{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,29]],"date-time":"2026-01-29T02:48:59Z","timestamp":1769654939291,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":55,"publisher":"American Geophysical Union (AGU)","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,31]],"date-time":"2025-12-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767139200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,31]],"date-time":"2025-12-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767139200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000060","name":"National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01AI148336"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01AI148336"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000060","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["GeoHealth"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Downscaled climate projections provide valuable information needed to better understand the impacts of climate change on health outcomes and to inform adaptation and mitigation strategies at local to regional scales. Because downscaled climate products vary in their representations of fine\u2010scale spatiotemporal patterns, due to of multiple interacting factors, epidemiologic\u00a0analyses need to consider how differences across downscaling approaches impact projections of health impacts into the future. We evaluate the projected seasonality of coccidioidomycosis in response to projected temperature and precipitation estimated using global climate models from CMIP6 included in California's Fifth Climate Change Assessment, downscaled using two approaches: (a) dynamical downscaling using the Weather Research and Forecasting model; and (b) hybrid statistical downscaling using the Localized Constructed Analogs approach. Our results indicate that by end of century, coccidioidomycosis transmission is projected to start earlier, end later, and last longer across the California endemic region; however, the magnitude of these changes varies by downscaling method. Specifically, LOCA2\u2010hybrid projected a season onset that is 4.2\u00a0weeks earlier and an end that is 4.1\u00a0weeks later than historical conditions, while the dynamical approach projected a 4\u00a0week earlier onset and a 3.8\u00a0week later end compared to the historical period. Overall, the LOCA2\u2010hybrid product estimates that the transmission season will last about 0.3\u00a0weeks longer than what is projected using dynamical downscaling by end of century. This analysis highlights the sensitivity of coccidioidomycosis seasonality projections to choice of downscaling product, underscoring the need to account for these differences in mitigation and adaptation planning.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1029\/2025gh001624","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,31]],"date-time":"2025-12-31T08:00:51Z","timestamp":1767168051000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Choice of Downscaled Climate Product Matters: Projections of Valley Fever Seasonality in a Warming Climate"],"prefix":"10.1029","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5046-0414","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Claire L.","family":"Schollaert","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environmental Health Sciences UCLA Fielding School of Public Health  Los Angeles CA USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3787-170X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Simon","family":"Camponuri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Environmental Health Sciences School of Public Health University of California, Berkeley  Berkeley CA USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Lisa","family":"Couper","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Environmental Health Sciences School of Public Health University of California, Berkeley  Berkeley CA USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1449-4171","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jennifer R.","family":"Head","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology School of Public Health University of Michigan  Ann Arbor MI USA"},{"name":"Institute for Global Change Biology University of Michigan  Ann Arbor MI USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5104-5418","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alexandra","family":"Heaney","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity University of California San Diego  San Diego CA USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3188-4462","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Stefan","family":"Rahimi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Atmospheric Science University of Wyoming  Laramie WY USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Justin V.","family":"Remais","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Environmental Health Sciences School of Public Health University of California, Berkeley  Berkeley CA USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Miriam E.","family":"Marlier","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environmental Health Sciences UCLA Fielding School of Public Health  Los Angeles CA USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"13","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,31]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.14405"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2013eo460005"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","first-page":"713","article-title":"Review of downscaling methods in climate change and their role in hydrological studies","volume":"8","author":"Bhuvandas N.","year":"2014","journal-title":"International Journal of Environmental Ecology, Geology and Marine Engineering"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2020ef001782"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2024.0821"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid3105.241338"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1289\/ehp.7786"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph13080804"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2016gh000033"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520\u20100450(1994)033<0140:astmfm>2.0.co;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0247263"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd\u201015\u20102973\u20102022"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/wcc.339"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd\u20109\u20101937\u20102016"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1256\/smsqj.51508"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2017gh000095"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/wcas\u2010d\u201020\u20100036.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph13030267"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382\u2010022\u201006361\u20107"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s2542\u20105196(22)00202\u20109"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.lana.2024.100864"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_23_1","unstructured":"Hess J. Saha S. Schramm P. Conlon K. Uejio C. &Luber G.(2017).Projecting climate\u2010related disease burden: A guide for health departments. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/climate\u2010health\/media\/pdfs\/ProjectingClimateRelatedDiseaseBurden_508.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1061\/(asce)he.1943\u20105584.0000939"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/9781108601269"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_26_1","unstructured":"Krantz W. Pierce D. Goldenson N. &Cayan D.(2021).Memorandum on evaluating global climate models for studying regional climate change in California."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41612\u2010023\u201000486\u20100"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2019ms002012"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2020ef001736"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/bams\u2010d\u201011\u201000223.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s43247\u2010025\u201002134\u20102"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd\u20109\u20103461\u20102016"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envres.2011.08.013"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_34_1","article-title":"LOCA2\u2010hybrid for California (ca. May 2023)","author":"Pierce D.","year":"2023","journal-title":"LOCA Statistical Downscaling (Localized Constructed Analogs)"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/jhm\u2010d\u201014\u20100082.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_36_1","unstructured":"Pierce D. W. Rahimi S. Cayan D. R. &Kalansky J.(2024).Data adoption justification memo (for California's fifth climate change assessment): LOCA version 2 hybrid downscaling. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.energy.ca.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/2024\u201003\/04_HybridDownscaling_DataJustificationMemo_Pierce_Adopted_ada.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/15\u20100745"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_38_1","unstructured":"PRISM Group. (2025).Oregon State university. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/prism.oregonstate.edu"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd\u201017\u20102265\u20102024"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2023gl106264"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/bams\u2010d\u201021\u20100326.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0270\u20100255(86)90088\u20106"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2019ms001791"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0157492"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_45_1","unstructured":"Statewide Summary Report. (2018).California\u2019s fourth climate change assessment. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.energy.ca.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/2019\u201011\/Statewide_Reports\u2010SUM\u2010CCCA4\u20102018\u2010013_Statewide_Summary_Report_ADA.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/jhm\u2010d\u201021\u20100045.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/10962247.2015.1033068"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2021gl092843"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558\u2010018\u20100140\u2010y"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cliser.2017.06.008"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab28b0"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2023.129693"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_53_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2020jd032812"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_54_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/jcli\u2010d\u201014\u201000196.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_55_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsoft.2017.06.016"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_56_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10393\u2010018\u20101375\u20109"}],"container-title":["GeoHealth"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1029\/2025GH001624","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1029\/2025GH001624","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1029\/2025GH001624","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,28]],"date-time":"2026-01-28T14:38:18Z","timestamp":1769611098000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1029\/2025GH001624"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,31]]},"references-count":55,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,1]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1029\/2025GH001624"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2025gh001624","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["2471-1403","2471-1403"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2471-1403","type":"print"},{"value":"2471-1403","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,31]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2025-08-08","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-11-24","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-12-31","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e2025GH001624"}}