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Serological assays detecting IgG4 antibodies against the\n                    <jats:italic>Onchocerca volvulus<\/jats:italic>\n                    Ov16 antigen guide decision-making regarding start- and stop-mass ivermectin treatment, post-treatment and post-elimination surveillance. Transmission models are crucial for understanding anti-Ov16 IgG4 seroprevalence dynamics. Uncertainty associated with the parasite stage(s) stimulating seroconversion and duration of antibody persistence has hitherto hindered progress. We use the individual-based stochastic transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM, to test hypotheses regarding the timing of seroconversion and seroreversion. We fit the model to data from (treatment-na\u00efve) Gabon and validate it using data from Togo (four decades of control). The best-fit hypothesis is that seroconversion is elicited by near-patent\/patent infection. The duration of antibody persistence remains uncertain. Our findings support the use of mechanistic transmission models to refine serological thresholds for start- and stop-treatment, and aid interpretation of post-treatment and post-elimination surveillance serological signals.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-026-76562-9","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,19]],"date-time":"2026-08-19T17:15:01Z","timestamp":1787159701000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Modelling anti-Ov16 seroprevalence for the control and elimination of onchocerciasis"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"17","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0006-2120-4629","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Aditya","family":"Ramani","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0732-1600","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jacob N.","family":"Stapley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1710-6237","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Matthew A.","family":"Dixon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jonathan I. 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