{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,23]],"date-time":"2026-04-23T19:37:39Z","timestamp":1776973059849,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":200,"publisher":"American Geophysical Union (AGU)","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,4]],"date-time":"2024-09-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1725408000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":3,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100014573","name":"Earth Sciences Division","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["80NSSC21K1939"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["80NSSC21K1939"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100014573","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100014573","name":"Earth Sciences Division","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["80NSSC22K0383"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["80NSSC22K0383"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100014573","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Earth's Future"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary effort of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project\u2013Phase 6) focusing on ice sheets, designed to provide an ensemble of process\u2010based projections of the ice\u2010sheet contribution to sea\u2010level rise over the twenty\u2010first century. However, the behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet beyond 2100 remains largely unknown: several instability mechanisms can develop on longer time scales, potentially destabilizing large parts of Antarctica. Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution until 2300 are presented here, using an ensemble of 16 ice\u2010flow models and forcing from global climate models. Under high\u2010emission scenarios, the Antarctic sea\u2010level contribution is limited to less than 30\u00a0cm sea\u2010level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, but increases rapidly thereafter to reach up to 4.4\u00a0m SLE by 2300. Simulations including ice\u2010shelf collapse lead to an additional 1.1\u00a0m SLE on average by 2300, and can reach 6.9\u00a0m SLE. Widespread retreat is observed on that timescale in most West Antarctic basins, leading to a collapse of large sectors of West Antarctica by 2300 in 30%\u201340% of the ensemble. While the onset date of retreat varies among ice models, the rate of upstream propagation is highly consistent once retreat begins. Calculations of sea\u2010level contribution including water density corrections lead to an additional \u223c10% sea level and up to 50% for contributions accounting for bedrock uplift in response to ice loading. Overall, these results highlight large sea\u2010level contributions from Antarctica and suggest that the choice of ice sheet model remains the leading source of uncertainty in multi\u2010century projections.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1029\/2024ef004561","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,4]],"date-time":"2024-09-04T13:01:09Z","timestamp":1725454869000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":63,"title":["Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble"],"prefix":"10.1029","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9201-1644","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"H\u00e9l\u00e8ne","family":"Seroussi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Thayer School of Engineering Dartmouth College  Hanover NH USA"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9772-1730","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tyler","family":"Pelle","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California San Diego  La Jolla CA USA"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7100-3730","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"William H.","family":"Lipscomb","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research  Boulder CO USA"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1745-5952","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ayako","family":"Abe\u2010Ouchi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute University of Tokyo  Kashiwa Japan"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7459-2860","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Torsten","family":"Albrecht","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Leibniz Association  Potsdam Germany"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2969-0442","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jorge","family":"Alvarez\u2010Solas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de F\u00edsica de la Tierra y Astrof\u00edsica Facultad de Ciencias F\u00edsicas Universidad Complutense de Madrid  Madrid Spain"},{"name":"Instituto de Geociencias Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient\u00edficas Universidad Complutense de Madrid  Madrid Spain"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1990-892X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xylar","family":"Asay\u2010Davis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group Los Alamos National Laboratory  Los Alamos NM USA"}]},{"given":"Jean\u2010Baptiste","family":"Barre","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth System Science University of California Irvine  Irvine CA USA"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2961-0350","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Constantijn J.","family":"Berends","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht Utrecht University  Utrecht The Netherlands"}]},{"given":"Jorge","family":"Bernales","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht Utrecht University  Utrecht The Netherlands"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5898-5904","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Javier","family":"Blasco","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de F\u00edsica de la Tierra y Astrof\u00edsica Facultad de Ciencias F\u00edsicas Universidad Complutense de Madrid  Madrid Spain"},{"name":"Instituto de Geociencias Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient\u00edficas Universidad Complutense de Madrid  Madrid Spain"},{"name":"Laboratoire de Glaciologie Universit\u00e9 libre de Bruxelles  Brussels Belgium"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9435-7585","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Justine","family":"Caillet","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institut des G\u00e9osciences de l'Environnement Universit\u00e9 Grenoble Alpes\/CNRS\/INRAE\/IRD\/G\u2010INP  Grenoble France"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5759-2412","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"David M.","family":"Chandler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NORCE Norwegian Research Centre Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research  Bergen Norway"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2683-7434","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Violaine","family":"Coulon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratoire de Glaciologie Universit\u00e9 libre de Bruxelles  Brussels Belgium"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1349-6124","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Richard","family":"Cullather","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NASA Goddard Space Flight Center  Greenbelt MD USA"}]},{"given":"Christophe","family":"Dumas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'environnement LSCE\u2010IPSL CEA\u2010CNRS\u2010UVSQ Universit\u00e9 Paris\u2010Saclay  Paris France"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1404-4103","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Benjamin K.","family":"Galton\u2010Fenzi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Australian Antarctic Division  Kingston TAS Australia"},{"name":"Australian Antarctic Program Partnership Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania  Hobart TAS Australia"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3140-3307","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Julius","family":"Garbe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Leibniz Association  Potsdam Germany"},{"name":"Institute of Physics and Astronomy University of Potsdam  Potsdam Germany"}]},{"given":"Fabien","family":"Gillet\u2010Chaulet","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institut des G\u00e9osciences de l'Environnement Universit\u00e9 Grenoble Alpes\/CNRS\/INRAE\/IRD\/G\u2010INP  Grenoble France"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1582-3857","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rupert","family":"Gladstone","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Arctic Centre University of Lapland  Rovaniemi Finland"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5878-9599","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Heiko","family":"Goelzer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NORCE Norwegian Research Centre Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research  Bergen Norway"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7676-8970","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nicholas","family":"Golledge","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Antarctic Research Centre Victoria University of Wellington  Wellington New Zealand"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1341-4777","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ralf","family":"Greve","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Low Temperature Science Hokkaido University  Sapporo Japan"},{"name":"Arctic Research Center Hokkaido University  Sapporo Japan"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4236-5369","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"G. Hilmar","family":"Gudmundsson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Northumbria University  Newcastle UK"}]},{"given":"Holly Kyeore","family":"Han","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group Los Alamos National Laboratory  Los Alamos NM USA"},{"name":"Now at Earth Surface and Interior Group Jet Propulsion Laboratory  Pasadena CA USA"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3535-1540","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Trevor R.","family":"Hillebrand","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group Los Alamos National Laboratory  Los Alamos NM USA"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5076-0540","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Matthew J.","family":"Hoffman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group Los Alamos National Laboratory  Los Alamos NM USA"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1406-0525","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Philippe","family":"Huybrechts","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departement Geografie Earth System Science Vrije Universiteit Brussel  Brussels Belgium"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1372-2235","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nicolas C.","family":"Jourdain","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institut des G\u00e9osciences de l'Environnement Universit\u00e9 Grenoble Alpes\/CNRS\/INRAE\/IRD\/G\u2010INP  Grenoble France"}]},{"given":"Ann Kristin","family":"Klose","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Leibniz Association  Potsdam Germany"},{"name":"Institute of Physics and Astronomy University of Potsdam  Potsdam Germany"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1246-8781","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Petra M.","family":"Langebroek","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NORCE Norwegian Research Centre Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research  Bergen Norway"},{"name":"Department of Geosciences iC3: Centre for Ice, Cryosphere, Carbon and Climate UiT The Arctic University of Norway  Troms\u00f8 Norway"}]},{"given":"Gunter R.","family":"Leguy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research  Boulder CO USA"}]},{"given":"Daniel P.","family":"Lowry","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"GNS Science  Lower Hutt New Zealand"}]},{"given":"Pierre","family":"Mathiot","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institut des G\u00e9osciences de l'Environnement Universit\u00e9 Grenoble Alpes\/CNRS\/INRAE\/IRD\/G\u2010INP  Grenoble France"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0090-4750","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Marisa","family":"Montoya","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de F\u00edsica de la Tierra y Astrof\u00edsica Facultad de Ciencias F\u00edsicas Universidad Complutense de Madrid  Madrid Spain"},{"name":"Instituto de Geociencias Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient\u00edficas Universidad Complutense de Madrid  Madrid Spain"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5219-1310","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mathieu","family":"Morlighem","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences Dartmouth College  Hanover NH USA"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6328-5590","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sophie","family":"Nowicki","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geology University at Buffalo  Buffalo NY USA"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4805-5636","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Frank","family":"Pattyn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratoire de Glaciologie Universit\u00e9 libre de Bruxelles  Brussels Belgium"}]},{"given":"Antony J.","family":"Payne","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Liverpool  Liverpool UK"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6207-3043","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Aur\u00e9lien","family":"Quiquet","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'environnement LSCE\u2010IPSL CEA\u2010CNRS\u2010UVSQ Universit\u00e9 Paris\u2010Saclay  Paris France"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7625-040X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ronja","family":"Reese","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Leibniz Association  Potsdam Germany"},{"name":"Northumbria University  Newcastle UK"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3519-5293","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alexander","family":"Robinson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de F\u00edsica de la Tierra y Astrof\u00edsica Facultad de Ciencias F\u00edsicas Universidad Complutense de Madrid  Madrid Spain"},{"name":"Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research  Potsdam Germany"}]},{"given":"Leopekka","family":"Saraste","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CSC\u2010IT Center for Science  Espoo Finland"}]},{"given":"Erika G.","family":"Simon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NASA Goddard Space Flight Center  Greenbelt MD USA"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1614-2658","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sainan","family":"Sun","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Northumbria University  Newcastle UK"}]},{"given":"Jake P.","family":"Twarog","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Thayer School of Engineering Dartmouth College  Hanover NH USA"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7792-6173","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Luke D.","family":"Trusel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography Pennsylvania State University  University Park PA USA"}]},{"given":"Benoit","family":"Urruty","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institut des G\u00e9osciences de l'Environnement Universit\u00e9 Grenoble Alpes\/CNRS\/INRAE\/IRD\/G\u2010INP  Grenoble France"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1504-9520","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jonas","family":"Van Breedam","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departement Geografie Earth System Science Vrije Universiteit Brussel  Brussels Belgium"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2543-3892","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Roderik S. W.","family":"van de Wal","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht Utrecht University  Utrecht The Netherlands"},{"name":"Department of Physical Geography Utrecht University  Utrecht The Netherlands"}]},{"given":"Yu","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Australian Antarctic Program Partnership Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania  Hobart TAS Australia"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0368-1334","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Chen","family":"Zhao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Australian Antarctic Program Partnership Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania  Hobart TAS Australia"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3360-4401","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Thomas","family":"Zwinger","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CSC\u2010IT Center for Science  Espoo Finland"}]}],"member":"13","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,4]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_12_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/se\u20105\u2010569\u20102014"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201014\u20102819\u20102020"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41561\u2010020\u20100616\u2010z"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201013\u2010281\u20102019"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201014\u2010599\u20102020"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2004JD005667"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aao1447"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201014\u2010855\u20102020"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s1463\u20105003(02)00019\u20107"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558\u2010018\u20100326\u20103"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd\u20106\u2010687\u20102013"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd\u201014\u20102443\u20102021"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201011\u2010247\u20102017"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u20105\u2010569\u20102011"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3189\/2013JoG12J125"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/s002214300001621x"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201010\u2010497\u20102016"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201013\u2010177\u20102019"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3189\/s0022143000029804"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2008JF001179"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3189\/172756407782871567"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd\u20108\u20101613\u20102015"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201013\u20101349\u20102019"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201016\u20104931\u20102022"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201012\u20103097\u20102018"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/jog.2021.124"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/aog.2016.13"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2020JF006003"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/egusphere\u20102023\u20101532"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_31_1","volume-title":"The physics of glaciers","author":"Cuffey K. M.","year":"2010"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2019MS001916"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467\u2010022\u201032632\u20102"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature17145"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586\u2010021\u201003427\u20100"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.828"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-540-87921-3_11"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201015\u2010571\u20102021"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586\u2010021\u201003302\u2010y"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd\u20109\u20101937\u20102016"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3189\/s0260305500008302"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u20107\u2010375\u20102013"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd\u20106\u20101299\u20102013"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u20106\u20101561\u20102012"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3189\/172756400781820200"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4135\/9781412983419"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspa.1955.0066"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201014\u2010833\u20102020"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/cp\u201012\u20102195\u20102016"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201012\u20101433\u20102018"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201014\u20103071\u20102020"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3189\/002214311795306763"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_53_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u20105\u2010315\u20102011"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_54_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586\u2010019\u20100889\u20109"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_55_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature15706"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_56_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ngeo1012"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_57_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ncomms9798"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_58_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.polar.2015.12.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_59_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5281\/zenodo.3971232"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_60_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/jog.2023.41"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_61_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5281\/zenodo.3706624"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_62_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd\u201015\u20101355\u20102022"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_63_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2151\/jmsj.2016\u2010015"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_64_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2003JF000065"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_65_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-11-3747-2018"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_66_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloplacha.2008.04.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_67_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/bf00207423"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_68_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s0277\u20103791(01)00082\u20108"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_69_1","first-page":"514","volume-title":"Encyclopedia of the Antarctic","author":"Huybrechts P.","year":"2007"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_70_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3189\/172756400781820778"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_71_1","volume-title":"Climate change 2021: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change","author":"IPCC","year":"2021"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_72_1","first-page":"133","volume-title":"International symposium on the verification of cryospheric models","author":"Janssens I.","year":"2000"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_73_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2020GL091454"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_74_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201014\u20103111\u20102020"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_75_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eps1.2015.03.014"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_76_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3189\/2014J0G13J006"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_77_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u20102023\u2010156"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_78_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/grl.50256"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_79_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2151\/jmsj.2015\u2010001"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_80_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586\u2010020\u20102627\u20108"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_81_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aav7908"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_82_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2011JF002140"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_83_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201012\u201049\u20102018"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_84_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/essd\u20102\u2010247\u20102010"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_85_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd\u201012\u20102481\u20102019"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_86_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201015\u20103229\u20102021"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_87_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3189\/s0260305500013586"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_88_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate3180"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_89_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2011GL050713"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_90_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u20106\u2010273\u20102012"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_91_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/esd\u201011\u201035\u20102020"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_92_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/jc090ic01p01100"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_93_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201015\u2010633\u20102021"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_94_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd\u20102018\u2010151"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_95_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3189\/s0022143000029750"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_96_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s43247\u2010021\u201000289\u20102"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_97_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/jb094ib04p04071"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_98_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/93pa02200"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_99_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u20105\u2010727\u20102011"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_100_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2017GL075609"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_101_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/os\u201019\u20101595\u20102023"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_102_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1106888"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_103_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aba1981"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_104_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd\u201013\u20103571\u20102020"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_105_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2016GL067695"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_106_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41561\u2010019\u20100510\u20108"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_107_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2010GL043853"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_108_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jgrf.20125"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_109_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201013\u2010723\u20102019"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_110_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201015\u20103751\u20102021"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_111_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1904242116"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_112_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2019gl083826"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_113_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/rs9040364"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_114_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/rs4092753"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_115_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/rs12010134"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_116_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Nowicki S. &ISMIP6 Team. (2024a).ISMIP6 23rd century forcing datasets[Dataset].Zenodo.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.13135571","DOI":"10.5281\/zenodo.13135571"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_117_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Nowicki S. &ISMIP6 Team. (2024b).ISMIP6 23rd century projections[Dataset].Zenodo.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.13135599","DOI":"10.5281\/zenodo.13135599"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_118_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jgrf.20081"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_119_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jgrf.20076"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_120_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201014\u20102331\u20102020"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_121_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd\u20109\u20104521\u20102016"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_122_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5670\/oceanog.2018.216"},{"issue":"1216","key":"e_1_2_12_123_1","first-page":"113","article-title":"The distribution of stress and velocity in glaciers and ice\u2010sheets","volume":"239","author":"Nye J. F.","year":"1957","journal-title":"Proceedings of the Royal Society A"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_124_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/essd\u201015\u20101597\u20102023"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_125_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.abf7787"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_126_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201017\u20103409\u20102023"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_127_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0165\u2010232x(82)90010\u20106"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_128_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2002JB002329"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_129_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201011\u20101851\u20102017"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_130_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558\u2010018\u20100305\u20108"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_131_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2020GL091741"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_132_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201013\u20101043\u20102019"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_133_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2014jf003181"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_134_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/20859"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_135_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd\u20105\u20101273\u20102012"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_136_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u20106\u2010953\u20102012"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_137_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.palaeo.2019.109374"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_138_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epsl.2014.12.035"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_139_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201015\u20101031\u20102021"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_140_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd\u201011\u20105003\u20102018"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_141_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201012\u20101969\u20102018"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_142_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201017\u20103761\u20102023"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_143_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558\u2010017\u20100020\u2010x"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_144_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201014\u20103097\u20102020"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_145_1","volume-title":"Measures InSAR\u2010based Antarctica ice velocity map, version 2","author":"Rignot E.","year":"2017"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_146_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ngeo102"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_147_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1235798"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_148_1","volume-title":"IMBIE 2016","author":"Rignot E.","year":"2016"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_149_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1812883116"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_150_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2011GL046583"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_151_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2016GL068784"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_152_1","unstructured":"Ritz C.(1992).Un modele thermo\u2010mecanique d'evolution pour le bassin glaciaire antarctique Vostok\u2010Glacier Byrd: Sensibilite aux valeurs des parametres mal connus(Unpublished doctoral dissertation).Universit\u00e9 Joseph\u2010Fourier \u2010 Grenoble I."},{"key":"e_1_2_12_153_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature16147"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_154_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s003820050149"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_155_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2001JD900232"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_156_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd\u201013\u20102805\u20102020"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_157_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u20102021\u2010239"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_158_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3189\/S0260305500011915"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_159_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.polar.2018.12.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_160_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3189\/2012AoG60A042"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_161_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2004GL020670"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_162_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201012\u20102307\u20102018"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_163_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201012\u20103511\u20102018"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_164_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1256117"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_165_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspa.2004.1350"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_166_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2006JF000664"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_167_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/qjmam\/hbp025"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_168_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201012\u20103085\u20102018"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_169_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u20108\u20102075\u20102014"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_170_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3189\/2013JoG13J054"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_171_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2011GL047338"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_172_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u20108\u20101699\u20102014"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_173_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2017GL072910"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_174_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201014\u20103033\u20102020"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_175_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201013\u20101441\u20102019"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_176_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Seroussi H. &Pelle T.(2024).Dataset and scripts for the manuscript \u201cEvolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the next three centuries from an ISMIP6 model ensemble\u201d[Dataset].Zenodo.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.10528582","DOI":"10.5281\/zenodo.10528582"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_177_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201017\u20105197\u20102023"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_178_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epsl.2004.04.011"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_179_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2019GL082182"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_180_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586\u2010018\u20100179\u2010y"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_181_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5281\/zenodo.6872648"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_182_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aap9467"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_183_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aaz5845"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_184_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/jog.2020.67"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_185_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/esd\u201012\u2010253\u20102021"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_186_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.polar.2021.100642"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_187_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0033\u20105894(78)90098\u20104"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_188_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/NGEO2563"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_189_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2013GL058138"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_190_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd\u201014\u20106373\u20102021"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_191_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/cp\u201019\u20102551\u20102023"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_192_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2023MS003899"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_193_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3189\/2014JoG14J051"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_194_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558\u2010022\u201001577\u20101"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_195_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u201012\u20101479\u20102018"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_196_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511612336"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_197_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3189\/s0022143000024709"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_198_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/jz066i011p03783"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_199_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3189\/s0022143000023327"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_200_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/tc\u20105\u2010715\u20102011"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_201_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aaz1183"}],"container-title":["Earth's Future"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1029\/2024EF004561","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,4]],"date-time":"2024-09-04T13:01:25Z","timestamp":1725454885000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1029\/2024EF004561"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,9]]},"references-count":200,"journal-issue":{"issue":"9","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,9]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1029\/2024EF004561"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2024ef004561","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["2328-4277","2328-4277"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2328-4277","type":"print"},{"value":"2328-4277","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,9]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2024-02-13","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-07-03","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-09-04","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e2024EF004561"}}