{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,11]],"date-time":"2026-11-11T21:27:41Z","timestamp":1794432461620,"version":"4.9.1"},"reference-count":50,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,1]],"date-time":"2024-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1717200000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,1]],"date-time":"2024-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1717200000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Nat Commun"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Policymakers at the federal and state level have begun to incorporate energy burden into equity goals and program evaluations, aiming to reduce energy burden below a high level of 6% for lower income households in the United States. Pairing an empirical household-level dataset spanning United States geographies together with modeled hourly energy demand curves, we show that rooftop solar reduces energy burden across a majority of adopters during our study period from a median of 3.3% to 2.6%. For low- and moderate-income adopters (at or below 80% and 120% of area median income, respectively), solar reduces median 2021 energy burden from 7.7% to 6.2%, and 4.1% to 3.3%, respectively. Importantly, solar reduces the rate of high or severe energy burden from 67% of all low-income households before adoption to 52% of households following adoption, and correspondingly from 21% to 13% for moderate-income households. Here, we show rooftop solar can support policy goals to reduce energy burden along with strategies such as weatherization and bill assistance.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-024-48967-x","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,1]],"date-time":"2024-06-01T06:01:28Z","timestamp":1717221688000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":39,"title":["Modeling the potential effects of rooftop solar on household energy burden in the United States"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"15","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8430-843X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sydney P.","family":"Forrester","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cristina Crespo","family":"Monta\u00f1\u00e9s","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Eric","family":"O\u2019Shaughnessy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4687-2309","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Galen","family":"Barbose","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"48967_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Sovacool, B. K. & Dworkin, M. H. Global Energy Justice: Problems, Principles, and Practices https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/CBO9781107323605 (2014).","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781107323605"},{"key":"48967_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Borenstein, S. Private net benefits of residential solar PV: the role of electricity tariffs, tax incentives, and rebates. J. Assoc. Environ. Resour. Econ. 4, S85\u2013S122 (2017).","DOI":"10.1086\/691978"},{"key":"48967_CR3","unstructured":"Drehobl, A., Ross, L., Ayala, R., Zaman, A. & Amann, J. How High are Household Energy Burdens? An Assessment of National and Metropolitan Energy Burden Across the United States https:\/\/www.aceee.org\/research-report\/u2006 (ACEEE, 2020)."},{"key":"48967_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kontokosta, C. E., Reina, V. J. & Bonczak, B. Energy cost burdens for low-income and minority households. J. Am. Plan. Assoc. 86, 89\u2013105 (2020).","DOI":"10.1080\/01944363.2019.1647446"},{"key":"48967_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"MacDonald, S., Winner, B., Smith, L., Juillerat, J. & Belknap, S. Bridging the rural efficiency gap: expanding access to energy efficiency upgrades in remote and high energy cost communities. Energy Effic. 13, 503\u2013521 (2020).","DOI":"10.1007\/s12053-019-09798-8"},{"key":"48967_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Rose, E. & Hawkins, B. Background Data and Statistics on Low-Income Energy Use and Burden for the Weatherization Assistance Program: Update for Fiscal Year 2020 https:\/\/weatherization.ornl.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/ORNL_TM-2020_1566.pdf (2020).","DOI":"10.2172\/1761662"},{"key":"48967_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"77","DOI":"10.1080\/10796126.2016.1148672","volume":"22","author":"D Hern\u00e1ndez","year":"2016","unstructured":"Hern\u00e1ndez, D., Jiang, Y., Carri\u00f3n, D., Phillips, D. & Aratani, Y. Housing hardship and energy insecurity among native-born and immigrant low-income families with children in the United States. J. Child. Poverty 22, 77\u201392 (2016).","journal-title":"J. Child. Poverty"},{"key":"48967_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mohr, T. M. D. Fuel poverty in the US: evidence using the 2009 Residential Energy Consumption Survey. Energy Econ. 74, 360\u2013369 (2018).","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eneco.2018.06.007"},{"key":"48967_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ma, O. et al. Low-Income Energy Affordability Data (LEAD) Tool Methodology https:\/\/www.nrel.gov\/docs\/fy19osti\/74249.pdf (2019).","DOI":"10.2172\/1545589"},{"key":"48967_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Baker, E. et al. Metrics for decision-making in energy justice. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 48, 737\u2013760 (2023).","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-environ-112621-063400"},{"key":"48967_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Barlow, J., Tapio, R. & Tarekegne, B. Advancing the state of energy equity metrics. Electr. J. 35, 107208 (2022).","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tej.2022.107208"},{"key":"48967_CR12","unstructured":"Sadhasivan, G. & Chang, S. 2019 California Low-Income Needs Assessment Final Report: Vol. 1 of 3: Summary of Key Findings https:\/\/www.cpuc.ca.gov\/-\/media\/cpuc-website\/divisions\/energy-division\/documents\/energy-efficiency\/iqap\/2019linavol1.pdf (2019)."},{"key":"48967_CR13","unstructured":"NY PSC. Case 14-M-0565: Order Adopting Low Income Program Modifications and Directing Utility Findings https:\/\/dps.ny.gov\/system\/files\/documents\/2022\/11\/order-adopting-low-income-program-modifications-and-directing-utility-filings-issued-may-20-2016.-case-14-m-0565.pdf (2016)."},{"key":"48967_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Brown, M. A., Soni, A., Doshi, A. D. & King, C. The persistence of high energy burdens: a bibliometric analysis of vulnerability, poverty, and exclusion in the United States. Energy Res. Soc. Sci. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.erss.2020.101756 (2020).","DOI":"10.1016\/j.erss.2020.101756"},{"key":"48967_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-021-27673-y","volume":"13","author":"E Scheier","year":"2022","unstructured":"Scheier, E. & Kittner, N. A measurement strategy to address disparities across household energy burdens. Nat. Commun. 13, 288 (2022).","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"key":"48967_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Teller-Elsberg, J., Sovacool, B., Smith, T. & Laine, E. Fuel poverty, excess winter deaths, and energy costs in Vermont: burdensome for whom? Energy Policy https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.enpol.2015.12.009 (2016).","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enpol.2015.12.009"},{"key":"48967_CR17","unstructured":"U.S. DOE. Justice40 Initiative https:\/\/www.energy.gov\/diversity\/justice40-initiative (2021)."},{"key":"48967_CR18","unstructured":"U.S. White House. EO 14008: Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad. https:\/\/www.directives.doe.gov\/ipt_members_area\/doe-o-436-1-departmental-sustainability-ipt\/background-documents\/executive-order-14008-tackling-the-climate-crisis-at-home-and-abroad\/at_download\/file (2021)."},{"key":"48967_CR19","unstructured":"ACEEE. The 2022 State Energy Efficiency Scorecard https:\/\/www.aceee.org\/state-policy\/scorecard (2022)."},{"key":"48967_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Reames, T. G. Targeting energy justice: Exploring spatial, racial\/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities in urban residential heating energy efficiency. Energy Policy 97, 549\u2013558 (2016).","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enpol.2016.07.048"},{"key":"48967_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Bednar, D. J., Reames, T. G. & Keoleian, G. A. The intersection of energy and justice: modeling the spatial, racial\/ethnic and socioeconomic patterns of urban residential heating consumption and efficiency in Detroit, Michigan. Energy Build. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.enbuild.2017.03.028 (2017).","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enbuild.2017.03.028"},{"key":"48967_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"584","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph14060584","volume":"14","author":"H Thomson","year":"2017","unstructured":"Thomson, H., Snell, C. & Bouzarovski, S. Health, well-being and energy poverty in Europe: a comparative study of 32 European countries. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 14, 584 (2017).","journal-title":"Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health"},{"key":"48967_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Bednar, D. J. & Reames, T. G. Recognition of and response to energy poverty in the United States. Nat. Energy https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41560-020-0582-0 (2020).","DOI":"10.1038\/s41560-020-0582-0"},{"key":"48967_CR24","unstructured":"U.S. DOE. Evaluation of the Better Buildings Neighborhood Program: Final Synthesis Report, Vol. 1 (U.S. DOE, 2015)."},{"key":"48967_CR25","unstructured":"Forrester, S., Barbose, G., Darghouth, N., O\u2019Shaughnessy, E. & Monta\u00f1\u00e9s, C. C. Solar Demographics Trends and Analysis https:\/\/emp.lbl.gov\/projects\/solar-demographics-trends-and-analysis\/ (2023)."},{"key":"48967_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Darghouth, N. R., O\u2019Shaughnessy, E., Forrester, S. & Barbose, G. Characterizing local rooftop solar adoption inequity in the US. Environ. Res. Lett. 17, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac4fdc (2022).","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac4fdc"},{"key":"48967_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Barbose, G., Darghouth, N., O\u2019Shaughnessy, E. & Forrester, S. P. Tracking the Sun: Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States https:\/\/emp.lbl.gov\/tracking-the-sun (2022).","DOI":"10.2172\/1887207"},{"key":"48967_CR28","unstructured":"Stanton, T. Solar Energy that Pays for Low-Income Customers and Communities https:\/\/pubs.naruc.org\/pub\/46965D7D-155D-0A36-315D-58319B591EB8 (2020)."},{"key":"48967_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Heeter, J., Sekar, A., Fekete, E., Shah, M. & Cook, J. J. Affordable and Accessible Solar for All: Barriers, Solutions, and On-Site Adoption Potential https:\/\/www.nrel.gov\/docs\/fy21osti\/80532.pdf (2021).","DOI":"10.2172\/1820098"},{"key":"48967_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cook, J. J. & Shah, M. Reducing Energy Burden with Solar: Colorado\u2019s Strategy and Roadmap for States https:\/\/www.nrel.gov\/docs\/fy18osti\/70965.pdf (2018).","DOI":"10.2172\/1431421"},{"key":"48967_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Kerby, J., Hardy, T., Twitchell, J., O\u2019Neil, R. & Tarekegne, B. A targeted approach to energy burden reduction measures: comparing the effects of energy storage, rooftop solar, weatherization, and energy efficiency upgrades. Energy Policy 184, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.enpol.2023.113867 (2024).","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enpol.2023.113867"},{"key":"48967_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tidemann, C., Engerer, N., Markham, F., Doran, B. & Pezzey, J. C. V. Spatial disaggregation clarifies the inequity in distributional outcomes of household solar PV installation. J. Renew. Sustain. Energy 11, 035901 (2019).","DOI":"10.1063\/1.5097424"},{"key":"48967_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Swan, L. G. & Ugursal, V. I. Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector: a review of modeling techniques. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.rser.2008.09.033 (2009).","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rser.2008.09.033"},{"key":"48967_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Zhao, H. X. & Magoul\u00e8s, F. A review on the prediction of building energy consumption. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 16, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.rser.2012.02.049 (2012).","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rser.2012.02.049"},{"key":"48967_CR35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Agdas, D. & Barooah, P. On the economics of rooftop solar PV adoption. Energy Policy 178, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.enpol.2023.113611 (2023).","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enpol.2023.113611"},{"key":"48967_CR36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-022-30146-5","volume":"13","author":"S Cong","year":"2022","unstructured":"Cong, S., Nock, D., Qiu, Y. L. & Xing, B. Unveiling hidden energy poverty using the energy equity gap. Nat. Commun. 13, 2456 (2022).","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"key":"48967_CR37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Yip, A. O., Mah, N. I., Yin, D. N. & Barber, L. B. Revealing hidden energy poverty in Hong Kong: a multi-dimensional framework for examining and understanding energy poverty. Local Environ. 25, 1\u201319 (2020).","DOI":"10.1080\/13549839.2020.1778661"},{"key":"48967_CR38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Awaworyi Churchill, S., Smyth, R. & Farrell, L. Fuel poverty and subjective wellbeing. Energy Econ. 86, 104650 (2020).","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eneco.2019.104650"},{"key":"48967_CR39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Thomson, H., Bouzarovski, S. & Snell, C. Rethinking the measurement of energy poverty in Europe: a critical analysis of indicators and data. Indoor Built Environ. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/1420326X17699260 (2017).","DOI":"10.1177\/1420326X17699260"},{"key":"48967_CR40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.socscimed.2016.08.029","volume":"167","author":"D Hern\u00e1ndez","year":"2016","unstructured":"Hern\u00e1ndez, D. Understanding \u2018energy insecurity\u2019 and why it matters to health. Soc. Sci. Med. 167, 1\u201310 (2016).","journal-title":"Soc. Sci. Med."},{"key":"48967_CR41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Agbim, C., Araya, F., Faust, K. M. & Harmon, D. Subjective versus objective energy burden: a look at drivers of different metrics and regional variation of energy poor populations. Energy Policy 144, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.enpol.2020.111616 (2020).","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enpol.2020.111616"},{"key":"48967_CR42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Herrero, S. T. Energy poverty indicators: a critical review of methods. Indoor and Built Environ. 26, 1018\u20131031 (2017).","DOI":"10.1177\/1420326X17718054"},{"key":"48967_CR43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Deller, D. Energy affordability in the EU: The risks of metric driven policies. Energy Policy 119, 168\u2013182 (2018).","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enpol.2018.03.033"},{"key":"48967_CR44","unstructured":"NREL. End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock (2022)."},{"key":"48967_CR45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wilson, E. et al. End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Methodology and Results of Model Calibration, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification https:\/\/www.nrel.gov\/docs\/fy22osti\/80889.pdf (2022).","DOI":"10.2172\/1854582"},{"key":"48967_CR46","unstructured":"NREL. System Advisor Model Version 2020.11.29 https:\/\/sam.nrel.gov\/ (2020)."},{"key":"48967_CR47","unstructured":"NREL. Photovoltaic Module Soiling Map https:\/\/www.nrel.gov\/pv\/soiling.html (n.d.)."},{"key":"48967_CR48","unstructured":"Genability. Genability Signal APIs https:\/\/www.genability.com\/signal\/ (n.d.)."},{"key":"48967_CR49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Pless, J. & van Benthem, A. A. Pass-through as a test for market power: an application to solar subsidies. Am. Econ. J. 11, 367\u2013401 (2019).","DOI":"10.1257\/app.20170611"},{"key":"48967_CR50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bielen, D., O\u2019Shaughnessy, E., Sigrin, B. & Margolis, R. Value Accrual to Customers, Installers, and Financiers in Third-Party Owned Solar PV Markets https:\/\/www.nrel.gov\/docs\/fy19osti\/70552.pdf (2019).","DOI":"10.2172\/1505551"}],"container-title":["Nature Communications"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-024-48967-x.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-024-48967-x","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-024-48967-x.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,1]],"date-time":"2024-06-01T06:02:21Z","timestamp":1717221741000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-024-48967-x"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,1]]},"references-count":50,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,12]]}},"alternative-id":["48967"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41467-024-48967-x","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.21203\/rs.3.rs-3410920\/v1","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["2041-1723"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2041-1723","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,1]]},"assertion":[{"value":"19 October 2023","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"17 May 2024","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"1 June 2024","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"The authors declare no competing interests.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"4676"}}