{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,28]],"date-time":"2026-10-28T03:09:15Z","timestamp":1793156955358,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":39,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2012,9,6]],"date-time":"2012-09-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1346889600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":1436,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Obesity"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2008,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>We projected future prevalence and BMI distribution based on national survey data (National Health and Nutrition Examination Study) collected between 1970s and 2004. Future obesity\u2010related health\u2010care costs for adults were estimated using projected prevalence, Census population projections, and published national estimates of per capita excess health\u2010care costs of obesity\/overweight. The objective was to illustrate potential burden of obesity prevalence and health\u2010care costs of obesity and overweight in the United States that would occur if current trends continue. Overweight and obesity prevalence have increased steadily among all US population groups, but with notable differences between groups in annual increase rates. The increase (percentage points) in obesity and overweight in adults was faster than in children (0.77 vs. 0.46\u20130.49), and in women than in men (0.91 vs. 0.65). If these trends continue, by 2030, 86.3% adults will be overweight or obese; and 51.1%, obese. Black women (96.9%) and Mexican\u2010American men (91.1%) would be the most affected. By 2048, all American adults would become overweight or obese, while black women will reach that state by 2034. In children, the prevalence of overweight (BMI \u2265 95th percentile, 30%) will nearly double by 2030. Total health\u2010care costs attributable to obesity\/overweight would double every decade to 860.7\u2013956.9 billion US dollars by 2030, accounting for 16\u201318% of total US health\u2010care costs. We continue to move away from the Healthy People 2010 objectives. Timely, dramatic, and effective development and implementation of corrective programs\/policies are needed to avoid the otherwise inevitable health and societal consequences implied by our projections.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/oby.2008.351","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2008,8,19]],"date-time":"2008-08-19T04:42:36Z","timestamp":1219120956000},"page":"2323-2330","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1102,"title":["Will All Americans Become Overweight or Obese? Estimating the Progression and Cost of the US Obesity Epidemic"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"16","author":[{"given":"Youfa","family":"Wang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"May A.","family":"Beydoun","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lan","family":"Liang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Benjamin","family":"Caballero","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shiriki K.","family":"Kumanyika","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2012,9,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/epirev\/mxm007"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ajcn\/84.4.707"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.295.13.1549"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/oby.2003.20"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/oby.2004.202"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_7_2","unstructured":"US Department of Health and Human Services (USDHHS).Healthy People 2010<http:www.healthypeople.gov> (2006)."},{"key":"e_1_2_7_8_2","volume-title":"Handbook of Obesity: Clinical Applications","author":"Bray G","year":"1998"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMsr043743"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00005768-199911001-00026"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_11_2","article-title":"National medical expenditures attributable to overweight and obesity: how much and who's paying?","author":"Finkelstein E","year":"2003","journal-title":"Health Aff"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_12_2","article-title":"The impact of obesity on rising medical spending","author":"Thorpe KE","year":"2004","journal-title":"Health Aff (Millwood)"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1542\/peds.109.5.e81"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/j.1550-8528.1998.tb00322.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_15_2","unstructured":"Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey<http:www.cdc.govnchsnhanes.htm> (2006)."},{"key":"e_1_2_7_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ajcn\/70.1.126s"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_17_2","first-page":"1","article-title":"CDC growth charts: United States","volume":"314","author":"Kuczmarski RJ","year":"2000","journal-title":"Adv Data"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_18_2","unstructured":"World Health Organization (WHO).Obesity: preventing and managing the global epidemic. Report of a WHO consultation. Technical report series 894. WHO: Geneva 2000."},{"key":"e_1_2_7_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/sj.ijo.0802801"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_20_2","volume-title":"Physical status, the use and interpretation of anthropometry. Technical Report Series 54","author":"WHO Expert Committee","year":"1995"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ajcn\/53.4.839"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"307","DOI":"10.1093\/ajcn\/59.2.307","article-title":"Guidelines for overweight in adolescent preventive services: recommendations from an expert committee. 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