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Med."],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We evaluated the performance of 12-channel ECG in predicting sudden cardiac death across different time intervals using a retrospective data set of 17,625 high-risk cardiac patients who underwent coronary angiography (2007\u20132018) with follow-up data until 2022. Extreme gradient boosting using 12SL Marquette software-derived parameters from digital ECG recording was used to train and validate models using a random 80\/20 split. Model performance was evaluated in both unbalanced and risk-factor-balanced case-control sets. Using single ECG, both long-term (from baseline ECG) and short-term predictions (from the last recorded ECG) achieved a modest area under the curve (AUC) of 0.68 in the unbalanced validation and 0.59\/0.63 in the balanced validation (long-\/short-term). Adding clinical risk factor data resulted in AUC 0.70\/0.71 (unbalanced) and 0.64\/0.62 (balanced) for long- and short-term prediction. Adding data of observed ECG changes during follow-up for short-term prediction resulted in the best model performance (0.72\/0.66; unbalanced\/balanced).<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41746-026-02456-1","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,5]],"date-time":"2026-03-05T10:18:08Z","timestamp":1772705888000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Performance of the 12-lead ECG in predicting short- and long-term risk of sudden cardiac death"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"9","author":[{"given":"Jussi A.","family":"Hernesniemi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Teemu","family":"Pukkila","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jani","family":"Rankinen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Antti","family":"Kallonen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mikko","family":"Uimonen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Leo-Pekka","family":"Lyytik\u00e4inen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kjell","family":"Nikus","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Esa","family":"R\u00e4s\u00e4nen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Juho","family":"Tynkkynen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,5]]},"reference":[{"key":"2456_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"216","DOI":"10.1038\/nrcardio.2010.3","volume":"7","author":"AS Adabag","year":"2010","unstructured":"Adabag, A. 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