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However, national inventories may apply domestic factors to imported fuels, overlooking differences in fuel properties across extraction origins and creating discrepancies in emission estimates. Here, we trace fossil fuels to their countries of extraction and assign emission factors specific to the extraction country and fuel type. Using 2020 data for 150 countries and regions, we compare this origin-traced estimate with a nonorigin-traced control using the same energy-consumption data but combustion-country emission factors. Globally, the control estimate is 339.2 Mt of CO2 lower than the origin-traced estimate, equivalent to 1.0% of the origin-traced total, with coal accounting for 89.9% of the discrepancy. Although crude oil had the largest energy-based trade volume among primary fuels, oil-related fuels contributed less because their emission factors varied less across countries, particularly for refined petroleum products. Such discrepancies can be particularly consequential for highly import-dependent countries. For example, the national-level discrepancy exceeds 4% in India, which is a major fossil-fuel importer. Our origin-tracing approach can improve the accuracy of combustion CO2 estimates by assigning emission factors that better reflect the fuels actually consumed. This provides more robust emission information for assessing progress toward Nationally Determined Contributions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1021\/acs.est.6c01630","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,1]],"date-time":"2026-09-01T19:30:15Z","timestamp":1788291015000},"page":"25385-25396","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Global Combustion\nCO2 Accounting Neglects\nthe Origin of Traded Fossil Fuels"],"prefix":"10.1021","volume":"60","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6499-7557","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Binyuan","family":"Liu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Groningen , , ,","place":["Groningen, The Netherlands, 9747 AG"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5215-8657","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Yuli","family":"Shan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Birmingham , , ,","place":["Birmingham, U.K., B15 2TT"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yuru","family":"Guan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Birmingham , , ,","place":["Birmingham, U.K., B15 2TT"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Steven J.","family":"Davis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Stanford University , , , ,","place":["Stanford, California, United States, 94305"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ye","family":"Hang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Birmingham , , ,","place":["Birmingham, U.K., B15 2TT"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Liang","family":"Jing","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Saudi Aramco , , ,","place":["Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, 31311"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiande","family":"Ji","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Groningen , , ,","place":["Groningen, The Netherlands, 9747 AG"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wenqiang","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Shandong University , , ,","place":["Weihai, China, 264209"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2561-6090","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Klaus","family":"Hubacek","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Groningen , , ,","place":["Groningen, The Netherlands, 9747 AG"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"316","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026091511111084300_cit1","unstructured":"IPCC.\n          . 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Revision Policy For Energy Statistics. 2015, https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/documents\/38154\/4956233\/Energy-statistics-Data-revision-policy.pdf (accessed Aug 04, 2026)."},{"key":"2026091511111084300_cit6","unstructured":"EIA.\n          . Short-Term Energy Outlook \u2013 Data Series Revisions. 2024, https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/outlooks\/steo\/report\/changes.php (accessed Aug 04, 2026)."},{"key":"2026091511111084300_cit7","unstructured":"Garg, A.; Kainou, K.; Pulles, T.\n          2006 IPCC Guidelines\nfor National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Volume 2: Energy, 2006; Chapter 1, p 6. https:\/\/www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp\/public\/2006gl\/vol2.html (accessed Feb 24, 2025)."},{"key":"2026091511111084300_cit8","unstructured":"IEA.\n          . 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Coal 2020. https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/coal-2020 (accessed Feb 06, 2025)."},{"key":"2026091511111084300_cit39","unstructured":"Hack, K.\n          \n          U.S. crude oil\nexports reached a record high in first half of 2023. https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=60622 (accessed\nFeb 08, 2025)."},{"key":"2026091511111084300_cit40","unstructured":"Arnal, M.\n          \n          Canada\u2019s\ncrude oil has an increasingly significant role in U.S. refineries. https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=62664 (accessed\nFeb 08, 2025)."},{"key":"2026091511111084300_cit41","unstructured":"Vaillancourt, K.\n          \n          Coal Mining\nand Logistics; Technology Brief P07\/08; IEA-ETSAP, 2014. https:\/\/iea-etsap.org\/E-TechDS\/PDF\/P07-08_Coal%20M&L_KV_April2014_GSOK.pdf (accessed Feb 06, 2025)."},{"key":"2026091511111084300_cit42","unstructured":"European Union and its Member States.\n          . 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Platts Clarifies NEAT Coal Index\nCalculation. 2019, https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/energy\/en\/pricing-benchmarks\/our-methodology\/subscriber-notes\/101019-platts-clarifies-neat-coal-index-calculation (accessed July 22, 2026)."}],"container-title":["Environmental Science &amp;\nTechnology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/pubs.acs.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1021\/acs.est.6c01630","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"unspecified"},{"URL":"https:\/\/pubs.acs.org\/esthag\/article-pdf\/60\/36\/25385\/67508764\/acs.est.6c01630.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/pubs.acs.org\/esthag\/article-pdf\/60\/36\/25385\/67508764\/acs.est.6c01630.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,15]],"date-time":"2026-09-15T15:51:57Z","timestamp":1789487517000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/pubs.acs.org\/esthag\/article\/60\/36\/25385\/5338997\/Global-Combustion-CO2-Accounting-Neglects-the"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]]},"references-count":48,"journal-issue":{"issue":"36","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,15]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1021\/acs.est.6c01630","relation":{},"ISSN":["0013-936X","1520-5851"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0013-936X","type":"print"},{"value":"1520-5851","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]]}}}