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Yet, its mutation rate is higher than that of viruses like HIV, for which no effective vaccine exists. To investigate this, we infer a fitness model for the poliovirus viral protein 1 (vp1), which successfully predicts in vitro fitness measurements. This is achieved by first developing a probabilistic model for the prevalence of vp1 sequences that enables us to isolate and remove data that are subject to strong vaccine-derived biases. The intrinsic fitness constraints derived for vp1, a capsid protein subject to antibody responses, are compared with those of analogous HIV proteins. We find that vp1 evolution is subject to tighter constraints, limiting its ability to evade vaccine-induced immune responses. Our analysis also indicates that circulating poliovirus strains in unimmunized populations serve as a reservoir that can seed outbreaks in spatio-temporally localized sub-optimally immunized populations.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-019-14174-2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,1,17]],"date-time":"2020-01-17T11:03:05Z","timestamp":1579258985000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":29,"title":["Deconvolving mutational patterns of poliovirus outbreaks reveals its intrinsic fitness landscape"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"11","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5295-9067","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ahmed A.","family":"Quadeer","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"John P.","family":"Barton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Arup K.","family":"Chakraborty","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8086-2545","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Matthew R.","family":"McKay","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,1,17]]},"reference":[{"key":"14174_CR1","unstructured":"World-Health-Organization. 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