{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,29]],"date-time":"2026-04-29T00:08:12Z","timestamp":1777421292209,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,30]],"date-time":"2021-06-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1625011200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,30]],"date-time":"2021-06-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1625011200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000092","name":"U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | NIH | U.S. National Library of Medicine","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["3R01LM011965-03S1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["3R01LM011965-03S1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000092","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000092","name":"U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | NIH | U.S. National Library of Medicine","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["3R01LM011965-03S1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["3R01LM011965-03S1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000092","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000092","name":"U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | NIH | U.S. National Library of Medicine","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["3R01LM011965-03S1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["3R01LM011965-03S1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000092","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100007229","name":"Harvard University","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100007229","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | NIH | U.S. National Library of Medicine"},{"name":"U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | NIH | U.S. National Library of Medicine"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["npj Digit. Med."],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>In the United States, cocaine use and mortality have surged in the past 5 years. Considering cocaine\u2019s reputation as a fashionable social drug, the rise of cocaine mentions in popular music may provide a signal of epidemiological trends of cocaine use. We characterized the relationship between mentions of cocaine in song lyrics and incidence of cocaine use and mortality in the US. Incidence of cocaine use from 2002 to 2017 was obtained from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health and cocaine overdose mortality rate from 2000 to 2017 was obtained from the Centers for Disease Control. Distributed lag models were fit using ordinary least squares on the first difference to identify associations between changes in cocaine lyric mentions and changes in incidence of cocaine use and mortality. A total of 5955 song lyrics with cocaine mentions were obtained from Lyrics.com. Cocaine mentions in song lyrics were stable from 2000 to 2010 then increased by 190% from 2010 to 2017. The first-order distributed lag model estimated that a 0.01 increase in mentions of cocaine in song lyrics is associated with an 11% increase in incidence of cocaine use within the same year and a 14% increase in cocaine mortality with a 2-year lag. Lag-times were confirmed with cross-correlation analyses and the association remained after accounting for street pricing of cocaine. Mentions of cocaine in song lyrics are associated with the rise of incidence of cocaine use and cocaine overdose mortality. Popular music trends are a potentially valuable tool for understanding cocaine epidemiology trends.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41746-021-00448-x","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,30]],"date-time":"2021-06-30T10:04:14Z","timestamp":1625047454000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Estimating the incidence of cocaine use and mortality with music lyrics about cocaine"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"4","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3203-1322","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yulin","family":"Hswen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Amanda","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8568-5317","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"John S.","family":"Brownstein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"448_CR1","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Multiple Cause of Death 1999\u20132017 on CDC WONDER Online Database, https:\/\/wonder.cdc.gov\/mcd.html (2018). Accessed 1 Oct 2019."},{"key":"448_CR2","unstructured":"Jonnes, J. Hep-cats, narcs, and pipe dreams: A history of America\u2019s romance with illegal drugs. (Scribner, 1996)."},{"key":"448_CR3","unstructured":"Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. Results from the 2017 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, https:\/\/www.samhsa.gov\/data\/report\/2017-nsduh-annual-national-report (2018). Accessed 15 Nov 2019."},{"key":"448_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Stimmel, B. Alcohol and Drug Abuse in the Affluent. (The Haworth Press, 1984).","DOI":"10.1300\/J251v04n02_01"},{"key":"448_CR5","unstructured":"Marion, N. E., & Oliver, W. M. (Eds.) Drugs in American Society: An Encyclopedia of History, Politics, Culture, and the Law . (Vol. 3. ABC-CLIO. Chicago, 2014)."},{"key":"448_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1047","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(07)60464-4","volume":"369","author":"D Nutt","year":"2007","unstructured":"Nutt, D., King, L. A., Saulsbury, W. & Blakemore, C. Development of a rational scale to assess the harm of drugs of potential misuse. Lancet 369, 1047\u20131053 (2007).","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"448_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1080\/10550880802122554","volume":"27","author":"Y-I Hser","year":"2008","unstructured":"Hser, Y.-I., Huang, D., Brecht, M.-L., Li, L. & Evans, E. Contrasting trajectories of heroin, cocaine, and methamphetamine use. J. Addict. Dis. 27, 13\u201321 (2008).","journal-title":"J. Addict. Dis."},{"key":"448_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"167","DOI":"10.1080\/16066350801993987","volume":"16","author":"D Herd","year":"2008","unstructured":"Herd, D. Changes in drug use prevalence in rap music songs, 1979\u20131997. Addict. Res. Theory 16, 167\u2013180 (2008).","journal-title":"Addict. Res. Theory"},{"key":"448_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"169","DOI":"10.1001\/archpediatrics.2007.27","volume":"162","author":"BA Primack","year":"2008","unstructured":"Primack, B. A., Dalton, M. A., Carroll, M. V., Agarwal, A. A. & Fine, M. J. Content analysis of tobacco, alcohol, and other drugs in popular music. Arch. Pediatrics Adolesc. Med. 162, 169\u2013175 (2008).","journal-title":"Arch. Pediatrics Adolesc. Med."},{"key":"448_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"81","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jadohealth.2004.02.034","volume":"37","author":"EL Gruber","year":"2005","unstructured":"Gruber, E. L., Thau, H. M., Hill, D. L., Fisher, D. A. & Grube, J. W. Alcohol, tobacco and illicit substances in music videos: a content analysis of prevalence and genre. J. Adolesc. Health 37, 81\u201383 (2005).","journal-title":"J. Adolesc. Health"},{"key":"448_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"194","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1475-682X.2001.tb01108.x","volume":"71","author":"J Markert","year":"2001","unstructured":"Markert, J. Sing a song of drug Use-Abuse: Four decades of drug lyrics in popular Music\u2013From the sixties through the nineties. Sociological Inq. 71, 194\u2013220 (2001).","journal-title":"Sociological Inq."},{"key":"448_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"121","DOI":"10.3109\/10826084.2012.637433","volume":"47","author":"P Christenson","year":"2012","unstructured":"Christenson, P., Roberts, D. F. & Bjork, N. Booze, drugs, and pop music: trends in substance portrayals in the Billboard top 100\u20141968\u20132008. Subst. Use Misuse 47, 121\u2013129 (2012).","journal-title":"Subst. Use Misuse"},{"key":"448_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"505","DOI":"10.1542\/peds.110.3.505","volume":"110","author":"PP Gidwani","year":"2002","unstructured":"Gidwani, P. P., Sobol, A., DeJong, W., Perrin, J. M. & Gortmaker, S. L. Television viewing and initiation of smoking among youth. Pediatrics 110, 505\u2013508 (2002).","journal-title":"Pediatrics"},{"key":"448_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"281","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(03)13970-0","volume":"362","author":"MA Dalton","year":"2003","unstructured":"Dalton, M. A. et al. Effect of viewing smoking in movies on adolescent smoking initiation: a cohort study. Lancet 362, 281\u2013285 (2003).","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"448_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"339","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amepre.2012.11.037","volume":"44","author":"M Morgenstern","year":"2013","unstructured":"Morgenstern, M. et al. Smoking in movies and adolescent smoking initiation: longitudinal study in six European countries. Am. J. Preven. Med. 44, 339\u2013344 (2013).","journal-title":"Am. J. Preven. Med."},{"key":"448_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1737","DOI":"10.1111\/acer.12408","volume":"38","author":"BA Primack","year":"2014","unstructured":"Primack, B. A., McClure, A. C., Li, Z. & Sargent, J. D. Receptivity to and recall of alcohol brand appearances in US popular music and alcohol-related behaviors. Alcohol.: Clin. Exp. Res. 38, 1737\u20131744 (2014).","journal-title":"Alcohol.: Clin. Exp. Res."},{"key":"448_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"515","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1360-0443.2009.02801.x","volume":"105","author":"BA Primack","year":"2010","unstructured":"Primack, B. A., Douglas, E. L. & Kraemer, K. L. Exposure to cannabis in popular music and cannabis use among adolescents. Addiction 105, 515\u2013523 (2010).","journal-title":"Addiction"},{"key":"448_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"415","DOI":"10.2190\/NXJ6-U60J-XTY0-09MP","volume":"33","author":"RJ Peters Jr","year":"2003","unstructured":"Peters, R. J. Jr et al. Beliefs and social norms about codeine and promethazine hydrochloride cough syrup (CPHCS) onset and perceived addiction among urban Houstonian adolescents: an addiction trend in the city of lean. J. Drug Educ. 33, 415\u2013425 (2003).","journal-title":"J. Drug Educ."},{"key":"448_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"115","DOI":"10.1525\/jpms.2018.200006","volume":"30","author":"R Lin","year":"2018","unstructured":"Lin, R. & Rasmussen, E. Why don\u2019t we get drunk and screw? a content analysis of women, sex and alcohol in country music. j. Pop. Music Stud. 30, 115\u2013128 (2018).","journal-title":"Pop. Music Stud."},{"key":"448_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"207","DOI":"10.3109\/16066359.2012.704651","volume":"21","author":"PC Hall","year":"2013","unstructured":"Hall, P. C., West, J. H. & Neeley, S. Alcohol, tobacco, and other drug references in lyrics of popular music from 1959 to 2009. Addiction Res. Theory 21, 207\u2013215 (2013).","journal-title":"Addiction Res. Theory"},{"key":"448_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"141","DOI":"10.3109\/16066359409109139","volume":"2","author":"A Green","year":"1994","unstructured":"Green, A., Pickering, H., Foster, R., Power, R. & Stimson, G. V. Who uses cocaine? Social profiles of cocaine users. Addiction Res. 2, 141\u2013154 (1994).","journal-title":"Addiction Res."},{"key":"448_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"460","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jadohealth.2013.05.005","volume":"53","author":"JS Tucker","year":"2013","unstructured":"Tucker, J. S., Miles, J. N. & D\u2019Amico, E. J. Cross-lagged associations between substance use-related media exposure and alcohol use during middle school. J. Adolesc. Health 53, 460\u2013464 (2013).","journal-title":"J. Adolesc. Health"},{"key":"448_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1069","DOI":"10.3109\/10826089409047928","volume":"29","author":"NS Miller","year":"1994","unstructured":"Miller, N. S. & Gold, M. S. Criminal activity and crack addiction. Int. J. Addict. 29, 1069\u20131078 (1994).","journal-title":"Int. J. Addict."},{"key":"448_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"893","DOI":"10.1136\/jech.57.11.893","volume":"57","author":"K Petronis","year":"2003","unstructured":"Petronis, K. & Anthony, J. A different kind of contextual effect: geographical clustering of cocaine incidence in the USA. J. Epidemiol. Community Health 57, 893\u2013900 (2003).","journal-title":"J. Epidemiol. Community Health"},{"key":"448_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1446","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.91.9.1446","volume":"91","author":"JP Caulkins","year":"2001","unstructured":"Caulkins, J. P. Drug prices and emergency department mentions for cocaine and heroin. Am. J. Public Health 91, 1446\u20131448 (2001).","journal-title":"Am. J. Public Health"},{"key":"448_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Buntain, C. & Golbeck, J. This is your Twitter on drugs: Any questions? Proceedings of the 24th international conference on World Wide Web. 777\u2013782 https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1145\/2740908.2742469 (2014).","DOI":"10.1145\/2740908.2742469"},{"key":"448_CR27","unstructured":"Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. Clinical Drug Testing in Primary Care. (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, Center for Substance Abuse Treatment, 2012)."},{"key":"448_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"130","DOI":"10.1037\/rev0000046","volume":"124","author":"M Keramati","year":"2017","unstructured":"Keramati, M., Durand, A., Girardeau, P., Gutkin, B. & Ahmed, S. H. Cocaine addiction as a homeostatic reinforcement learning disorder. Psychological Rev. 124, 130\u2013153 (2017).","journal-title":"Psychological Rev."},{"key":"448_CR29","first-page":"939","volume":"52","author":"SL Dogan","year":"2000","unstructured":"Dogan, S. L. Is Napster a VCR\u2013The Implications of Sony for Napster and Other Internet Technologies. Hastings Law J. 52, 939\u2013959 (2000).","journal-title":"Hastings Law J."},{"key":"448_CR30","unstructured":"Ena, A. R. What Other Businesses Could Have Learnt From It, And The Convergence (or Not) of Spotify and Netflix, https:\/\/medium.com\/@alvarorebolloena\/digitaltransformationinthemusicbusiness-e7e92ced125 (2019). Accessed 15 Aug 2020."},{"key":"448_CR31","unstructured":"Perez, S. Spotify launches an app for artists with real-time streaming data, audience demographics, https:\/\/techcrunch.com\/2017\/10\/12\/spotify-launches-an-app-for-artists-with-real-time-streaming-data-audience-demographics\/ (2017). Accessed 15 Aug 2020."},{"key":"448_CR32","unstructured":"Media Entertainment Tech Outlook. How Streaming Technology is Changing the Music Industry, https:\/\/www.mediaentertainmenttechoutlook.com\/news\/how-technology-is-transforming-online-entertainment\u2013nwid-629.html (2019). Accessed 15 Aug 2020."},{"key":"448_CR33","first-page":"1","volume":"67","author":"H Hedegaard","year":"2018","unstructured":"Hedegaard, H., Bastian, B. A., Trinidad, J. P., Spencer, M. & Warner, M. Drugs most frequently involved in drug overdose deaths: United States, 2011-2016. Natl Vital. Stat. Rep. 67, 1\u201314 (2018).","journal-title":"Natl Vital. Stat. Rep."},{"key":"448_CR34","unstructured":"U.S. Census Bureau. National Population Totals and Components of Change, https:\/\/www.census.gov\/data\/tables\/time-series\/demo\/popest\/2010s-national-total.html-par_textimage_2011805803 (2018). Accessed 15 Nov 2019."},{"key":"448_CR35","unstructured":"Urban Dictionary. Cocaine, https:\/\/www.urbandictionary.com\/ (2019). Accessed 1 Mar 2019."},{"key":"448_CR36","unstructured":"Drug Enforcement Administration. Slang Terms and Code Words: A Reference for Law Enforcement Personnel. (Drug Enforcement Administration, 2018)."},{"key":"448_CR37","unstructured":"Lyrics, The Web\u2019s Largest Resource for Music, Songs & Lyrics. https:\/\/www.lyrics.com (2019). Accessed 1 Mar 2019."},{"key":"448_CR38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"83","DOI":"10.1002\/j.2164-4683.1997.tb00376.x","volume":"36","author":"DR Ostlund","year":"1997","unstructured":"Ostlund, D. R. & Kinnier, R. T. Values of youth: Messages from the most popular songs of four decades. J. Humanist. Educ. Dev. 36, 83\u201391 (1997).-","journal-title":"J. Humanist. Educ. Dev."},{"key":"448_CR39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"194","DOI":"10.1177\/0305735617748205","volume":"47","author":"PG Christenson","year":"2019","unstructured":"Christenson, P. G., de Haan-Rietdijk, S., Roberts, D. F. & ter Bogt, T. F. What has America been singing about? Trends in themes in the US top-40 songs: 1960\u20132010. Psychol. Music 47, 194\u2013212 (2019).","journal-title":"Psychol. Music"},{"key":"448_CR40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1130","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.2017.303767","volume":"107","author":"Y Hswen","year":"2017","unstructured":"Hswen, Y., Brownstein, J. S., Liu, J. & Hawkins, J. B. Use of a digital health application for influenza surveillance in China. Am. J. Public Health 107, 1130\u20131136 (2017).","journal-title":"Am. J. Public Health"},{"key":"448_CR41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"320","DOI":"10.1097\/00001648-200005000-00016","volume":"11","author":"J Schwartz","year":"2000","unstructured":"Schwartz, J. The distributed lag between air pollution and daily deaths. Epidemiology 11, 320\u2013326 (2000).","journal-title":"Epidemiology"},{"key":"448_CR42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"178","DOI":"10.2307\/1911894","volume":"33","author":"S Almon","year":"1965","unstructured":"Almon, S. The distributed lag between capital appropriations and expenditures. Econometrica: J. Econom. Soc. 33, 178\u2013196 (1965).","journal-title":"Econometrica: J. Econom. Soc."},{"key":"448_CR43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"881","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.5963","volume":"33","author":"A Gasparrini","year":"2014","unstructured":"Gasparrini, A. Modeling exposure\u2013lag\u2013response associations with distributed lag non-linear models. Stat. Med. 33, 881\u2013899 (2014).","journal-title":"Stat. Med."},{"key":"448_CR44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"57","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.publhealth.26.021304.144517","volume":"27","author":"SL Zeger","year":"2006","unstructured":"Zeger, S. L., Irizarry, R. & Peng, R. D. On time series analysis of public health and biomedical data. Annu. Rev. Public Health 27, 57\u201379 (2006).","journal-title":"Annu. Rev. Public Health"},{"key":"448_CR45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"211","DOI":"10.1007\/s10654-019-00494-6","volume":"34","author":"TJ VanderWeele","year":"2019","unstructured":"VanderWeele, T. J. Principles of confounder selection. Eur. J. Epidemiol. 34, 211\u2013219 (2019).","journal-title":"Eur. J. Epidemiol."},{"key":"448_CR46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Seabold, S. & Perktold, J. Statsmodels: Econometric and statistical modeling with python. Proceedings of the 9th Python in Science Conference. 92\u201396 http:\/\/conference.scipy.org\/proceedings\/scipy2010\/pdfs\/seabold.pdf (2010).","DOI":"10.25080\/Majora-92bf1922-011"}],"container-title":["npj Digital Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41746-021-00448-x.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41746-021-00448-x","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41746-021-00448-x.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,3]],"date-time":"2022-12-03T18:54:35Z","timestamp":1670093675000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41746-021-00448-x"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,30]]},"references-count":46,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,12]]}},"alternative-id":["448"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41746-021-00448-x","relation":{},"ISSN":["2398-6352"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2398-6352","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,30]]},"assertion":[{"value":"14 December 2019","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"16 February 2021","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"30 June 2021","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"The authors declare no competing interests.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"100"}}