{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,14]],"date-time":"2026-03-14T01:08:25Z","timestamp":1773450505301,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":48,"publisher":"American Geophysical Union (AGU)","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,4]],"date-time":"2024-04-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1712188800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":3,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,1]],"date-time":"2024-04-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1711929600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Water Resources Research"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>This study proposes a methodology for developing deterioration models and predicting the service lives of vertical assets of urban water systems (i.e., water storage tanks and pumping stations) using regression analysis. The main factors contributing to the deterioration of these assets are analyzed. Simple and multiple linear regression models of average and maximum deterioration are calculated for 22 water storage tanks and 17 wastewater pumping stations. Data on a set of four water storage tanks are used to validate the developed deterioration models. Service life prediction is carried out using the developed models and considering two maximum deterioration levels: the maximum recommended and admissible deterioration levels. Two water storage tanks are further studied to illustrate and discuss the effect of maintenance and rehabilitation interventions on asset service life by comparing the asset deterioration before and after the interventions. Results include simple linear regression models of average and maximum deterioration indices as a function of asset age and multiple linear regression models that incorporate other physical, operational and environmental factors. The results show that simple linear regression models of asset deterioration show a better predictive power than multiple regression models. Despite the higher data variability of multiple regression models, these models allow to include the random process of asset deterioration, through the calculation of the standard deviation. This study also shows that periodic interventions are a preferable maintenance and rehabilitation strategy over major sporadic rehabilitation interventions since it allows to maintain assets in good condition and to extend their service life almost indefinitely.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1029\/2023wr034854","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,4]],"date-time":"2024-04-04T08:06:03Z","timestamp":1712217963000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Deterioration Models and Service Life Prediction of Vertical Assets of Urban Water Systems"],"prefix":"10.1029","volume":"60","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2734-8504","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"M.","family":"Cabral","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"CERIS Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico Universidade de Lisboa  Lisboa Portugal"}]},{"given":"D.","family":"Loureiro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Urban Water Unit, National Civil Engineering Laboratory  Lisboa Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6664-6486","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"C.","family":"Amado","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CEMAT Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico Universidade de Lisboa  Lisboa Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6901-4767","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"D.","family":"Covas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CERIS Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico Universidade de Lisboa  Lisboa Portugal"}]}],"member":"13","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,4]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.proeng.2014.11.469"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.watres.2019.114926"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)0887\u20103828(2006)20:2(136)"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/1573062X.2019.1648528"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11269\u2010022\u201003074\u20108"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)CF.1943\u20105509.0001744"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","volume-title":"9th international conference on durability of buildings materials and components","author":"Cecconi F.","year":"2002"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1061\/(asce)0887\u20103828(2008)22:5(333)"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/37.3\u20104.409"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.watres.2013.09.010"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1115\/1.3159045"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_1","volume-title":"Primer on condition curves for water mains","author":"EPA","year":"2013"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_14_1","volume-title":"A best practice by the national guide to sustainable municipal infrastructure","author":"FCMNRC","year":"2003"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_15_1","volume-title":"The leading edge sustainable asset management of water and wastewater infrastructure conference (LESAM)","author":"Feliciano J.","year":"2017"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jobe.2020.101571"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_17_1","volume-title":"Methodology for calculating the durability of current exterior plasters","author":"Gaspar P.","year":"2002"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_18_1","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 4th world congress on engineering asset management","author":"Gorjian N.","year":"2009"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_19_1","volume-title":"Review of Sydney water corporation\u2019s asset lives and asset value estimates","author":"Halcrow","year":"2007"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_20_1","volume-title":"Draft report","author":"Hovde P. J.","year":"2000"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_21_1","volume-title":"Buildings and constructed assets\u2014Service life planning\u2014Part 1: General principles and framework","author":"ISO 15686\u20101","year":"2011"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_22_1","volume-title":"Buildings and constructed assets\u2014Service life planning\u2014Part 9: Guidance on assessment of service\u2010life data","author":"ISO 15686\u20109","year":"2008"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4614-7138-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2006WR005316"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_25_1","unstructured":"Jenberg P. Sj\u00f6str\u00f6m C. Lacasse M. A. Brandt E. &Siemes T.(2004).Guide and bibliography to service life and durability research for buildings and components\u2014Part I\u2014Service life and durability research. CIB W080\/RILEM TC 140.lacra."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5558\/tfc71326\u20103"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_27_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Recent advances in methods for service life prediction of buildings materials and components \u2013 An overview","author":"Lacasse M. A.","year":"2004","journal-title":"CIB World Building Congress"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/91WR03035"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/91WR03036"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)IS.1943\u2010555X.0000154"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02472509"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_32_1","first-page":"T42","volume-title":"11th DBMC international conference on durability of building materials and components","author":"Mc Duling J.","year":"2008"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_33_1","first-page":"52","article-title":"Engineering design methods for service life prediction","volume":"2004","author":"Moser K.","year":"2004","journal-title":"CIB W080 \/ RILEM 175 SLM: Service Life Methodologies Prediction of service life for Buildings and Components, Task Group: Performance based methods of service life prediction"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_34_1","volume-title":"Ministry of public works, transport and communications","author":"NRAU","year":"2007"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11135\u2010006\u20109018\u20106"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1462\u20100758(01)00032\u20102"},{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_2_8_37_1","first-page":"6","article-title":"Interaction effects: Centering, variance inflation factor, and interpretation issues","volume":"35","author":"Robinson C.","year":"2009","journal-title":"Multiple Linear Regression Viewpoints"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.watres.2011.07.008"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.watres.2015.06.027"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.watres.2013.11.017"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.proeng.2016.07.495"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_42_1","first-page":"1666","volume-title":"8th International Conference on Durability of building materials and components","author":"Shohet I.","year":"1999"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_43_1","volume-title":"Statistical modeling of the service life prediction of facade cladding","author":"Silva A.","year":"2015"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_44_1","first-page":"1709","volume-title":"Ialcce\u2014international association for life\u2010cycle civil engineering, third international Symposium on life\u2010Cycle civil engineering, October 3\u20136","author":"Silva A.","year":"2012"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jobe.2020.102137"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jobe.2019.100944"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_47_1","unstructured":"Ugarelli R. &Bruaset S.(2010).Review of deterioration modelling approaches for ageing infrastructure. SINTEF report SBF IN A10307."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejor.2007.03.044"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jobe.2021.102750"}],"container-title":["Water Resources Research"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1029\/2023WR034854","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1029\/2023WR034854","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1029\/2023WR034854","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,17]],"date-time":"2026-02-17T13:39:46Z","timestamp":1771335586000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1029\/2023WR034854"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,4]]},"references-count":48,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,4]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1029\/2023WR034854"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2023wr034854","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0043-1397","1944-7973"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0043-1397","type":"print"},{"value":"1944-7973","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,4]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2023-03-08","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-03-11","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-04-04","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e2023WR034854"}}