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Med."],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Digital interventions can change behaviors like alcohol use, but effectiveness varies widely across individuals. Accurately identifying non-responders\u2014i.e., those least (vs. most) likely to change their behavior\u2014before intervention delivery is difficult. Individual intervention effectiveness predictions from prior studies perform only slightly above chance (e.g., AUC \u22480.60; balanced accuracy \u22480.60). We present a novel approach integrating multimodal data across theory-driven domains\u2014including psychological assessments, social network data, and neural responses to alcohol cues\u2014to make ex-ante predictions about the effectiveness of smartphone-delivered alcohol interventions targeting psychological distancing in young adults (Study 1:\n                    <jats:italic>N<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2009=\u200967; Study 2:\n                    <jats:italic>N<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2009=\u2009114). Demonstrating the feasibility of this approach, random forest models predicted individual differences in intervention effectiveness (Study 1: balanced accuracy = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.69\u20130.73,\n                    <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2009=\u2009.020; AUC\u2009=\u20090.87, 95% CI: 0.85\u20130.88,\n                    <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2009=\u2009.020) and replicated in a an external test sample (Study 2, balanced accuracy\u2009=\u20090.68; AUC\u2009=\u20090.68, 95% CI: 0.54\u20130.82), meeting clinical-utility thresholds from prior digital health studies (balanced accuracy\u2009=\u20090.67; correctly classifying (non)responders 67% of the time). Interventions were most effective for participants who perceived their peers as moderate but frequent drinkers. Peer drinking perceptions may serve as a low-burden indicator to support early identification of non-responders in preventive alcohol interventions among young adults. Future work can apply and extend the multimodal approach developed here for adaptive tailoring of digital behavior change interventions in real-world settings.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41746-026-02356-4","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,27]],"date-time":"2026-01-27T08:17:47Z","timestamp":1769501867000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Predicting individual differences in digital alcohol intervention effectiveness through multimodal data"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"9","author":[{"given":"Magdalena","family":"Fuchs","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zachary M.","family":"Boyd","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alice","family":"Schwarze","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Danielle","family":"Cosme","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ovidia","family":"Stanoi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yoona","family":"Kang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tobias","family":"Kowatsch","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Florian von","family":"Wangenheim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dani S.","family":"Bassett","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kevin N.","family":"Ochsner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David M.","family":"Lydon-Staley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Emily B.","family":"Falk","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Peter J.","family":"Mucha","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mia","family":"Jovanova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"2356_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1764","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(22)02123-7","volume":"400","author":"J Manthey","year":"2022","unstructured":"Manthey, J., Shield, K. & Rehm, J. 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