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We calculated estimates of cancer caused by alcohol use in Australia for the updated recommended limits.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for cancer incidence in relation to self-reported alcohol consumption (drinks\/week) among 225,805 participants aged \u226545 years (2005\u20132009) in the New South Wales (NSW) 45 and Up Study, an Australian prospective cohort study (baseline\n                      <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009=\u2009267,357). Cumulative absolute risk of cancer to age 85 years was estimated using 0 to &lt;1 drink\/week as the comparator. Population attributable fractions were calculated using Australian national alcohol consumption and cancer incidence data, compared to a theoretical minimum risk exposure of no alcohol consumption. Cancer cases and deaths were ascertained through record linkage to the NSW Cancer Registry and NSW Registry of Births Deaths &amp; Marriages to 2019. Participants diagnosed with cancer pre-baseline were excluded.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Over a median 11.4 years, 34,860 cancer cases were recorded. When modelled as a continuous variable, alcohol-related cancer risk increased by 19% for every ten drinks\/week increase in consumption (HR: 1.19; 95% confidence interval: 1.15\u20131.23). By age 85 years, those who consumed &gt;10 drinks\/week had an estimated 4.9% higher cumulative absolute risk of an alcohol-related cancer compared to those consuming 0 to &lt;1 drink\/week. An estimated 7804 cancer cases (4.6% of all cancer cases) were attributable to alcohol use in 2024.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The proportion of alcohol-attributable cancers in Australia is substantial and somewhat higher than previously estimated.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41416-026-03403-3","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,10]],"date-time":"2026-04-10T15:58:01Z","timestamp":1775836681000},"page":"104-117","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Alcohol-attributable cancer risk and burden estimates for Australia\u2019s updated alcohol consumption guidelines"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"135","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9596-6825","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Peter","family":"Sarich","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Karen","family":"Canfell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sam","family":"Egger","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Emily","family":"Banks","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0718-6368","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Grace","family":"Joshy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1514-2135","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lyndal","family":"Wellard-Cole","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Clare","family":"Hughes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3641-952X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nehmat","family":"Houssami","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Paul","family":"Grogan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marianne F.","family":"Weber","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,10]]},"reference":[{"key":"3403_CR1","unstructured":"Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. 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PS was funded by a postgraduate research scholarship from Cancer Council NSW, the 45 and Up PhD Scholarship in Cancer Research. KC is co-principal investigator of an unrelated investigator-initiated trial of cervical screening in Australia (Compass; ACTRN12613001207707 and NCT02328872), which is conducted and funded by the VCS Foundation (VCS), a government-funded health promotion charity. KC is also an investigator of Compass New Zealand (ACTRN12614000714684), which was conducted and funded by Diagnostic Medlab (DML), now Auckland District Health Board. The VCS Foundation received equipment and a funding contribution from Roche Molecular Systems and Ventana USA and DML received equipment and a funding contribution for Compass from Roche Molecular Systems. However, neither KC nor her institution on her behalf receives direct funding from industry for this trial or any other project. EB and KC are supported by Investigator Grants from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (NHMRC) (references 1136128 and 1194679, respectively). EB was Deputy Chair of the NHMRC Alcohol Working Group (2016-2020) which advised on the updated national Australian guidelines on alcohol consumption. NH is supported by a National Breast Cancer Foundation Chair in Breast Cancer Prevention grant (reference: EC-21-001) and an NHMRC Investigator Grant (reference: 1194410). The other authors have no interests to declare. Funding sources did not have any role in study design; in the collection, analysis and interpretation of data; in the writing of the report; and in the decision to submit the article for publication.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}},{"value":"Ethics approval for the 45 and Up Study was granted by the University of New South Wales Human Research Ethics Committee (reference: HC210602), and for this specific analysis by the NSW Population Health Services Research Ethics Committee (reference: 2014\/08\/551). Written informed consent was obtained from all participants in the study. The study was performed in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethics approval and consent to participate"}}]}}