{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,26]],"date-time":"2026-02-26T20:08:49Z","timestamp":1772136529542,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":21,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,28]],"date-time":"2022-03-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1648425600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,28]],"date-time":"2022-03-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1648425600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Nat Comput Sci"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Forecasting of severe acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) after transplantation is a challenging \u2018large\n                    <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                    , small\n                    <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2019 problem that suffers from nonuniform data sampling. We propose a dynamic probabilistic algorithm, daGOAT, that accommodates sampling heterogeneity, integrates multidimensional clinical data and continuously updates the daily risk score for severe aGVHD onset within a two-week moving window. In the studied cohorts, the cross-validated area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of daGOAT rose steadily after transplantation and peaked at \u22650.78 in both the adult and pediatric cohorts, outperforming the two-biomarker MAGIC score, three-biomarker Ann Arbor score, peri-transplantation features-based models and XGBoost. Simulation experiments indicated that the daGOAT algorithm is well suited for short time-series scenarios where the underlying process for event generation is smooth, multidimensional and where there are frequent and irregular data missing. daGOAT\u2019s broader utility was demonstrated by performance testing on a remotely different task, that is, prediction of imminent human postural change based on smartphone inertial sensor time-series data.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s43588-022-00213-4","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,28]],"date-time":"2022-03-28T12:02:52Z","timestamp":1648468972000},"page":"153-159","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":17,"title":["Dynamic forecasting of severe acute graft-versus-host disease after transplantation"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"2","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4974-2382","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xueou","family":"Liu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yigeng","family":"Cao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ye","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xiaowen","family":"Gong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yahui","family":"Feng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4121-7313","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yao","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mingyang","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mengxuan","family":"Cui","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Wenwen","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Luyang","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ningning","family":"Zhao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xiaoqiang","family":"Song","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xuetong","family":"Zheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xia","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Qiujin","family":"Shen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Song","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Zhen","family":"Song","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Linfeng","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sizhou","family":"Feng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mingzhe","family":"Han","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2572-6495","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xiaofan","family":"Zhu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3937-5518","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Erlie","family":"Jiang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3691-4931","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Junren","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"213_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"958","DOI":"10.3324\/haematol.2016.156356","volume":"102","author":"HJ Khoury","year":"2017","unstructured":"Khoury, H. 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To avoid biased healthcare or research decisions, patients who received HSCT later than 1 December 2020 were not included in this study until after 7 February 2021. All the patients included in this study signed an informed consent form that permitted their biological samples or data to be utilized for research.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethics declarations"}}]}}