{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,18]],"date-time":"2026-06-18T04:32:39Z","timestamp":1781757159275,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":26,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,30]],"date-time":"2020-06-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1593475200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,30]],"date-time":"2020-06-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1593475200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Nat Commun"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>As European heatwaves become more severe, summers in the United Kingdom (UK) are also getting warmer. The UK record temperature of 38.7\u2009\u00b0C set in Cambridge in July 2019 prompts the question of whether exceeding 40\u2009\u00b0C is now within reach. Here, we show how human influence is increasing the likelihood of exceeding 30, 35 and 40\u2009\u00b0C locally. We utilise observations to relate local to UK mean extremes and apply the resulting relationships to climate model data in a risk-based attribution methodology. We find that temperatures above 35\u2009\u00b0C are becoming increasingly common in the southeast, while by 2100 many areas in the north are likely to exceed 30\u2009\u00b0C at least once per decade. Summers which see days above 40\u2009\u00b0C somewhere in the UK have a return time of 100-300 years at present, but, without mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, this can decrease to 3.5 years by 2100.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-020-16834-0","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,30]],"date-time":"2020-06-30T14:53:19Z","timestamp":1593528799000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":71,"title":["The increasing likelihood of temperatures above 30 to 40 \u00b0C in the United Kingdom"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"11","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5661-711X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nikolaos","family":"Christidis","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2692-1417","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mark","family":"McCarthy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Peter A.","family":"Stott","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"16834_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"161","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate2145","volume":"4","author":"SI Seneviratne","year":"2014","unstructured":"Seneviratne, S. I., Donat, M., Mueller, B. & Alexander, L. V. No pause in the increase of hot temperature extremes. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 161\u2013163 (2014).","journal-title":"Nat. Clim. Change"},{"key":"16834_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"4751","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.6104","volume":"39","author":"N Christidis","year":"2019","unstructured":"Christidis, N., Mitchell, D. & Stott, P. A. Anthropogenic climate change and heat effects on health. Int. J. Climatol. 39, 4751\u20134768 (2019).","journal-title":"Int. J. Climatol."},{"key":"16834_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"539","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-009-9774-0","volume":"102","author":"N Christidis","year":"2010","unstructured":"Christidis, N., Donaldson, G. C. & Stott, P. A. Causes for the recent changes in cold-related and heat-related mortality in England and Wales. Clim. Change 102, 539\u2013553 (2010).","journal-title":"Clim. 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Weather 74, 390\u2013396 (2019).","journal-title":"Weather"},{"key":"16834_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Vautard, R. et al. Human contribution to the record-breaking July 2019 heat wave in Western Europe. World Weather Attribution report available from: https:\/\/www.worldweatherattribution.org\/human-contribution-to-the-record-breaking-july-2019-heat-wave-in-western-europe (2019).","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/aba3d4"},{"key":"16834_CR14","unstructured":"Office for National Statistics. Do summer heatwaves lead to an increase in deaths? https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/peoplepopulationandcommunity\/healthandsocialcare\/causesofdeath\/articles\/dosummerheatwavesleadtoanincreaseindeaths\/2019-10-07 (2019)."},{"key":"16834_CR15","unstructured":"Roberts, M. Summer heatwave \u2018death-spike\u2019 seen in UK. BBC News online. https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/health-49958201 (2019)."},{"key":"16834_CR16","unstructured":"Collinson, P. 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