{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,27]],"date-time":"2026-10-27T07:49:46Z","timestamp":1793087386637,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":75,"publisher":"American Geophysical Union (AGU)","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,13]],"date-time":"2023-11-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1699833600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":12,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004561","name":"Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["\u0410\u042009261078"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["\u0410\u042009261078"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004561","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["GeoHealth"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>One of the most extensive natural plague centers, or foci, is located in Central Asia, in particular, the Zhambyl region in Southern Kazakhstan. Here, we conducted plague surveillance from 2000 to 2020 in the Zhambyl region in Kazakhstan and confirmed 3,072 cases of infected wild animals. We used Species Distribution Modeling by employing MaxEnt, and identified that the natural plague foci are primarily located in the Moiynqum, Betpaqdala, and Tauqum Deserts. The Zhambyl region's central part, including the Moiynqum and Sarysu districts, has a high potential risk of plague outbreak for the rural towns and villages. Since the phenomenon of climate change has been identified as a determinant that affects the rodent populations, thereby elevating the likelihood of an outbreak of plague, we investigated the potential dissemination routes of the disease under the changing climate conditions, thus creating Species Distribution Forecasts for the rodent species in southern part of Kazakhstan for the year 2100. By 2100, in case of increasing temperatures, the range of host species is likely to expand, leading to a higher risk of plague outbreaks. The highest risk of disease transmission can be expected at the outer limits of the modeled total distribution range, where infection rates are high, but antibody presence is low, making many species susceptible to the pathogen. To mitigate the risk of a potential plague outbreak, it is necessary to implement appropriate sanitary\u2010epidemiological measures and climate mitigation policies.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1029\/2023gh000853","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,13]],"date-time":"2023-11-13T07:05:08Z","timestamp":1699859108000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":14,"title":["Mapping Plague Risk Using Super Species Distribution Models and Forecasts for Rodents in the Zhambyl Region, Kazakhstan"],"prefix":"10.1029","volume":"7","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8346-4147","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"N. M.","family":"Rametov","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"National Scientific Center for Particularly Dangerous Infections named after M. Aikimbaev  Almaty Kazakhstan"},{"name":"Institute of Ionosphere  Almaty Kazakhstan"},{"name":"Department of Geospatial Engineering Satpaev Kazakh National Research Technical University  Almaty Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"M.","family":"Steiner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Animal Science Wageningen University and Research  Wageningen The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1804-2511","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"N. A.","family":"Bizhanova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory of Theriology Institute of Zoology  Almaty Kazakhstan"},{"name":"Department of Biodiversity and Bioresources Al\u2010Farabi Kazakh National University  Almaty Kazakhstan"},{"name":"Wildlife Without Borders Public Fund  Almaty Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2738-6818","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Z. Zh.","family":"Abdel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Scientific Center for Particularly Dangerous Infections named after M. Aikimbaev  Almaty Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2202-9333","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"D. T.","family":"Yessimseit","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Scientific Center for Particularly Dangerous Infections named after M. Aikimbaev  Almaty Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4184-6227","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"B. Z.","family":"Abdeliyev","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Scientific Center for Particularly Dangerous Infections named after M. Aikimbaev  Almaty Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6838-2338","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"R. S.","family":"Mussagalieva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Scientific Center for Particularly Dangerous Infections named after M. Aikimbaev  Almaty Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"13","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.21055\/0370-1069-2021-2-71-78"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.21055\/0370-1069-2022-2-64-69"},{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_2_9_1_4_1","first-page":"3","article-title":"Pasport regionov Kazahstana po osobo opasnym infektsiyam [Passport of the regions of Kazakhstan for especially dangerous infections]","volume":"31","author":"Atshabar B. B.","year":"2015","journal-title":"Quarantine and zoonotic infections in Kazakhstan"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_5_1","volume-title":"Atlas of the spread of especially dangerous infections in the Republic of Kazakhstan","author":"Atshabar B. B.","year":"2012"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_6_1","first-page":"51","volume-title":"Mammals of Kazakhstan: Vol. II","author":"Baitanaev O. 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Guidelines] (Collaborative work of 121 authors)."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1139\/z88-348"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/002219503322645439"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/10408410902989837"},{"issue":"10","key":"e_1_2_9_1_36_1","first-page":"38","article-title":"Osobennosti nekotorykh zoonoznykh infektsiy na urbanizirovannykh territoriyakh Respubliki Kazakhstan [Features of some zoonotic infections in the urbanized territories of the Republic of Kazakhstan]","volume":"172","author":"Meka\u2010Mechenko T. V.","year":"2016","journal-title":"Medicine"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_37_1","article-title":"O vydelenii pasterell i listeriy na ochagovoy po chume territorii, kontroliruyemoy Kyzylordinskoy PChS [On the isolation of Pasteurella and Listeria in the area controlled by the Kyzylorda APS (Anti\u2010plague station)]","volume":"2","author":"Meka\u2010Mechenko T. 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Meka\u2010Mechenko T. V. et\u00a0al. (2001).Rukovodstvo po izucheniyu shtammov chumnogo mikroba [Guidelines for the study of plague microbe strains."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_44_1","article-title":"RCP 8.5: Business\u2010as\u2010usual or a worst\u2010case scenario?","volume":"2","author":"Nexus C.","year":"2023","journal-title":"Climate Nexus"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s13104-017-2667-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/anil020242"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_47_1","first-page":"44","volume-title":"Sochetannyye prirodnyye ochagi bakterial'nykh, rikketsioznykh i virusnykh infektsionnykh bolezney v regione Severo\u2010Zapadnogo Prikaspiya [combined natural foci of bacterial, rickettsial and viral infectious diseases in the north\u2010west Precaspian region]","author":"Popov N. V.","year":"2010"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_48_1","volume-title":"Gryzuny I prirodnye ochagi chumy [Rodents and natural foci of plague","author":"Ralle Y. M.","year":"1960"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Rametov N. Steiner M. Bizhanova N. Abdel Z. Yessimseit D. Beck A. &Mussagalieva R.(2023).Mapping plague risk using super species distribution models and forecasts for rodents in the Zhambyl region Kazakhstan[Dataset].Geohealth.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.8357219","DOI":"10.5281\/zenodo.8357219"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_50_1","first-page":"22","article-title":"Evolution of the doctrine of the natural focality of human diseases","author":"Rudakov N. M.","year":"2015","journal-title":"Sh. Mitsaev. Actual Problems of Natural Focal Zoonoses in the South of Russia"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_51_1","first-page":"16","volume-title":"Ocherki po fizicheskoy geografii Kazahstana [Essays on the physical geography of Kazakhstan","author":"Rybin N. 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M.","year":"1992"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_65_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-12-2727-2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_66_1","first-page":"44","article-title":"Zoonoznyye infektsii v ochagakh chumy Respubliki Kazakhstan [Zoonotic infections in plague foci of the Republic of Kazakhstan]","volume":"2","author":"Tynybekov A. S.","year":"1997","journal-title":"Meditsinskaia parazitologiia i parazitarnye bolezni"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_67_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2022.0022"},{"issue":"3","key":"e_1_2_9_1_68_1","first-page":"R46","article-title":"Wild brown rats (Rattus norvegicus) as a zoonotic risk on farms in England and Wales","volume":"6","author":"Webster J.","year":"1996","journal-title":"Communicable Disease Report \u2010 CDR Review"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_69_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization. (2008).Interregional meeting on prevention and control of plague."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_70_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2151\/jmsj.2019-051"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/wrcr.20440"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1302251110"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_4_1","unstructured":"Jones P. &Wint W.(2015).Data set produced by Waen Associates for environmental research group Oxford limited funded by the international research Consortium on dengue risk Assessment management and surveillance (IDAMS) European Union's Seventh framework programme for research technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 281803."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1246752"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/essd-2016-65"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_7_1","volume-title":"Protected planet: The world database on protected areas","author":"UNEP\u2010WCMC & IUCN","year":"2020"}],"container-title":["GeoHealth"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1029\/2023GH000853","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,12]],"date-time":"2023-12-12T21:57:17Z","timestamp":1702418237000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1029\/2023GH000853"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,11]]},"references-count":75,"journal-issue":{"issue":"11","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,11]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1029\/2023GH000853"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2023gh000853","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["2471-1403","2471-1403"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2471-1403","type":"print"},{"value":"2471-1403","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,11]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2023-05-10","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2023-10-24","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2023-11-13","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e2023GH000853"}}