water requirements index plus a phytopathological index (PPI). Olive airborne pollen was sampled from 1999 to 2007, using a Cour trap installed in Reguengos de Monsaraz. The meteorological parameters used in the calculation of the post-flowering indices corresponded to data from a meteorological station located near the airborne sampling point. At the flowering stage, 0\u00b766 of the regional olive yield can be explained by the RPI with an average deviation between observed and predicted production of 0\u00b715 for the forecast model internal validation and of 0\u00b719 for the cross-validation. The addition of the variable PWRI to the forecasting model explained an additional 0\u00b726 of the variation, while the PPI explained an additional 0\u00b705. The final bioclimatic model, with all the three variables tested, explained 0\u00b797 of the regional olive fruit yield being the average deviation between observed and predicted production of 0\u00b704 for the internal validation of the model and of 0\u00b707 for the external validation. The hierarchical nature of this bioclimatic model, along three different development stages, enabled the prediction to be updated as the growing season progressed.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0021859609990256","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2009,9,9]],"date-time":"2009-09-09T09:07:10Z","timestamp":1252487230000},"page":"647-656","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["A bioclimatic model for forecasting olive yield"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"147","author":[{"given":"H.","family":"RIBEIRO","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"M.","family":"CUNHA","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"I.","family":"ABREU","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"56","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2009,9,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"S0021859609990256_ref036","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4067\/S0365-28072006000100006"},{"key":"S0021859609990256_ref038","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0021859607007617"},{"key":"S0021859609990256_ref035","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10453-007-9050-6"},{"key":"S0021859609990256_ref015","volume-title":"Guide to Agricultural Meteorological Practices","author":"Gommes","year":"1981"},{"key":"S0021859609990256_ref032","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0308-8146(01)00317-X"},{"key":"S0021859609990256_ref010","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2134\/agronj2005.0067"},{"key":"S0021859609990256_ref033","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01140671.1996.9513950"},{"key":"S0021859609990256_ref018","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0021859607006922"},{"key":"S0021859609990256_ref023","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scienta.2006.12.017"},{"key":"S0021859609990256_ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"189","DOI":"10.5344\/ajev.2003.54.3.189","article-title":"Airborne pollen samples for early-season estimates of wine production in a Mediterranean climate of Northern Portugal","volume":"54","author":"Cunha","year":"2003","journal-title":"American Journal of Enology and Viticulture"},{"key":"S0021859609990256_ref024","first-page":"23","volume-title":"Climate Change in Portugal. 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