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In the present study, statistical phenological models were developed for budburst (BUD), flowering (FLO) and veraison (VER) of 16 grapevine varieties (autochthonous and international) from the Portuguese wine-making regions of Douro, Lisbon and Vinhos Verdes. For model calibration, monthly averages of daily minimum (Tmin), maximum (Tmax) and mean (Tmean) temperatures were selected as potential regressors by a stepwise methodology. Significant predictors included Tmin in January\u2013February\u2013March for BUD, Tmax in March\u2013April for FLO, and Tmin, Tmax and Tmean in March\u2013July for VER. Developed models showed a high degree of accuracy after validation, representing 0\u00b771 of total variance for BUD, 0\u00b783 for FLO and 0\u00b778 for VER. Model errors were in most cases &lt; 5 days, outperforming classic growing degree-day models, including models based on optimized temperature thresholds for each variety. Applied to the future scenarios RCP4\u00b75\/8\u00b75, projections indicate earlier phenophase onset and shorter interphases for all varieties. These changes may bring significant challenges to the Portuguese wine-making sector, highlighting the need for suitable adaptation\/mitigation strategies, to ensure its future sustainability.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1017\/s0021859615000933","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,10,6]],"date-time":"2015-10-06T03:00:09Z","timestamp":1444100409000},"page":"795-811","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/policypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":93,"title":["Statistical modelling of grapevine phenology in Portuguese wine regions: observed trends and climate change projections"],"prefix":"10.1017","volume":"154","author":[{"given":"H.","family":"FRAGA","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"J. 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