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In this prospective observational cohort, 7428 febrile outpatients were enrolled across 8 countries in Asia and Latin America and followed daily; 2230 individuals with confirmed dengue were included in the analysis, among whom 304 (14%) progressed to moderate\/severe dengue and 38 (2%) to severe dengue during follow-up. We demonstrate evolving relationships between common clinical features, WHO clinical warning signs, and simple haematological parameters, with progression. Key predictors of moderate\/severe dengue include low lymphocyte percentage, low total white blood cell count, low platelet count, and persistent vomiting and significant abdominal pain\/tenderness. Multivariable models incorporating these variables predict the risk of moderate\/severe dengue, initially with modest performance (AUC\u2009~\u20090.68), but improving subsequently as new daily data is included into the predictions (AUC\u2009~\u20090.73-0.85). 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