{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,1]],"date-time":"2026-05-01T15:33:38Z","timestamp":1777649618563,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":30,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,8,28]],"date-time":"2019-08-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1566950400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/www.springer.com\/tdm"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,8,28]],"date-time":"2019-08-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1566950400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/www.springer.com\/tdm"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Eye"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,4]]},"DOI":"10.1038\/s41433-019-0554-4","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,8,28]],"date-time":"2019-08-28T16:05:57Z","timestamp":1567008357000},"page":"657-662","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":13,"title":["Royston\u2212Parmar flexible parametric survival model to predict the probability of keratoconus progression to corneal transplantation"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"34","author":[{"given":"Ana","family":"Quartilho","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Daniel M.","family":"Gore","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0935-3713","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Catey","family":"Bunce","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Stephen J.","family":"Tuft","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,8,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"554_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"297","DOI":"10.1016\/S0039-6257(97)00119-7","volume":"42","author":"YS Rabinowitz","year":"1998","unstructured":"Rabinowitz YS. Keratoconus. Surv Ophthalmol. 1998;42:297\u2013319.","journal-title":"Surv Ophthalmol"},{"key":"554_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"169","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajo.2016.12.015","volume":"175","author":"DA Godefrooij","year":"2017","unstructured":"Godefrooij DA, de Wit GA, Uiterwaal CS, Imhof SM, Wisse RP. Age-specific incidence and prevalence of keratoconus: a nationwide registration study. Am J Ophthalmol. 2017;175:169\u201372.","journal-title":"Am J Ophthalmol"},{"key":"554_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"890","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0420.2007.00981.x","volume":"85","author":"K Nielsen","year":"2007","unstructured":"Nielsen K, Hjortdal J, Aagaard Nohr E, Ehlers N. Incidence and prevalence of keratoconus in Denmark. Acta Ophthalmol Scand. 2007;85:890\u20132.","journal-title":"Acta Ophthalmol Scand"},{"key":"554_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"625","DOI":"10.1038\/eye.2000.154","volume":"14","author":"AR Pearson","year":"2000","unstructured":"Pearson AR, Soneji B, Sarvananthan N, Sandford-Smith JH. Does ethnic origin influence the incidence or severity of keratoconus? Eye. 2000;14:625\u20138.","journal-title":"Eye"},{"key":"554_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Bak-Nielsen S, Ramlau-Hansen CH, Ivarsen A, Plana-Ripoll O, Hjortdal J. A nationwide population-based study of social demographic factors, associated diseases and mortality of keratoconus patients in Denmark from 1977 to 2015. Acta Ophthalmol. 2018. \nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/aos.13961\n\n. [Epub ahead of print].","DOI":"10.1111\/aos.13961"},{"key":"554_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"671","DOI":"10.1097\/00003226-200210000-00008","volume":"21","author":"K Zadnik","year":"2002","unstructured":"Zadnik K, Steger-May K, Fink BA, Joslin CE, Nichols JJ, Rosenstiel CE, et al. Between-eye asymmetry in keratoconus. Cornea. 2002;21:671\u20139.","journal-title":"Cornea"},{"key":"554_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"611","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajo.2007.11.017","volume":"145","author":"SM Kymes","year":"2008","unstructured":"Kymes SM, Walline JJ, Zadnik K, Sterling J, Gordon MO. Collaborative Longitudinal Evaluation of Keratoconus Study G Changes in the quality-of-life of people with keratoconus. Am J Ophthalmol. 2008;145:611\u20137.","journal-title":"Am J Ophthalmol"},{"key":"554_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"433","DOI":"10.1016\/S0161-6420(90)32569-1","volume":"97","author":"JH Lass","year":"1990","unstructured":"Lass JH, Lembach RG, Park SB, Hom DL, Fritz ME, Svilar GM, et al. Clinical management of keratoconus. A multicenter analysis. Ophthalmology. 1990;97:433\u201345.","journal-title":"Ophthalmology"},{"key":"554_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1154","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajo.2015.08.023","volume":"160","author":"DP O\u2019Brart","year":"2015","unstructured":"O\u2019Brart DP, Patel P, Lascaratos G, Wagh VK, Tam C, Lee J, et al. Corneal cross-linking to halt the progression of keratoconus and corneal ectasia: seven-year follow-up. Am J Ophthalmol. 2015;160:1154\u201363.","journal-title":"Am J Ophthalmol"},{"key":"554_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"812","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ophtha.2013.10.028","volume":"121","author":"C Wittig-Silva","year":"2014","unstructured":"Wittig-Silva C, Chan E, Islam FM, Wu T, Whiting M, Snibson GR. A randomized, controlled trial of corneal collagen cross-linking in progressive keratoconus: three-year results. Ophthalmology. 2014;121:812\u201321.","journal-title":"Ophthalmology"},{"key":"554_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"675","DOI":"10.1111\/aos.13095","volume":"94","author":"DA Godefrooij","year":"2016","unstructured":"Godefrooij DA, Gans R, Imhof SM, Wisse RP. Nationwide reduction in the number of corneal transplantations for keratoconus following the implementation of cross-linking. Acta Ophthalmol. 2016;94:675\u20138.","journal-title":"Acta Ophthalmol"},{"key":"554_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1358","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jcrs.2009.03.035","volume":"35","author":"T Koller","year":"2009","unstructured":"Koller T, Mrochen M, Seiler T. Complication and failure rates after corneal crosslinking. J Cataract Refract Surg. 2009;35:1358\u201362.","journal-title":"J Cataract Refract Surg"},{"key":"554_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"770","DOI":"10.1016\/j.survophthal.2017.06.009","volume":"62","author":"V Mas Tur","year":"2017","unstructured":"Mas Tur V, MacGregor C, Jayaswal R, O\u2019Brart D, Maycock N. A review of keratoconus: diagnosis, pathophysiology, and genetics. Surv Ophthalmol. 2017;62:770\u201383.","journal-title":"Surv Ophthalmol"},{"key":"554_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"673","DOI":"10.1111\/opo.12237","volume":"35","author":"A Gordon-Shaag","year":"2015","unstructured":"Gordon-Shaag A, Millodot M, Kaiserman I, Sela T, Barnett Itzhaki G, Zerbib Y, et al. Risk factors for keratoconus in Israel: a case-control study. Ophthalmic Physiol Opt. 2015;35:673\u201381.","journal-title":"Ophthalmic Physiol Opt"},{"key":"554_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"296","DOI":"10.1097\/01.ico.0000178728.57435.df","volume":"25","author":"TT McMahon","year":"2006","unstructured":"McMahon TT, Edrington TB, Szczotka-Flynn L, Olafsson HE, Davis LJ, Schechtman KB, et al. Longitudinal changes in corneal curvature in keratoconus. Cornea. 2006;25:296\u2013305.","journal-title":"Cornea"},{"key":"554_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"439","DOI":"10.1016\/S0161-6420(94)31313-3","volume":"101","author":"SJ Tuft","year":"1994","unstructured":"Tuft SJ, Moodaley LC, Gregory WM, Davison CR, Buckley RJ. Prognostic factors for the progression of keratoconus. Ophthalmology. 1994;101:439\u201347.","journal-title":"Ophthalmology"},{"key":"554_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2175","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.1203","volume":"21","author":"P Royston","year":"2002","unstructured":"Royston P, Parmar MK. Flexible parametric proportional-hazards and proportional-odds models for censored survival data, with application to prognostic modelling and estimation of treatment effects. Stat Med. 2002;21:2175\u201397.","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"554_CR18","unstructured":"Royston P, Lambert PC. Flexible parametric survival analysis using stata: beyond the Cox model. College Station, TX: Stata Press; 2011."},{"key":"554_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"92","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0006-341X.2005.030814.x","volume":"61","author":"PJ Heagerty","year":"2005","unstructured":"Heagerty PJ, Zheng Y. Survival model predictive accuracy and ROC curves. Biometrics. 2005;61:92\u2013105.","journal-title":"Biometrics"},{"key":"554_CR20","unstructured":"R Core Team. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing; 2014. \nhttp:\/\/www.R-project.org\/\n\n. Accessed May 2019."},{"key":"554_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"434","DOI":"10.1111\/1471-0528.13244","volume":"122","author":"GS Collins","year":"2015","unstructured":"Collins GS, Reitsma JB, Altman DG, Moons KGM. Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD): the TRIPOD statement. BJOG. 2015;122:434\u201343.","journal-title":"BJOG"},{"key":"554_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e012799","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2016-012799","volume":"6","author":"JF Cohen","year":"2016","unstructured":"Cohen JF, Korevaar DA, Altman DG, Bruns DE, Gatsonis CA, Hooft L, et al. STARD 2015 guidelines for reporting diagnostic accuracy studies: explanation and elaboration. BMJ Open. 2016;6:e012799.","journal-title":"BMJ Open"},{"key":"554_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"331","DOI":"10.1097\/ICL.0000000000000085","volume":"40","author":"SE Brown","year":"2014","unstructured":"Brown SE, Simmasalam R, Antonova N, Gadaria N, Asbell PA. Progression in keratoconus and the effect of corneal cross-linking on progression. Eye Contact Lens. 2014;40:331\u20138.","journal-title":"Eye Contact Lens"},{"key":"554_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"329","DOI":"10.1038\/eye.2012.257","volume":"27","author":"DM Gore","year":"2013","unstructured":"Gore DM, Shortt AJ, Allan BD. New clinical pathways for keratoconus. Eye. 2013;27:329\u201339.","journal-title":"Eye"},{"key":"554_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1183","DOI":"10.1136\/bjophthalmol-2015-307201","volume":"100","author":"TH Flynn","year":"2016","unstructured":"Flynn TH, Sharma DP, Bunce C, Wilkins MR. Differential precision of corneal Pentacam HR measurements in early and advanced keratoconus. Br J Ophthalmol. 2016;100:1183\u20137.","journal-title":"Br J Ophthalmol"},{"key":"554_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"223","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajo.2018.08.005","volume":"195","author":"BT Lopes","year":"2018","unstructured":"Lopes BT, Ramos IC, Salom\u00e3o MQ, Guerra FP, Schallhorn SC, Schallhorn JM, et al. Enhanced tomographic Assessment to detect corneal ectasia based on artificial intelligence. Am J Ophthalmol. 2018;195:223\u201332.","journal-title":"Am J Ophthalmol"},{"key":"554_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e47804","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0047804","volume":"7","author":"B Miladinovic","year":"2012","unstructured":"Miladinovic B, Kumar A, Mhaskar R, Kim S, Schonwetter R, Djulbegovic B. A flexible alternative to the Cox proportional hazards model for assessing the prognostic accuracy of hospice patient survival. PLoS ONE. 2012;7:e47804.","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"key":"554_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"841","DOI":"10.1136\/bjophthalmol-2014-304930","volume":"98","author":"PM Cumberland","year":"2014","unstructured":"Cumberland PM, Czanner G, Bunce C, Dore CJ, Freemantle N, Garcia-Finana M, et al. Ophthalmic statistics note: the perils of dichotomising continuous variables. Br J Ophthalmol. 2014;98:841\u20133.","journal-title":"Br J Ophthalmol"},{"key":"554_CR29","first-page":"4192","volume":"35","author":"MK Smolek","year":"1994","unstructured":"Smolek MK, Klyce SD, Maeda N. Keratoconus and contact lens-induced corneal warpage analysis using the keratomorphic diagram. Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 1994;35:4192\u2013204.","journal-title":"Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci"},{"key":"554_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2290","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jcrs.2004.05.021","volume":"30","author":"PS Tsai","year":"2004","unstructured":"Tsai PS, Dowidar A, Naseri A, McLeod SD. Predicting time to refractive stability after discontinuation of rigid contact lens wear before refractive surgery. J Cataract Refract Surg. 2004;30:2290\u20134.","journal-title":"J Cataract Refract Surg"}],"container-title":["Eye"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41433-019-0554-4.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41433-019-0554-4","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41433-019-0554-4.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,20]],"date-time":"2023-05-20T21:08:05Z","timestamp":1684616885000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41433-019-0554-4"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,8,28]]},"references-count":30,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,4]]}},"alternative-id":["554"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41433-019-0554-4","relation":{},"ISSN":["0950-222X","1476-5454"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0950-222X","type":"print"},{"value":"1476-5454","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,8,28]]},"assertion":[{"value":"6 January 2019","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"11 May 2019","order":2,"name":"revised","label":"Revised","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"4 July 2019","order":3,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"28 August 2019","order":4,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Compliance with ethical standards"}},{"value":"The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Conflict of interest"}}]}}