{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,26]],"date-time":"2026-08-26T16:55:09Z","timestamp":1787763309325,"version":"build-2784847793"},"reference-count":21,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,18]],"date-time":"2021-05-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1621296000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,18]],"date-time":"2021-05-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1621296000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"name":"The VoLo Foundation and Martin Fellowship supported M. Lickley\u2019s work on this manuscript."}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Nat Commun"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are harmful ozone depleting substances and greenhouse gases. CFC production was phased-out under the Montreal Protocol, however recent studies suggest new and unexpected emissions of CFC-11. Quantifying CFC emissions requires accurate estimates of both atmospheric lifetimes and ongoing emissions from old equipment (i.e. \u2018banks\u2019). In a Bayesian framework we simultaneously infer lifetimes, banks and emissions of CFC-11, 12 and 113 using available constraints. We find lifetimes of all three gases are likely shorter than currently recommended values, suggesting that best estimates of inferred emissions are larger than recent evaluations. Our analysis indicates that bank emissions are decreasing faster than total emissions, and we estimate new, unexpected emissions during 2014-2016 were 23.2, 18.3, and 7.8 Gg\/yr for CFC-11, 12 and 113, respectively. While recent studies have focused on unexpected CFC-11 emissions, our results call for further investigation of potential sources of emissions of CFC-12 and CFC-113, along with CFC-11.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-021-23229-2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,18]],"date-time":"2021-05-18T06:04:35Z","timestamp":1621317875000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":31,"title":["Joint inference of CFC lifetimes and banks suggests previously unidentified emissions"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5810-8784","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Megan","family":"Lickley","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3289-2237","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sarah","family":"Fletcher","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2020-9253","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Matt","family":"Rigby","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2020-7581","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Susan","family":"Solomon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"23229_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2113","DOI":"10.5194\/acp-9-2113-2009","volume":"9","author":"PA Newman","year":"2009","unstructured":"Newman, P. A. et al. What would have happened to the ozone layer if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been regulated? Atmos. Chem. Phys. 9, 2113\u20132128 (2009).","journal-title":"Atmos. Chem. Phys."},{"key":"23229_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"269","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aae0061","volume":"353","author":"S Solomon","year":"2016","unstructured":"Solomon, S. et al. Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer. Sci. (80-) 353, 269\u2013274 (2016).","journal-title":"Sci. (80-)"},{"key":"23229_CR3","unstructured":"WMO: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2018, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project\u2014Report No. 58. 588 (2018)."},{"key":"23229_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"413","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-018-0106-2","volume":"557","author":"SA Montzka","year":"2018","unstructured":"Montzka, S. A. et al. An unexpected and persistent increase in global emissions of ozone-depleting CFC-11. 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