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We analyzed registry data from 238,696 persons born and living in Sweden between 1995 and 1999. Several machine learning techniques were used to assess the ability of registry data to inform the diagnosis of ADHD in childhood and adolescence: logistic regression, random Forest, gradient boosting, XGBoost, penalized logistic regression, deep neural network (DNN), and ensemble models. The best fitting model was the DNN, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.75, 95% CI (0.74\u20130.76) and balanced accuracy of 0.69. At the 0.45 probability threshold, sensitivity was 71.66% and specificity was 65.0%. There was an overall agreement in the feature importance among all models (\u03c4\u2009&gt;\u2009.5). The top 5 features contributing to classification were having a parent with criminal convictions, male sex, having a relative with ADHD, number of academic subjects failed, and speech\/learning disabilities. A DNN model predicting childhood and adolescent ADHD trained exclusively on Swedish register data achieved good discrimination. If replicated and validated in an external sample, and proven to be cost-effective, this model could be used to alert clinicians to individuals who ought to be screened for ADHD and to aid clinicians\u2019 decision-making with the goal of decreasing misdiagnoses. Further research is needed to validate results in different populations and to incorporate new predictors.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41380-022-01918-8","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,19]],"date-time":"2022-12-19T05:03:19Z","timestamp":1671426199000},"page":"1232-1239","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":56,"title":["Predicting childhood and adolescent attention-deficit\/hyperactivity disorder onset: a nationwide deep learning approach"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"28","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4811-2330","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Miguel","family":"Garcia-Argibay","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yanli","family":"Zhang-James","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Samuele","family":"Cortese","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3037-5287","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Paul","family":"Lichtenstein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6851-3297","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Henrik","family":"Larsson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephen V.","family":"Faraone","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"1918_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"434","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyt261","volume":"43","author":"GV Polanczyk","year":"2014","unstructured":"Polanczyk GV, Willcutt EG, Salum GA, Kieling C, Rohde LA. 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In the past year, SVF received income, potential income, travel expenses continuing education support and\/or research support from Aardvark, Rhodes, OnDosis, Tris, Otsuka, Arbor, Ironshore, KemPharm\/Corium, Akili, Supernus, Takeda, Atentiv, Noven, Axsome and Genomind. With his institution, he has US patent US20130217707 A1 for the use of sodium-hydrogen exchange inhibitors in the treatment of ADHD. He also receives royalties from books published by Guilford Press: Straight Talk about Your Child\u2019s Mental Health, Oxford University Press: Schizophrenia: The Facts and Elsevier: ADHD: Non-Pharmacologic Interventions. He is Program Director of\n                      \n                      and\n                      \n                      . The other authors declare no competing interests.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}},{"value":"The study had ethical approval from the Regional Ethical Review Board in Stockholm, Sweden (Dnr 2013\/862\u201331\/5). The requirement for informed consent was waived because the study was register-based and data on the included individuals were deidentified. The investigation conforms to the 1964 Helsinki declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical standards.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethical approval"}}]}}