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Here we use multicolour fluorescence\n                    <jats:italic>in situ<\/jats:italic>\n                    hybridization on brush cytology specimens, from two time points with a median interval of 37 months in 195 non-dysplastic Barrett's patients, and a third time point in a subset of 90 patients at a median interval of 36 months, to study clonal evolution at single-cell resolution. Baseline genetic diversity predicts progression and remains in a stable dynamic equilibrium over time. Clonal expansions are rare, being detected once every 36.8 patient years, and growing at an average rate of 1.58\u2009cm\n                    <jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\n                    (95% CI: 0.09\u20134.06) per year, often involving the\n                    <jats:italic>p16<\/jats:italic>\n                    locus. This suggests a lack of strong clonal selection in Barrett\u2019s and that the malignant potential of \u2018benign\u2019 Barrett\u2019s lesions is predetermined, with important implications for surveillance programs.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/ncomms12158","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,8,19]],"date-time":"2016-08-19T07:23:22Z","timestamp":1471591402000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":88,"title":["Dynamic clonal equilibrium and predetermined cancer risk in Barrett\u2019s oesophagus"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"7","author":[{"given":"Pierre","family":"Martinez","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Margriet R.","family":"Timmer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chiu T.","family":"Lau","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Silvia","family":"Calpe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maria del Carmen","family":"Sancho-Serra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Danielle","family":"Straub","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ann-Marie","family":"Baker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sybren L.","family":"Meijer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fiebo J. W. ten","family":"Kate","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rosalie C.","family":"Mallant-Hent","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anton H. J.","family":"Naber","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Arnoud H. A. M.","family":"van Oijen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lubbertus C.","family":"Baak","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pieter","family":"Scholten","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Clarisse J. 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The remaining authors declare no conflict of interests.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"12158"}}