{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,29]],"date-time":"2026-01-29T03:23:00Z","timestamp":1769656980158,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":44,"publisher":"American Geophysical Union (AGU)","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,28]],"date-time":"2026-01-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1769558400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":27,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["GeoHealth"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    <jats:italic>Salmonella<\/jats:italic>\n                    infections contribute significantly to gastrointestinal\u2010related hospitalisations in Australia and remain a major global public health concern. Although seasonal patterns in\n                    <jats:italic>Salmonella<\/jats:italic>\n                    incidence have been documented globally, there is limited evidence on the influence of climatic factors, particularly rainfall, humidity, flooding, and temperature, in the Australian context. This study investigated the relationship between climatic extremes and\n                    <jats:italic>Salmonella<\/jats:italic>\n                    infections across Local Health Districts (LHDs) in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, using a Spatial Bayesian Distributed Lag Non\u2010Linear Model. Spatial modeling revealed a marked geographical heterogeneity in the risk of\n                    <jats:italic>Salmonella<\/jats:italic>\n                    related to climate in NSW. High ambient temperatures consistently increased risk, with 99th\u2010percentile contrasts typically yielding relative risks (RR) of 2.4\u20134.8 across LHDs. Monthly rainfall showed the opposite direction statewide: very dry months were associated with a higher risk, whereas very wet months were generally protective (RR1). In contrast, discrete flooding events were strongly and positively associated with risk (99th\u2010percentile flood index RR 18\u201323.5), with the greatest effects in some LHDs of the metropolitan\/coastal region. Humidity displayed modest but consistent positive associations (99th\u2010percentile RR 1.1\u20131.5). Temperature and humidity exhibited J\u2010shaped exposure\u2010response relationships, where the lowest risk occurred at moderate values. This contrasts with rainfall, which demonstrated an inverse (protective) association, and flooding, which showed a monotonic increase in risk with intensity. These results have important public\u2010health implications under a warming, flood\u2010prone climate.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1029\/2025gh001617","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,28]],"date-time":"2026-01-28T10:55:46Z","timestamp":1769597746000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Too Hot, Too Wet: Bayesian Spatial Modeling of Climate\u2010Driven Salmonella Risk in New South Wales, Australia, 1991\u20132022"],"prefix":"10.1029","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9793-8024","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Oyelola A.","family":"Adegboye","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Menzies School of Health Research Charles Darwin University  Darwin NT Australia"},{"name":"Public Health and Tropical Medicine College of Medicine and Dentistry James Cook University  Townsville QLD Australia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Tehan","family":"Amarasena","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Public Health and Tropical Medicine College of Medicine and Dentistry James Cook University  Townsville QLD Australia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mohammad Afzal","family":"Khan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Information Technology Monash University  Melbourne VIC Australia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Hassan","family":"Ajulo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Public Health and Tropical Medicine College of Medicine and Dentistry James Cook University  Townsville QLD Australia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Anton","family":"Pak","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for the Business and Economics of Health The University of Queensland  Brisbane QLD Australia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"David","family":"Taniar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Information Technology Monash University  Melbourne VIC Australia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Theophilus I.","family":"Emeto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Public Health and Tropical Medicine College of Medicine and Dentistry James Cook University  Townsville QLD Australia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"13","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Adegboye O. &Khan M. A.(2025).oyeadegboye\/salmonella\u2010data\u2010repo: Climate\u2010driven salmonella risk (0.1.0)[Dataset].Zenodo.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.17766458","DOI":"10.5281\/zenodo.17766458"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/fpd.2014.1802"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","article-title":"National notifiable diseases surveillance system (nndss) public dataset \u2013 Salmonella","author":"Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care","year":"2024","journal-title":"Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care"},{"issue":"6","key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","article-title":"Environmental conditions impacting survival of salmonella on surfaces","volume":"85","author":"Baker J. R.","year":"2019","journal-title":"Applied and Environmental Microbiology"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/bf00116466"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","volume-title":"Model selection and multimodel inference: A practical information\u2010theoretic approach","author":"Burnham K. P.","year":"2002"},{"issue":"3","key":"e_1_2_10_8_1","first-page":"288","article-title":"Temporal and environmental patterns of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in the chesapeake Bay region","volume":"156","author":"Curriero F. C.","year":"2001","journal-title":"American Journal of Epidemiology"},{"issue":"10","key":"e_1_2_10_9_1","first-page":"806","article-title":"Searching for salmonella","volume":"37","author":"Darby J.","year":"2008","journal-title":"Australian Journal of General Practice"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2022.156980"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/10618600.2016.1172487"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/01.ede.0000101021.03453.3e"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_13_1","first-page":"1183","article-title":"Flooding and public health: A critical review of the evidence","volume":"367","author":"Ebi K. L.","year":"2006","journal-title":"Health Effects of Flooding"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_14_1","first-page":"405","volume-title":"Managing water resources under climate uncertainty: Examples from Asia, Europe, latin america, and Australia","author":"Ferrand E. A.","year":"2014"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0163989"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.3940"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140\u20106736(22)02185\u20107"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/9781351271769"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a115853"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_20_1","volume-title":"Therapeutic advances in infectious diseases","author":"Manchal N.","year":"2025"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268824000839"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/s0950268815002587"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jinf.2016.04.034"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12940\u2010021\u201000787\u2010y"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_25_1","unstructured":"NSW Health. (2024).Salmonella fact sheet. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.health.nsw.gov.au\/Infectious\/factsheets\/Pages\/salmonella.aspx(Accessed: 2025\u201004\u201009)"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_26_1","unstructured":"NSW Department of Planning Housing and Infrastructure. (2024).Population projections: Explore the data. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.planning.nsw.gov.au\/data\u2010and\u2010insights\/population\u2010projections\/explore\u2010the\u2010data"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_27_1","unstructured":"NSW Government. (2024).Nsw climate change adaptation action plan 2025\u20132029. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au\/about\u2010adaptnsw\/nsw\u2010government\u2010action\u2010climate\u2010change\/Adaptation\u2010Action\u2010Plan\u20102025\u20102029. Accessed 26 06 2025."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_28_1","unstructured":"NSW Treasury. (2021).Intergenerational report treasury technical research paper series: An indicative assessment of four key areas of climate risk for the 2021 NSW intergenerational report. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.treasury.nsw.gov.au\/nsw\u2010economy\/nsw\u2010intergenerational\u2010report\/nsw\u2010intergenerational\u2010report\u2010treasury\u2010technical\u2010research"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyae061"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s40475\u2010024\u201000326\u2010y"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2024.131986"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1701.p11101"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s40572\u2010020\u201000294\u20101"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1176344136"},{"issue":"7","key":"e_1_2_10_35_1","first-page":"671","article-title":"Climate change impact assessment of food\u2010 and waterborne diseases","volume":"42","author":"Semenza J. C.","year":"2012","journal-title":"Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2019.100092"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467\u20109868.00353"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598\u2010021\u201001030\u2010x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00484\u2010003\u20100193\u2010z"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598\u2010019\u201056688\u20101"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.wse.2025.08.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_42_1","article-title":"Effects of ambient temperature on salmonella infections in temperate regions: A multi\u2010region time\u2010series analysis","volume":"182","author":"Williams L. A.","year":"2020","journal-title":"Environmental Research"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_43_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization. (2018a).Climate change and health: Key facts. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.who.int\/news\u2010room\/fact\u2010sheets\/detail\/climate\u2010change\u2010and\u2010health(Factsheet"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_44_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization. (2018b).Salmonella (non\u2010typhoidal). Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.who.int\/news\u2010room\/fact\u2010sheets\/detail\/salmonella\u2010(non\u2010typhoidal) (Accessed: 2025\u201004\u201009)"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2009.10.068"}],"container-title":["GeoHealth"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1029\/2025GH001617","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1029\/2025GH001617","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1029\/2025GH001617","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,28]],"date-time":"2026-01-28T14:38:28Z","timestamp":1769611108000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1029\/2025GH001617"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,1]]},"references-count":44,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,1]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1029\/2025GH001617"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2025gh001617","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["2471-1403","2471-1403"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2471-1403","type":"print"},{"value":"2471-1403","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,1]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2025-08-06","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-11-10","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-01-28","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e2025GH001617"}}