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West Nile exists in a complex transmission cycle between avian hosts and the arthropod vector,\n                    <jats:italic>Culex<\/jats:italic>\n                    spp. mosquitoes. Human spillover events occur when humans are bitten by an infected mosquito and predicting these rates of infection and therefore the risk to humans may be associated with fluctuations in environmental conditions. In this study, we evaluate the hydrological and meteorological drivers associated with mosquito biology and viral development to determine if these associations can be used to forecast seasonal mosquito infection rates with WNV in the Coachella Valley of California. We developed and tested a spatially resolved ensemble forecast model of the WNV mosquito infection rate in the Coachella Valley using 17\u00a0years of mosquito surveillance data and North American Land Data Assimilation System\u20102 environmental data. Our multi\u2010model inference system indicated that the combination of a cooler and dryer winter, followed by a wetter and warmer spring, and a cooler than normal summer was most predictive of the prevalence of West Nile positive mosquitoes in the Coachella Valley. The ability to make accurate early season predictions of West Nile risk has the potential to allow local abatement districts and public health entities to implement early season interventions such as targeted adulticiding and public health messaging before human transmission occurs. Such early and targeted interventions could better mitigate the risk of WNV to humans.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1029\/2023gh000855","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,7]],"date-time":"2023-12-07T23:44:50Z","timestamp":1701992690000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":20,"title":["A Spatially Resolved and Environmentally Informed Forecast Model of West Nile Virus in Coachella Valley, California"],"prefix":"10.1029","volume":"7","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8373-8438","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Matthew J.","family":"Ward","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Environmental Medicine and Public Health Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai  New York NY USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Meytar","family":"Sorek\u2010Hamer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universities Space Research Association (USRA) at NASA Ames Research Center  Moffett Field CA USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0006-9560-1643","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jennifer A.","family":"Henke","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Coachella Valley Mosquito &amp; Vector Control District  Indio CA USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Eliza","family":"Little","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Connecticut Department of Public Health  Hartford CT USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Aman","family":"Patel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Environmental Medicine and Public Health Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai  New York NY USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7216-7809","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jeffery","family":"Shaman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Columbia Climate School  New York NY USA"},{"name":"Mailman School of Public Health  New York NY USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Krishna","family":"Vemuri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Environmental Medicine and Public Health Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai  New York NY USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicholas B.","family":"DeFelice","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Environmental Medicine and Public Health Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai  New York NY USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"13","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jme\/tjz150"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","volume-title":"A practical information\u2010theoretic approach","author":"Burnham K. 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