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We investigated retinal layer thickness changes in RRMS, primary and secondary progressive MS (PPMS, SPMS), and their prognostic value for disease activity. Here, we analyzed 2651 OCT measurements of 195 RRMS, 87 SPMS, 125 PPMS patients, and 98 controls from five German MS centers after quality control. Peripapillary and macular retinal nerve fiber layer (pRNFL, mRNFL) thickness predicted future relapses in all MS and RRMS patients while mRNFL and ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer (GCIPL) thickness predicted future MRI activity in RRMS (mRNFL, GCIPL) and PPMS (GCIPL). mRNFL thickness predicted future disability progression in PPMS. However, thickness change rates were subject to considerable amounts of measurement variability. In conclusion, retinal degeneration, most pronounced of pRNFL and GCIPL, occurs in all subtypes. Using the current state of technology, longitudinal assessments of retinal thickness may not be suitable on a single patient level.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-024-49309-7","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,19]],"date-time":"2024-06-19T09:05:06Z","timestamp":1718787906000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":20,"title":["Evolution of retinal degeneration and prediction of disease activity in relapsing and progressive multiple 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Zenodo. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.11096799","DOI":"10.5281\/zenodo.11096799"}],"container-title":["Nature Communications"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-024-49309-7.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-024-49309-7","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-024-49309-7.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,22]],"date-time":"2024-06-22T13:02:26Z","timestamp":1719061346000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-024-49309-7"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,19]]},"references-count":52,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,12]]}},"alternative-id":["49309"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41467-024-49309-7","relation":{},"ISSN":["2041-1723"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2041-1723","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,19]]},"assertion":[{"value":"20 February 2022","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"30 May 2024","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"19 June 2024","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"J.K. has received honoraria for lecturing from Biogen, Novartis, Sanofi Genzyme, Roche, Mylan and Teva, and financial research support from Sanofi Genzyme, Novartis, Roche, and Amicus Therapeutics. M.D. has received speaker honoraria from Merck. J.-I.L. has received honoraria for speaking\/consultation from Boehringer Ingelheim, Allergan, Abbvie, Novartis, Ipsen, Teva, Lilly and Daiichi-Sankyo as well as travel grants from Bayer Healthcare, Merz, Allergan, Abbvie, Teva and Ipsen outside the submitted work. J.H. reports grants from the Friedrich-Baur-Stiftung, Merck and Horizon, personal fees and non-financial support from Alexion, Horizon, Roche, Merck, Novartis, Biogen, BMS and Janssen, and non-financial support from the Guthy-Jackson Charitable Foundation and The Sumaira Foundation. T.K. has received speaker honoraria and\/or personal fees for advisory boards from Roche Pharma, Alexion\/Astra Zeneca, Horizon, Merck, Chugai and Biogen. The institution she works for has received grant support for her research from Bayer-Schering AG, Novartis and Chugai Pharma in the past. None resulted in a conflict of interest. M.K. received compensation for serving on scientific advisory boards or speaker fees from Biogen Idec, Genzyme, MedDay Pharmaceuticals, Merck Serono, Novartis, Roche, Sanofi Aventis and Teva. He has received research support from Biogen Idec and Sanofi US. C.H. has received grants and speaker honaria from Merck, Novartis, Roche. J.-P.S. has received research grants from Genzyme and honoraria for an advisory board from Alexion. H.G.Z. received research grants and speaking honoraria from Novartis. F.O. receives grants from the American Academy of Neurology, the National Multiple Sclerosis Society, and the Hertie foundation and board membership IMSVISUAL. M.R. received speaker honoraria from Novartis, Bayer Vital GmbH, Roche, Alexion, Horizon and Ipsen and travel reimbursement from Bayer Schering, Biogen Idec, Merz, Genzyme, Teva, Roche, Horizon and Merck, none related to this study. A.U.B. is cofounder and shareholder of startups Motognosis and Nocturne. He is named as inventor on several patent applications description MS serum biomarkers, perceptive visual computing, and retinal image analysis. F.P. serves as an Associate Editor for Neurology: Neuroimmunology & Neuroinflammation, reports research grants and speaker honoraria from Bayer, Teva, Genzyme, Merck, Novartis, MedImmune, Allmirall, Shire, Alexion, Chugai and is member of the steering committee of the OCTIMS study (Novartis). O.A. received grants from the German Research Foundation (DFG), Euge\u2019ne Devic European Network (EU-FP7), German Ministry of Education and Research, and the Schaufler Foundation; honoraria for lectures from Almirall, Novartis, Bayer, Genzyme, Teva, Merck Serono, Biogen, Roche and Medimmune; and received travel\/accommodation\/meeting expenses from Novartis, Bayer Schering and Merck Serono. H.-P.H. received fees for serving on steering committees from Biogen Idec, GeNeuro, Sanofi Genzyme, Merck, Novartis Pharmaceuticals, Octapharma, Opexa Therapeutics, Teva Pharmaceuticals, MedImmune, Bayer HealthCare, Forward Pharma, and Roche; fees for serving on advisory boards from Biogen Idec, Sanofi Genzyme, Merck, Novartis Pharmaceuticals, Octapharma, Opexa Therapeutics, Teva Pharmaceuticals, and Roche; and lecture fees from Biogen Idec, Sanofi Genzyme, Merck, Novartis Pharmaceuticals, Octapharma, Opexa Therapeutics, Teva Pharmaceuticals, MedImmune, and Roche. H.W. received compensation for serving on Scientific Advisory Boards\/Steering Committees for Bayer Healthcare, Biogen Idec, Sanofi Genzyme, Merck Serono, and Novartis. He has received speaker honoraria and travel support from Bayer Vital GmbH, Bayer Schering AG, Biogen, CSL Behring, EMD Serono, Fresenius Medical Care, Genzyme, Merck Serono, Omniamed, Novartis, and Sanofi Aventis. He has received compensation as a consultant from Biogen Idec, Merck Serono, Novartis, Roche, and Sanofi Genzyme. H.W. also received research support from Bayer Healthcare, Bayer Vital, Biogen Idec, Merck Serono, Novartis, Sanofi Genzyme, Sanofi US, and Teva. S.G.M. received honoraria for lecturing and travel expenses for attending meetings from Almirall, Amicus Therapeutics Germany, Bayer Health Care, Biogen, Celgene, Diamed, Genzyme, MedDay Pharmaceuticals, Merck Serono, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, ONO Pharma, Roche, Sanofi-Aventis, Chugai Pharma, QuintilesIMS, and Teva. His research is funded by the German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF), Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG), Else Kr\u00f6ner Fresenius Foundation, German Academic Exchange Service, Hertie Foundation, Interdisciplinary Center for Clinical Studies (IZKF) Muenster, German Foundation Neurology, and by Almirall, Amicus Therapeutics Germany, Biogen, Diamed, Fresenius Medical Care, Genzyme, Merck Serono, Novartis, ONO Pharma, Roche, and Teva. P.A. received honoraria for lecturing and travel expenses for attending meetings from Abbvie, Biogen, Celgene, Genzyme, Hexal, Ipsen, Lilly, Merck Serono, Merz Pharmaceuticals, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche, Sanofi-Aventis, and Teva. His research is funded by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG), EFRE-NRW, and by Abbvie, Biogen, Celgene, Merck Serono, Merz Pharmaceuticals, Novartis, and Roche. C.B., M.W., A.H., V.K., Y.U., I.E., M.N.-M., M.Z., J.I., V.H. report no competing interests.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"5243"}}