{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,20]],"date-time":"2026-06-20T16:23:18Z","timestamp":1781972598066,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":13,"publisher":"American Geophysical Union (AGU)","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2008,4,19]],"date-time":"2008-04-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1208563200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":18,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Geophysical Research Letters"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2008,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>There is a widely recognized need in the scientific and policy communities for probabilistic estimates of climate change impacts, beyond simple scenario analysis. Here we propose a methodology to evaluate one major climate change impact \u2010 changes in global average yields of wheat, maize, and barley by 2030 \u2010 by a probabilistic approach that integrates uncertainties in climate change and crop yield responses to temperature, precipitation, and carbon dioxide. The resulting probability distributions, which are conditional on assuming the SRES A1B emission scenario and no agricultural adaptation, indicate expected changes of +1.6%, \u221214.1%, \u22121.8% for wheat, maize, and barley, with 95% probability intervals of (\u22124.1, +6.7), (\u221228.0, \u22124.3), (\u221211.0, 6.2) in percent of current yields, respectively. This fully probabilistic analysis aims at quantifying the range of plausible outcomes and allows us to gauge the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1029\/2008gl033423","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2008,4,18]],"date-time":"2008-04-18T20:00:09Z","timestamp":1208548809000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":119,"title":["Towards probabilistic projections of climate change impacts on global crop yields"],"prefix":"10.1029","volume":"35","author":[{"given":"C.","family":"Tebaldi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Climate Central  Princeton New Jersey USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"D. B.","family":"Lobell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Program on Food Security and the Environment Woods Institute for the Environment and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University  Stanford California USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"13","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2008,4,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9780470316870"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","first-page":"273","volume-title":"Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change","author":"Easterling W. E.","year":"2007"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0450(2003)042<1626:CEOCYI>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change S. Solomon 2007 Cambridge Univ. Press Cambridge U. K","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511546013"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1748\u20109326\/2\/1\/014002"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1114722"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI3895.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.1181"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_10_1","unstructured":"Schlenker W.(2006) Nonlinear effects of weather on crop yields: Implications for climate change working paper Dep. of Econ. and Sch. of Int. and Public Affairs Columbia Univ. New York."},{"key":"e_1_2_7_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsta.2007.2076"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_12_1","article-title":"Joint projections of temperature and precipitation change by synthesizing multi\u2010model ensembles in a Bayesian hierarchical framework","author":"Tebaldi C.","year":"2008","journal-title":"J. Royal Stat. Soc., Ser. A"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2004GL021276"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI3363.1"}],"container-title":["Geophysical Research Letters"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1029%2F2008GL033423","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1029\/2008GL033423","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,31]],"date-time":"2023-10-31T18:01:12Z","timestamp":1698775272000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1029\/2008GL033423"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2008,4]]},"references-count":13,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2008,4]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1029\/2008GL033423"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2008gl033423","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0094-8276","1944-8007"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0094-8276","type":"print"},{"value":"1944-8007","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2008,4]]},"article-number":"2008GL033423"}}