{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,5]],"date-time":"2026-10-05T21:20:23Z","timestamp":1791235223830,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":30,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"7024","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2005,1,1]],"date-time":"2005-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1104537600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/www.springer.com\/tdm"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Nature"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2005,1]]},"DOI":"10.1038\/nature03072","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2005,1,30]],"date-time":"2005-01-30T18:17:28Z","timestamp":1107109048000},"page":"417-421","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":214,"title":["Host immunity and synchronized epidemics of syphilis across the United States"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"433","author":[{"given":"Nicholas C.","family":"Grassly","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Christophe","family":"Fraser","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Geoffrey P.","family":"Garnett","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","reference":[{"key":"BFnature03072_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"638","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1062226","volume":"293","author":"ON Bjornstad","year":"2001","unstructured":"Bjornstad, O. N. & Grenfell, B. T. Noisy clockwork: Time series analysis of population fluctuations in animals. Science 293, 638\u2013643 (2001)","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1766","DOI":"10.1126\/science.289.5485.1766","volume":"289","author":"M Pascual","year":"2000","unstructured":"Pascual, M., Rodo, X., Ellner, S. P., Colwell, R. & Bouma, M. J. Cholera dynamics and el Nino-Southern Oscillation. Science 289, 1766\u20131769 (2000)","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"16","DOI":"10.1097\/00007435-199601000-00006","volume":"23","author":"AK Nakashima","year":"1996","unstructured":"Nakashima, A. K., Rolfs, R. T., Flock, M. L., Kilmarx, P. & Greenspan, J. R. Epidemiology of syphilis in the United States, 1941\u20131993. Sex. Transm. Dis. 23, 16\u201323 (1996)","journal-title":"Sex. Transm. Dis."},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5605","DOI":"10.1128\/IAI.71.10.5605-5612.2003","volume":"71","author":"CA Morgan","year":"2003","unstructured":"Morgan, C. A., Lukehart, S. A. & Van Voorhis, W. C. Protection against syphilis correlates with specificity of antibodies to the variable regions of Treponema pallidum repeat protein K. Infect. Immun. 71, 5605\u20135612 (2003)","journal-title":"Infect. Immun."},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"353","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a009820","volume":"149","author":"KK Fox","year":"1999","unstructured":"Fox, K. K. et al. Longitudinal evaluation of serovar-specific immunity to Neisseria gonorrhoeae . Am. J. Epidemiol. 149, 353\u2013358 (1999)","journal-title":"Am. J. Epidemiol."},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"555","DOI":"10.1097\/00007435-200110000-00001","volume":"28","author":"KA Schmidt","year":"2001","unstructured":"Schmidt, K. A. et al. Experimental gonococcal urethritis and reinfection with homologous gonococci in male volunteers. Sex. Transm. Dis. 28, 555\u2013564 (2001)","journal-title":"Sex. Transm. Dis."},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.4324\/9780203491683","volume-title":"The Analysis of Time Series: an Introduction","author":"C Chatfield","year":"2003","unstructured":"Chatfield, C. The Analysis of Time Series: an Introduction 6th edn (Chapman & Hall\/CRC, Boca Raton, 2003)"},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"716","DOI":"10.1038\/414716a","volume":"414","author":"BT Grenfell","year":"2001","unstructured":"Grenfell, B. T., Bjornstad, O. N. & Kappey, J. Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics. Nature 414, 716\u2013723 (2001)","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-662-07544-9","volume-title":"Gonorrhea Transmission Dynamics and Control in Lecture Notes Biomath","author":"HW Hethcote","year":"1984","unstructured":"Hethcote, H. W. & Yorke, J. A. Gonorrhea Transmission Dynamics and Control in Lecture Notes Biomath no. 56 (Springer, Berlin, 1984)"},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"185","DOI":"10.1097\/00007435-199704000-00002","volume":"24","author":"GP Garnett","year":"1997","unstructured":"Garnett, G. P., Aral, S. O., Hoyle, D. V., Cates, W. & Anderson, R. M. The natural history of syphilis: Implications for the transmission dynamics and control of infection. Sex. Transm. Dis. 24, 185\u2013200 (1997)","journal-title":"Sex. Transm. Dis."},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"787","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.1999.0431","volume":"354","author":"GP Garnett","year":"1999","unstructured":"Garnett, G. P., Mertz, K. J., Finelli, L., Levine, W. C. & St Louis, M. E. The transmission dynamics of gonorrhoea: modelling the reported behaviour of infected patients from Newark, New Jersey. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 354, 787\u2013797 (1999)","journal-title":"Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B"},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"443","DOI":"10.1097\/00007435-199709000-00001","volume":"24","author":"EW Hook","year":"1997","unstructured":"Hook, E. W. et al. Delayed presentation to clinics for sexually transmitted diseases by symptomatic patients\u2014A potential contributor to continuing STD morbidity. Sex. Transm. Dis. 24, 443\u2013448 (1997)","journal-title":"Sex. Transm. Dis."},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"59","DOI":"10.1097\/00124784-200205000-00009","volume":"8","author":"JB Greenberg","year":"2002","unstructured":"Greenberg, J. B. et al. Learning from clients: An opportunity for sexually transmitted disease programs. J. Public Health Manage Pract. 8, 59\u201368 (2002)","journal-title":"J. Public Health Manage Pract."},{"issue":"suppl. 2","key":"BFnature03072_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S201","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/174.Supplement_2.S201","volume":"174","author":"JN Wasserheit","year":"1996","unstructured":"Wasserheit, J. N. & Aral, S. O. The dynamic topology of sexually transmitted disease epidemics: implications for prevention strategies. J. Infect. Dis. 174(suppl. 2), S201\u2013S213 (1996)","journal-title":"J. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1104","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.85.8_Pt_1.1104","volume":"85","author":"FF Hamers","year":"1995","unstructured":"Hamers, F. F. et al. Syphilis and Gonorrhea in Miami\u2014Similar clustering, different trends. Am. J. Public Health 85, 1104\u20131108 (1995)","journal-title":"Am. J. Public Health"},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR16","volume-title":"The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases and its Applications","author":"NTJ Bailey","year":"1975","unstructured":"Bailey, N. T. J. The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases and its Applications 2nd edn (Griffin, London, 1975)"},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1006\/jtbi.1996.0042","volume":"179","author":"AL Lloyd","year":"1996","unstructured":"Lloyd, A. L. & May, R. M. Spatial heterogeneity in epidemic models. J. Theor. Biol. 179, 1\u201311 (1996)","journal-title":"J. Theor. Biol."},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR18","volume-title":"National Transportation Statistics 2003","author":"U.S. Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics","year":"2003","unstructured":"U.S. Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics. National Transportation Statistics 2003 (U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington DC, 2003)"},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511549489","volume-title":"Deciphering Global Epidemics: Analytical Approaches to the Disease Records of World Cities, 1888\u20131912","author":"AD Cliff","year":"1998","unstructured":"Cliff, A. D., Haggett, P. & Smallman-Raynor, M. in Deciphering Global Epidemics: Analytical Approaches to the Disease Records of World Cities, 1888\u20131912 (eds Baker, A. R. H., Dennis, R. & Holdsworth, D.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1998)"},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"935","DOI":"10.1016\/S0277-9536(96)00197-9","volume":"44","author":"R Wallace","year":"1997","unstructured":"Wallace, R., Huang, Y. S., Gould, P. & Wallace, D. The hierarchical diffusion of AIDS and violent crime among US metropolitan regions: Inner-city decay, stochastic resonance and reversal of the mortality transition. Soc. Sci. Med. 44, 935\u2013947 (1997)","journal-title":"Soc. Sci. Med."},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"20","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1461-0248.2002.00268.x","volume":"5","author":"MJ Keeling","year":"2002","unstructured":"Keeling, M. J. & Rohani, P. Estimating spatial coupling in epidemiological systems: a mechanistic approach. Ecol. Lett. 5, 20\u201329 (2002)","journal-title":"Ecol. Lett."},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2003.09.003","volume":"188","author":"AL Lloyd","year":"2004","unstructured":"Lloyd, A. L. & Jansen, V. A. A. Spatiotemporal dynamics of epidemics: synchrony in metapopulation models. Math. Biosci. 188, 1\u201316 (2004)","journal-title":"Math. Biosci."},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"9","DOI":"10.1097\/00007435-199601000-00005","volume":"23","author":"SO Aral","year":"1996","unstructured":"Aral, S. O. The social context of syphilis persistence in the southeastern United States. Sex. Transm. Dis. 23, 9\u201315 (1996)","journal-title":"Sex. Transm. Dis."},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2909","DOI":"10.1103\/PhysRevLett.86.2909","volume":"86","author":"M Kuperman","year":"2001","unstructured":"Kuperman, M. & Abramson, G. Small world effect in an epidemiological model. Phys. Rev. Lett. 86, 2909\u20132912 (2001)","journal-title":"Phys. Rev. Lett."},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"419","DOI":"10.1097\/00007435-200305000-00008","volume":"30","author":"HW Chesson","year":"2003","unstructured":"Chesson, H. W., Dee, T. S. & Aral, S. O. AIDS mortality may have contributed to the decline in syphilis rates in the United States in the 1990s. Sex. Transm. Dis. 30, 419\u2013424 (2003)","journal-title":"Sex. Transm. Dis."},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"285","DOI":"10.1097\/00007435-200205000-00006","volume":"29","author":"RH Kahn","year":"2002","unstructured":"Kahn, R. H., Heffelfinger, J. D. & Berman, S. M. Syphilis outbreaks among men who have sex with men\u2014A public health trend of concern. Sex. Transm. Dis. 29, 285\u2013287 (2002)","journal-title":"Sex. Transm. Dis."},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"883","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.91.6.883","volume":"91","author":"RJ Wolitski","year":"2001","unstructured":"Wolitski, R. J., Valdiserri, R. O., Denning, P. H. & Levine, W. C. Are we headed for a resurgence of the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men? Am. J. Public Health 91, 883\u2013888 (2001)","journal-title":"Am. J. Public Health"},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"427","DOI":"10.1016\/S0169-5347(99)01677-8","volume":"14","author":"ON Bj\u00f8rnstad","year":"1999","unstructured":"Bj\u00f8rnstad, O. N., Ims, R. A. & Lambin, X. Spatial population dynamics: analyzing patterns and processes of population synchrony. Trends Ecol. Evol. 14, 427\u2013432 (1999)","journal-title":"Trends Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/S0025-5564(02)00098-6","volume":"179","author":"I N\u00e5sell","year":"2002","unstructured":"N\u00e5sell, I. Stochastic models of some endemic infections. Math. Biosci. 179, 1\u201319 (2002)","journal-title":"Math. Biosci."},{"key":"BFnature03072_CR30","volume-title":"Population of the 100 Largest Cities and Other Urban Places in the United States: 1790\u20131990","author":"C Gibson","year":"1998","unstructured":"Gibson, C. Population of the 100 Largest Cities and Other Urban Places in the United States: 1790\u20131990 (Working Paper No. 27, Population Division, US Census Bureau, Washington DC, 1998)"}],"container-title":["Nature"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/nature03072.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/nature03072","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/nature03072.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,18]],"date-time":"2023-05-18T18:28:18Z","timestamp":1684434498000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/nature03072"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2005,1]]},"references-count":30,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7024","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2005,1]]}},"alternative-id":["BFnature03072"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/nature03072","relation":{},"ISSN":["0028-0836","1476-4687"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0028-0836","type":"print"},{"value":"1476-4687","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2005,1]]}}}