{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,5]],"date-time":"2026-10-05T11:02:47Z","timestamp":1791198167269,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":53,"publisher":"American Geophysical Union (AGU)","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,5]],"date-time":"2026-10-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1791158400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":4,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]],"date-time":"2026-10-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1790812800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["GeoHealth"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Childhood lead exposure causes irreversible neurodevelopmental harm, and no safe blood lead level in children has been identified. Measured childhood blood lead is collected unevenly across the United States, and many areas publish no neighborhood\u2010level surveillance, so the children at highest risk are often the hardest to find by measurement. Building on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency finding that housing age and poverty predict where childhood lead exposure concentrates, we computed a lead\u2010exposure risk score for all 83,388 U.S. census tracts and 3,222 counties from public American Community Survey housing\u2010age and poverty data, and tested it against measured childhood blood lead in 11 states by Spearman rank correlation. On surveillance the source study never used, predicted risk tracked measured elevated blood lead at rho\u00a0=\u00a00.64 across Wisconsin's 1,308 census tracts, with five independent county\u2010scale states ranging from 0.48 to 0.77 and three further independent tract states (Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Minnesota) agreeing. A flexible model on the same public inputs explains only about half the tract\u2010level variance, so housing age and poverty leave most of the variation unexplained, and the map is a screening signal rather than a diagnosis. Every validation state is an older\u2010housing Northeast, Midwest, or Great Plains jurisdiction, so the low\u2010risk predictions for the newer\u2010built West and Sun Belt remain an untested extrapolation. Reproducible from public data and free to use, the map ranks where confirmatory testing should go first, including in states that publish no surveillance of their own.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1029\/2026gh002053","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,5]],"date-time":"2026-10-05T10:30:02Z","timestamp":1791196202000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Childhood Lead\u2010Exposure Prevention Through Predictive Mapping of At\u2010Risk Housing Nationwide: A Free, Public\u2010Data Screening Map Checked Against Measured Blood Lead in 11 States"],"prefix":"10.1029","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0003-5858-7609","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Eric C.","family":"Ritter","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Fluoro\u2010Spec Inc. (DetectLead.com)  East Setauket NY USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"13","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,5]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","first-page":"5","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 24th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining","author":"Abernethy J.","year":"2018"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","volume-title":"Low level lead exposure harms children: A renewed call for primary prevention","author":"Advisory Committee on Childhood Lead Poisoning Prevention","year":"2012"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph110606314"},{"issue":"6","key":"e_1_2_7_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1002\/alz70860_101687","article-title":"Historical atmospheric lead concentrations (1960\u20101974) and memory problems half a century later [Conference abstract]","volume":"21","author":"Brown E. E.","year":"2025","journal-title":"Alzheimer\u2019s & Dementia"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa022848"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_7_1","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (n.d.\u2010f).Preventing childhood lead poisoning: Sources of lead exposure. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/lead\u2010prevention\/prevention\/index.html"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_8_1","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2021a).CDC updates blood lead reference value. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/lead\u2010prevention\/php\/news\u2010features\/updates\u2010blood\u2010lead\u2010reference\u2010value.html"},{"issue":"43","key":"e_1_2_7_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1509","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm7043a4","article-title":"Update of the blood lead reference value, United States, 2021","volume":"70","author":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","year":"2021","journal-title":"Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_10_1","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (n.d.\u2010a).About childhood lead poisoning prevention. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/lead\u2010prevention\/about\/index.html"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_11_1","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (n.d.\u2010b).About the data: Blood lead surveillance. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/lead\u2010prevention\/php\/data\/blood\u2010lead\u2010surveillance.html"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_12_1","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (n.d.\u2010c).Childhood blood lead surveillance: National data. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/lead\u2010prevention\/php\/data\/national\u2010surveillance\u2010data.html"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_13_1","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (n.d.\u2010d).Data and statistics childhood lead poisoning prevention. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/lead\u2010prevention\/php\/data\/index.html"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_14_1","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (n.d.\u2010e).Environmental public health tracking: Childhood lead poisoning. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/environmental\u2010health\u2010tracking\/php\/data\u2010research\/childhood\u2010lead\u2010poisoning.html"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_15_1","volume-title":"Lead exposure risk index [Data platform]","author":"City Health Dashboard"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_16_1","volume-title":"The risk of lead poisoning isn\u2019t just in Flint. So we mapped the risk in every neighborhood in America","author":"Frostenson S.","year":"2016"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1289\/ehp.021100599"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1289\/ehp.11540"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/phr\/115.6.521"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1289\/ehp.7688"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2118631119"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1289\/ehp.02110947"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM197903293001301"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_24_1","unstructured":"New York State Department of Health. (n.d.).Childhood blood lead testing and elevated incidence by zip code: Beginning 2000[Dataset]. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/health.data.ny.gov\/Health\/Childhood\u2010Blood\u2010Lead\u2010Testing\u2010and\u2010Elevated\u2010Incidenc\/d54z\u2010enu8"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_25_1","volume-title":"Off the charts: The thousands of U.S. locales where lead poisoning is worse than in Flint","author":"Pell M. B.","year":"2016"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_26_1","unstructured":"PolicyMap. (n.d.).Risk of lead exposure. [Data platform] Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.policymap.com\/data\/sources\/washington\u2010state\u2010department\u2010of\u2010health\u2010vox\u2010media\u2010policymap"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2039","DOI":"10.1145\/2783258.2788629","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 21st ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining","author":"Potash E.","year":"2015"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1289\/ehp.0110989"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Ritter E. C.(2026).Childhood lead\u2010exposure prevention through predictive mapping of at\u2010risk housing nationwide: A free public\u2010data screening map checked against measured blood lead in eleven states (code and data) (Version 10.0.2)[Software and dataset].Zenodo.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.20531598","DOI":"10.5281\/zenodo.20531598"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s0033\u20103549(04)50243\u20101"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S1742058X16000151"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/enrs.1997.3755"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2105\/ajph.85.4.528"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apgeog.2013.11.002"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41370\u2010024\u201000666\u2010x"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyn359"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_37_1","unstructured":"U.S. Census Bureau. (2023a).2018\u20102022 ACS 5\u2010year estimates: Technical documentation table and geography changes. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.census.gov\/programs\u2010surveys\/acs\/technical\u2010documentation\/table\u2010and\u2010geography\u2010changes\/2022\/5\u2010year.html"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_38_1","unstructured":"U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (2023).Finding that lead emissions from certain aircraft engines that operate on leaded fuel cause or contribute to air pollution that may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health and welfare. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.epa.gov\/regulations\u2010emissions\u2010vehicles\u2010and\u2010engines\/regulations\u2010onboard\u2010diagnostics\u2010and\u2010lead\u2010emissions\u2010aircraft"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_39_1","unstructured":"U.S. Census Bureau. (2018).Using American Community Survey estimates and margins of error [Webinar transcript]. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.census.gov\/content\/dam\/Census\/programs\u2010surveys\/acs\/guidance\/training\u2010presentations\/20180418_MOE_Webinar_Transcript.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_40_1","unstructured":"U.S. Census Bureau. (2022).Increased margins of error in the 5\u2010year estimates containing data collected in 2020 [User note]. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.census.gov\/programs\u2010surveys\/acs\/technical\u2010documentation\/user\u2010notes\/2022\u201004.html"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_41_1","unstructured":"U.S. Census Bureau. (2023b).Census Data API: ACS 2022 5\u2010year Table B25034 (year structure built) variable group. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/api.census.gov\/data\/2022\/acs\/acs5\/groups\/B25034.html"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_42_1","unstructured":"U.S. Census Bureau. (2023c).American Community Survey 5\u2010year data (2009\u20102023) [API documentation; 2018\u20102022 release dated December 7 2023]. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.census.gov\/data\/developers\/data\u2010sets\/acs\u20105year.html"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_43_1","unstructured":"U.S. Census Bureau. (2023d).Table S1701: Poverty status in the past 12 months ACS 2018\u20102022 5\u2010year estimates[Dataset]. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/data.census.gov\/table\/ACSST5Y2022.S1701"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_44_1","unstructured":"U.S. Census Bureau. (2023e).Table B01003: Total population ACS 2018\u20102022 5\u2010year estimates[Dataset]. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/data.census.gov\/table\/ACSDT5Y2022.B01003"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_45_1","unstructured":"U.S. Census Bureau. (2023f).Table B25034: Year structure built ACS 2018\u20102022 5\u2010year estimates[Dataset]. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/data.census.gov\/table\/ACSDT5Y2022.B25034"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_46_1","unstructured":"U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Lead Hazard Control and Healthy Homes. (2021).American Healthy Homes Survey II: Lead findings. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.huduser.gov\/portal\/pdredge\/pdr\u2010edge\u2010trending\u2010030822.html"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_47_1","unstructured":"U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (n.d.).Lead and Copper Rule revisions. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.epa.gov\/ground\u2010water\u2010and\u2010drinking\u2010water\/lead\u2010and\u2010copper\u2010rule\u2010revisions"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_48_1","unstructured":"U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (1995).Report on the national survey of lead\u2010based paint in housing: Base report (EPA 747\u2010R\u201095\u2010003). Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.epa.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/documents\/r95\u2010003.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_49_1","unstructured":"Washington State Department of Health. (n.d.).Lead exposure risk index: Data notes. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/doh.wa.gov\/data\u2010and\u2010statistical\u2010reports\/washington\u2010tracking\u2010network\u2010wtn\/lead\u2010risk\u2010and\u2010exposure\/lead\u2010exposure\u2010risk\u2010ibl\u2010data\u2010notes"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_50_1","unstructured":"Washington State Department of Health Childhood Lead Poisoning Prevention Program. (2016).Lead exposure risk index. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/doh.wa.gov\/data\u2010and\u2010statistical\u2010reports\/washington\u2010tracking\u2010network\u2010wtn\/lead\u2010risk\u2010and\u2010exposure"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_51_1","unstructured":"Wisconsin Department of Health Services. (n.d.).Childhood lead poisoning data by census tract [ArcGIS map service]. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/dhsgis.wi.gov\/server\/rest\/services\/DHS_CLPDE\/Childhood_Lead_Data\/MapServer"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1289\/EHP9705"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_53_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.2022.307051"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_54_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1021\/acs.est.3c07881"}],"container-title":["GeoHealth"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1029\/2026GH002053","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1029\/2026GH002053","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1029\/2026GH002053","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,5]],"date-time":"2026-10-05T10:30:15Z","timestamp":1791196215000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1029\/2026GH002053"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,10]]},"references-count":53,"journal-issue":{"issue":"10","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1029\/2026GH002053"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2026gh002053","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["2471-1403","2471-1403"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2471-1403","type":"print"},{"value":"2471-1403","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,10]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2026-06-09","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-07-27","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-10-05","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e2026GH002053"}}