{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,23]],"date-time":"2026-09-23T04:12:21Z","timestamp":1790136741652,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":96,"publisher":"American Chemical Society (ACS)","issue":"22","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,12,2]],"date-time":"2019-12-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1575244800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":39,"URL":"https:\/\/pubs.acs.org\/page\/policy\/authorchoice_termsofuse.html"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100014013","name":"UK Research and Innovation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["EP\/R513465\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["EP\/R513465\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100014013","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/na","name":"Wallace Global Fund","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NA"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/na","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,11,19]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Africa has ambitious plans to address energy deficits and sustain economic growth with fossil fueled power plants. The continent is also experiencing faster population growth than anywhere else in the world that will lead to proliferation of vehicles. Here, we estimate air pollutant emissions in Africa from future (2030) electricity generation and transport. We find that annual emissions of two precursors of fine particles (PM2.5) hazardous to health, sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), approximately double by 2030 relative to 2012, increasing from 2.5 to 5.5 Tg SO2 and 1.5 to 2.8 Tg NOx. We embed these emissions in the GEOS-Chem model nested over the African continent to simulate ambient concentrations of PM2.5 and determine the burden of disease (excess deaths) attributable to exposure to future fossil fuel use. We calculate 48000 avoidable deaths in 2030 (95% confidence interval: 6000\u201388000), mostly in South Africa (10400), Nigeria (7500), and Malawi (2400), with 3-times higher mortality rates from power plants than transport. Sensitivity of the burden of disease to either population growth or air quality varies regionally and suggests that emission mitigation strategies would be most effective in Southern Africa, whereas population growth is the main driver everywhere else.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1021\/acs.est.9b04958","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,10,24]],"date-time":"2019-10-24T17:12:35Z","timestamp":1571937155000},"page":"13524-13534","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":69,"title":["Air\nQuality and Health Impact of Future Fossil Fuel\nUse for Electricity Generation and Transport in Africa"],"prefix":"10.1021","volume":"53","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5477-8051","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Eloise A.","family":"Marais","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Leicester , , , ,","place":["Leicester, United Kingdom, LE1 7RH"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rachel F.","family":"Silvern","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Harvard University , , , ,","place":["Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States, 02138"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alina","family":"Vodonos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Harvard University , , , ,","place":["Boston, Massachusetts, United States, 02115"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Eleonore","family":"Dupin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"INSA , , , ,","place":["Cedex, France, 76800"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alfred S.","family":"Bockarie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Birmingham , , , ,","place":["Birmingham, United Kingdom, B15 2SA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Loretta J.","family":"Mickley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Harvard University , , , ,","place":["Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States, 02138"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Joel","family":"Schwartz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Harvard University , , , ,","place":["Boston, Massachusetts, United States, 02115"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"316","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,10,24]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"2026090113464750500_cit1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"014007","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/5\/1\/014007","article-title":"Implications\nof incorporating air-quality\nco-benefits into climate change policymaking","volume":"5","author":"Nemet","year":"2010","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"issue":"15","key":"2026090113464750500_cit2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"7192","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1819989116","article-title":"Effects of fossil fuel and total\nanthropogenic emission\nremoval on public health and climate","volume":"116","author":"Lelieveld","year":"2019","journal-title":"Proc.\nNatl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A."},{"key":"2026090113464750500_cit3","unstructured":"United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.\n          ,  World Population\nProspects: The 2017 Revision, New York, NY, 2017; p. 1, https:\/\/population.un.org\/wpp\/Publications\/Files\/WPP2017_KeyFindings.pdf (accessed on 18 November 2018)."},{"key":"2026090113464750500_cit4","unstructured":"BP, BP\nStatistical Review of World Energy, 67th Edition, 2018; pp 26, 36, https:\/\/www.bp.com\/content\/dam\/bp\/business-sites\/en\/global\/corporate\/pdfs\/energy-economics\/statistical-review\/bp-stats-review-2018-full-report.pdf (accessed on 27 February 2019)."},{"issue":"3","key":"2026090113464750500_cit5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"595","DOI":"10.3390\/en20300595","article-title":"A Fifteen Year Record\nof Global Natural Gas Flaring Derived from Satellite Data","volume":"2","author":"Elvidge","year":"2009","journal-title":"Energies"},{"key":"2026090113464750500_cit6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"32","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atmosenv.2014.09.055","article-title":"Anthropogenic emissions\nin Nigeria and implications for atmospheric ozone pollution: A view\nfrom space","volume":"99","author":"Marais","year":"2014","journal-title":"Atmos. 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Chang."},{"issue":"1","key":"2026090113464750500_cit19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"014003","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/8\/1\/014003","article-title":"The last decade\nof global anthropogenic\nsulfur dioxide: 2000\u20132011 emissions","volume":"8","author":"Klimont","year":"2013","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"2026090113464750500_cit20","unstructured":"Lilley, R.\n          , Power\nships:\na real solution to South Africa\u2019s short-term energy needs.  EE Publishers, 2015, https:\/\/www.ee.co.za\/article\/power-ships-real-solution-south-africas-short-term-energy-needs.html (accessed on 22 November 2018)."},{"key":"2026090113464750500_cit21","unstructured":"Bungane, B.\n          , Power ship: potential\nshort-term energy solution for Namibia.  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Geophys. Res."},{"issue":"1","key":"2026090113464750500_cit48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"195","DOI":"10.1002\/2013JD020824","article-title":"Global budget and radiative forcing of black carbon\naerosol: Constraints from pole-to-pole (HIPPO) observations across\nthe Pacific","volume":"119","author":"Wang","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res."},{"issue":"7","key":"2026090113464750500_cit49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3137","DOI":"10.5194\/acp-11-3137-2011","article-title":"Global distribution of sea salt aerosols: new constraints\nfrom in situ and remote sensing observations","volume":"11","author":"Jaegle","year":"2011","journal-title":"Atmos. Chem. 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