{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,16]],"date-time":"2026-09-16T22:37:49Z","timestamp":1789598269767,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":35,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,2,24]],"date-time":"2017-02-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1487894400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,2,24]],"date-time":"2017-02-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1487894400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Nat Commun"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>West Nile virus (WNV) is now endemic in the continental United States; however, our ability to predict spillover transmission risk and human WNV cases remains limited. Here we develop a model depicting WNV transmission dynamics, which we optimize using a data assimilation method and two observed data streams, mosquito infection rates and reported human WNV cases. The coupled model-inference framework is then used to generate retrospective ensemble forecasts of historical WNV outbreaks in Long Island, New York for 2001\u20132014. Accurate forecasts of mosquito infection rates are generated before peak infection, and &gt;65% of forecasts accurately predict seasonal total human WNV cases up to 9 weeks before the past reported case. This work provides the foundation for implementation of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal outbreaks of WNV.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/ncomms14592","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,2,24]],"date-time":"2017-02-24T10:14:13Z","timestamp":1487931253000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":97,"title":["Ensemble forecast of human West Nile virus cases and mosquito infection rates"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"8","author":[{"given":"Nicholas B.","family":"DeFelice","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Eliza","family":"Little","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Scott R.","family":"Campbell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jeffrey","family":"Shaman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,2,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2333","DOI":"10.1126\/science.286.5448.2333","volume":"286","author":"R Lanciotti","year":"1999","unstructured":"Lanciotti, R. et al. Origin of the West Nile virus responsible for an outbreak of encephalitis in the Northeastern United States. Science 286, 2333\u20132337 (1999).","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"929","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm6434a1","volume":"64","author":"NP Lindsey","year":"2015","unstructured":"Lindsey, N. P., Lehman, J. A., Staples, J. E. & Fischer, M. West Nile Virus and other nationally notifiable arboviral diseases-United States, 2014. MMWR Morb. Mortal. Wkly. Rep. 64, 929 (2015).","journal-title":"MMWR Morb. Mortal. Wkly. Rep."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"974","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2008.79.974","volume":"79","author":"CA Reimann","year":"2008","unstructured":"Reimann, C. A. et al. Epidemiology of neuroinvasive arboviral disease in the United States, 1999\u20132007. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 79, 974\u2013979 (2008).","journal-title":"Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"591","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268812001070","volume":"141","author":"L Petersen","year":"2013","unstructured":"Petersen, L. et al. Estimated cumulative incidence of West Nile virus infection in US adults, 1999\u20132010. Epidemiol Infect. 141, 591\u2013595 (2013).","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1354","DOI":"10.1086\/656602","volume":"202","author":"S Zou","year":"2010","unstructured":"Zou, S., Foster, G. A., Dodd, R. Y., Petersen, L. R. & Stramer, S. L. West Nile fever characteristics among viremic persons identified through blood donor screening. J. Infect. Dis. 202, 1354\u20131361 (2010).","journal-title":"J. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"308","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2013.8042","volume":"310","author":"LR Petersen","year":"2013","unstructured":"Petersen, L. R., Brault, A. C. & Nasci, R. S. West Nile virus: review of the literature. JAMA 310, 308\u2013315 (2013).","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"269","DOI":"10.2217\/imt.10.93","volume":"3","author":"DW Beasley","year":"2011","unstructured":"Beasley, D. W. Vaccines and immunotherapeutics for the prevention and treatment of infections with West Nile virus. Immunotherapy 3, 269\u2013285 (2011).","journal-title":"Immunotherapy"},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"330","DOI":"10.1016\/S0188-4409(02)00378-8","volume":"33","author":"DJ Gubler","year":"2002","unstructured":"Gubler, D. J. The global emergence\/resurgence of arboviral diseases as public health problems. Arch. Med. Res. 33, 330\u2013342 (2002).","journal-title":"Arch. Med. Res."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1525\/cond.2009.080013","volume":"111","author":"SS Wheeler","year":"2009","unstructured":"Wheeler, S. S. et al. Differential impact of West Nile virus on California birds. Condor 111, 1\u201320 (2009).","journal-title":"Condor"},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2327","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2006.3575","volume":"273","author":"AM Kilpatrick","year":"2006","unstructured":"Kilpatrick, A. M., Daszak, P., Jones, M. J., Marra, P. P. & Kramer, L. D. Host heterogeneity dominates West Nile virus transmission. Proc. Biol. Sci. 273, 2327\u20132333 (2006).","journal-title":"Proc. Biol. Sci."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"130","DOI":"10.1603\/0022-2585-38.2.130","volume":"38","author":"MJ Turell","year":"2001","unstructured":"Turell, M. J., O\u2019Guinn, M. L., Dohm, D. J. & Jones, J. W. Vector competence of North American mosquitoes (diptera: culicidae) for West Nile virus. J.Med. Entomol. 38, 130\u2013134 (2001).","journal-title":"J.Med. Entomol."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2161","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1012.040486","volume":"10","author":"AC Brault","year":"2004","unstructured":"Brault, A. C. et al. Differential virulence of West Nile strains for American crows. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 10, 2161 (2004).","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"27","DOI":"10.1089\/153036603765627433","volume":"3","author":"AT Peterson","year":"2003","unstructured":"Peterson, A. T., Vieglais, D. A. & Andreasen, J. K. Migratory birds modeled as critical transport agents for West Nile virus in North America. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 3, 27\u201337 (2003).","journal-title":"Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"163","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.13-0432","volume":"90","author":"NP Lindsey","year":"2014","unstructured":"Lindsey, N. P., Staples, J. E., Delorey, M. J. & Fischer, M. Lack of evidence of increased West Nile virus disease severity in the United States in 2012. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 90, 163\u2013168 (2014).","journal-title":"Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR15","first-page":"1","volume":"59","author":"NP Lindsey","year":"2010","unstructured":"Lindsey, N. P., Staples, J. E., Lehman, J. A. & Fischer, M. Surveillance for human West Nile virus disease\u2014United States, 1999\u20132008. MMWR Surveill. Summ. 59, 1\u201317 (2010).","journal-title":"MMWR Surveill. Summ."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"929","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm6434a1","volume":"64","author":"NP Lindsey","year":"2015","unstructured":"Lindsey, N. P., Lehman, J. A., Erin Staples, J. & Fischer, M. West Nile virus and other nationally notifiable arboviral diseases-United States, 2014. MMWR Morb. Mortal Wkly. Rep. no. 34, 64, 929\u2013934 (2015).","journal-title":"MMWR Morb. Mortal Wkly. Rep. no. 34,"},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"20425","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1208772109","volume":"109","author":"J Shaman","year":"2012","unstructured":"Shaman, J. & Karspeck, A. Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 20425\u201320430 (2012).","journal-title":"Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2837","DOI":"10.1038\/ncomms3837","volume":"4","author":"J Shaman","year":"2013","unstructured":"Shaman, J., Karspeck, A., Yang, W., Tamerius, J. & Lipsitch, M. Real-time influenza forecasts during the 2012\u20132013 season. Nat. Commun. 4, 2837 (2013).","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Shaman, J., Yang, W. & Kandula, S. Inference and Forecast of the Current West African Ebola Outbreak in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. PLoS Currents Outbreaks doi: 10.1371\/currents.outbreaks.3408774290b1a0f2dd7cae877c8b8ff6 (2014).","DOI":"10.1371\/currents.outbreaks.3408774290b1a0f2dd7cae877c8b8ff6"},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1004383","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1004383","volume":"11","author":"W Yang","year":"2015","unstructured":"Yang, W., Cowling, B. J., Lau, E. H. & Shaman, J. Forecasting influenza epidemics in Hong Kong. PLoS Comput. Biol. 11, e1004383 (2015).","journal-title":"PLoS Comput. Biol."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e10036","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0010036","volume":"5","author":"JBS Ong","year":"2010","unstructured":"Ong, J. B. S. et al. Real-time epidemic monitoring and forecasting of H1N1-2009 using influenza-like illness from general practice and family doctor clinics in Singapore. PLoS ONE 5, e10036 (2010).","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2884","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(2001)129<2884:AEAKFF>2.0.CO;2","volume":"129","author":"JL Anderson","year":"2001","unstructured":"Anderson, J. L. An ensemble adjustment Kalman filter for data assimilation. Monthly Weather Rev. 129, 2884\u20132903 (2001).","journal-title":"Monthly Weather Rev."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"67","DOI":"10.1126\/science.161.3836.67","volume":"161","author":"JD Edman","year":"1968","unstructured":"Edman, J. D. & Taylor, D. J. Culex nigripalpus: seasonal shift in the bird-mammal feeding ratio in a mosquito vector of human encephalitis. Science 161, 67\u201368 (1968).","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"606","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pbio.0040082","volume":"4","author":"AM Kilpatrick","year":"2006","unstructured":"Kilpatrick, A. M., Kramer, L. D., Jones, M. J., Marra, P. P. & Daszak, P. West Nile virus epidemics in North America are driven by shifts in mosquito feeding behavior. PLoS Biol. 4, 606 (2006).","journal-title":"PLoS Biol."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"73","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2007.77.73","volume":"77","author":"G Molaei","year":"2007","unstructured":"Molaei, G. et al. Host feeding pattern of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) and its role in transmission of West Nile virus in Harris County, Texas. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 77, 73\u201381 (2007).","journal-title":"Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"925","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2011.1282","volume":"279","author":"JE Simpson","year":"2012","unstructured":"Simpson, J. E. et al. Vector host-feeding preferences drive transmission of multi-host pathogens: West Nile virus as a model system. Proc. Biol. Sci. 279, 925\u2013933 (2012).","journal-title":"Proc. Biol. Sci."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"742","DOI":"10.3201\/eid0704.017426","volume":"7","author":"RS Nasci","year":"2001","unstructured":"Nasci, R. S. et al. West Nile virus in overwintering Culex mosquitoes, New York City, 2000. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 7, 742 (2001).","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"309","DOI":"10.1603\/0022-2585(2006)043[0309:EOTOTT]2.0.CO;2","volume":"43","author":"WK Reisen","year":"2006","unstructured":"Reisen, W. K., Fang, Y. & Martinez, V. M. Effects of temperature on the transmission of West Nile virus by Culex tarsalis (Diptera: Culicidae). J. Med. Entomol. 43, 309\u2013317 (2006).","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"478","DOI":"10.1198\/108571108X379055","volume":"13","author":"BJ Biggerstaff","year":"2008","unstructured":"Biggerstaff, B. J. Confidence intervals for the difference of two proportions estimated from pooled samples. J. Agric. Biol. Environ. Stat. 13, 478\u2013496 (2008).","journal-title":"J. Agric. Biol. Environ. Stat."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR30","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. West Nile virus disease cases and deaths reported to CDC by year and clinical presentation, 1999\u20132014 (CDC, Atlanta, GA, USA, 2015) http:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/westnile\/statsMaps\/cumMapsData.html."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR31","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Fort Collins, Colorado: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Available at: http:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/westnile\/resources\/pdfs\/wnvGuidelines.pdf (2013)."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1003583","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1003583","volume":"10","author":"W Yang","year":"2014","unstructured":"Yang, W., Karspeck, A. & Shaman, J. Comparison of filtering methods for the modeling and retrospective forecasting of influenza epidemics. PLoS Comput. Biol. 10, e1003583 (2014).","journal-title":"PLoS Comput. Biol."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"501","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2003.2608","volume":"271","author":"MJ Wonham","year":"2004","unstructured":"Wonham, M. J., de-Camino-Beck, T. & Lewis, M. A. An epidemiological model for West Nile virus: invasion analysis and control applications. Proc. Biol. Sci. 271, 501\u2013507 (2004).","journal-title":"Proc. Biol. Sci."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"884","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2012.11-0342","volume":"86","author":"DM Hartley","year":"2012","unstructured":"Hartley, D. M. et al. Effects of temperature on emergence and seasonality of West Nile virus in California. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 86, 884\u2013894 (2012).","journal-title":"Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"BFncomms14592_CR35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"311","DOI":"10.3201\/eid0903.020628","volume":"9","author":"N Komar","year":"2003","unstructured":"Komar, N. et al. Experimental infection of North American birds with the New York 1999 strain of West Nile virus. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 9, 311 (2003).","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis."}],"container-title":["Nature Communications"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/ncomms14592.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/ncomms14592","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/ncomms14592.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,22]],"date-time":"2022-12-22T23:48:22Z","timestamp":1671752902000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/ncomms14592"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2017,2,24]]},"references-count":35,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,4,28]]}},"alternative-id":["BFncomms14592"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/ncomms14592","relation":{},"ISSN":["2041-1723"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2041-1723","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2017,2,24]]},"assertion":[{"value":"3 June 2016","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"17 January 2017","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"24 February 2017","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"J.S. discloses partial ownership of SK Analytics. The remaining authors declare no competing financial interests.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"14592"}}