{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,16]],"date-time":"2026-08-16T06:59:03Z","timestamp":1786863543831,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":65,"publisher":"American Geophysical Union (AGU)","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,24]],"date-time":"2021-02-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1614124800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":23,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["41971403"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["41971403"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["41801321"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["41801321"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Water Resources Research"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Lake Hulun is the fifth\u2010largest lake in China, playing a substantial role in maintaining the balance of the grassland ecosystem of the Mongolia Plateau, which is a crucial ecological barrier in North China. To better understand the changing characteristics of Lake Hulun and the driving mechanisms, it is necessary to investigate the water storage changes of Lake Hulun on extended timescales. The main objective of this study is to reconstruct the water storage time series of Lake Hulun over the past century. We employed a machine learning approach termed the extreme gradient boosting tree (XGBoost) to reconstruct the water storage changes over a one\u2010century timescale based on the generated bathymetry and satellite altimetry data and investigated the relationships with hydrological and climatic variables in long term. Results show that the water storage changes from 1961 to 2019 were featured by four fluctuation phases, with the highest water storage observed in 1991 (14.02\u00a0Gt) and the lowest point in 2012 (5.18\u00a0Gt). The century\u2010scale reconstruction result reveals that the water storage of Lake Hulun reached the highest point in the 1960s within the period of 1910\u20132019. The lowest stage occurred in the sub\u2010period of the 1930s\u20131940s, which was even lower than the alerted shrinkage stage in 2012. The predictive model results indicate the effective performance of the XGBoost model in reconstructing century\u2010scale water storage variations, with the mean absolute error of 0.68, normalized root mean square error of 0.11, Nash\u2013Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.97, and correlation coefficient of 0.94. The annual fluctuations of water storage were mostly affected by precipitation, followed by vapor pressure, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and wet day frequency. The dominating characteristics of different variables vary evidently with different sub\u2010periods. The atmospheric circulations of the Arctic Oscillation, El Nino Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation have tight associations with the water storage variations of Lake Hulun, which change with different study periods.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1029\/2020wr028831","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,6]],"date-time":"2021-02-06T13:22:56Z","timestamp":1612617776000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":62,"title":["Century\u2010Scale Reconstruction of Water Storage Changes of the Largest Lake in the Inner Mongolia Plateau Using a Machine Learning Approach"],"prefix":"10.1029","volume":"57","author":[{"given":"Chenyu","family":"Fan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology Chinese Academy of Sciences  Nanjing China"},{"name":"School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering Henan Polytechnic University  Jiaozuo China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1060-4636","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Chunqiao","family":"Song","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology Chinese Academy of Sciences  Nanjing China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kai","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology Chinese Academy of Sciences  Nanjing China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Linghong","family":"Ke","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Hydrology\u2010Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Hohai University  Nanjing China"},{"name":"College of Hydrology and Water Resources Hohai University  Nanjing China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bin","family":"Xue","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology Chinese Academy of Sciences  Nanjing China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tan","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology Chinese Academy of Sciences  Nanjing China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9989-374X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Congsheng","family":"Fu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology Chinese Academy of Sciences  Nanjing China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jian","family":"Cheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology Chinese Academy of Sciences  Nanjing China"},{"name":"School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering Henan Polytechnic University  Jiaozuo China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"13","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2018.04.159"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/w7073243"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-014-2273-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.advwatres.2016.05.010"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2020.111974"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00442-008-0993-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2020.125544"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chen T. &Guestrin C.(2016).Xgboost: A scalable tree boosting system.Paper presented at Proceedings of the 22nd acm sigkdd international conference on knowledge discovery and data mining.","DOI":"10.1145\/2939672.2939785"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10712-016-9362-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.asr.2011.01.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","unstructured":"Cruickshank D. W. Helliwell J. R. &Johnson L. N.(1992).Time\u2010resolved macromolecular crystallography. Proceedings of a royal society discussion meeting. Oxford; New York: Oxford University Press."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.aqpro.2015.02.126"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/rs12050793"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1013203451"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2011WR011507"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/w9050363"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2000GL012311"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/npg-11-561-2004"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41597-020-0453-3"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/essd-11-1153-2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-246X.2005.02518.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)1084-0699(2008)13:10(981)"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2020.125239"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/adgeo-5-89-2005"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2166\/nh.2016.264"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2019WR026551"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jvcir.2018.12.031"},{"issue":"3","key":"e_1_2_9_29_1","first-page":"385","article-title":"Characteristics of hydrogen and oxygen isotopes of surface and groundwater and the analysis of source of lakewater in Hulun lake basin, inner Mongolia","volume":"15","author":"Liang L.\u2010e.","year":"2017","journal-title":"Wetland Sci\u2010China"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1021\/es305298q"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01431161.2013.827814"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2010GL045514"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)1084-0699(2006)11:6(597)"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ncomms13603"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7717\/peerj-cs.127"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature20584"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2020.111792"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-011-0096-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2016WR019933"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/rs12030533"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2015.12.041"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2013WR014724"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.6320"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.geoderma.2015.06.024"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2018JD029842"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-19-0471.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2019WR026250"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/nsr\/nwz103"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1411748112"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02080.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0477(1998)079<0061:APGTWA>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2014GL060641"},{"issue":"9","key":"e_1_2_9_53_1","first-page":"94","article-title":"Spatio\u2010temporal Monitoring of Hulun Lake Using Remote Sensing","volume":"35","author":"Wang B.","year":"2012","journal-title":"Environmental Science & Technology"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_54_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/bioinformatics\/bty750"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_55_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41561-018-0265-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_56_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2013.01.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_57_1","volume-title":"TanDEM\u2010X ground segment\u2013DEM products specification document","author":"Wessel B.","year":"2018"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_58_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10115-007-0114-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_59_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0959683609336574"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_60_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01431161.2018.1516316"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_61_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2018.11.038"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_62_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11434-013-5818-y"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_63_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1117\/1.JRS.10.016029"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_64_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2019.06.341"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_65_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2005584117"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_66_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2020.124819"}],"container-title":["Water Resources Research"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1029\/2020WR028831","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1029\/2020WR028831","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1029\/2020WR028831","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,11]],"date-time":"2025-03-11T16:01:27Z","timestamp":1741708887000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1029\/2020WR028831"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,2]]},"references-count":65,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,2]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1029\/2020WR028831"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2020wr028831","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0043-1397","1944-7973"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0043-1397","type":"print"},{"value":"1944-7973","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,2]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2020-09-17","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-02-02","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-02-24","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e2020WR028831"}}