{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,22]],"date-time":"2026-10-22T16:24:32Z","timestamp":1792686272179,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":71,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"8116","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,27]],"date-time":"2026-05-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1779840000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.springernature.com\/gp\/researchers\/text-and-data-mining"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,27]],"date-time":"2026-05-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1779840000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.springernature.com\/gp\/researchers\/text-and-data-mining"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Nature"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,28]]},"DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-026-10543-2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,27]],"date-time":"2026-05-27T15:01:35Z","timestamp":1779894095000},"page":"1069-1077","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Rising global hail damage potential in a warming world"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"653","author":[{"given":"Shiyi","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9697-8622","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Qinghong","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2036-0666","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"John T.","family":"Allen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiangyu","family":"Lin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"10543_CR1","unstructured":"Munich Re. Hail, tornadoes, flash floods: losses from thunderstorms on the rise. Munich Re https:\/\/www.munichre.com\/en\/risks\/natural-disasters\/thunderstorms-hail-tornados.html. (2025)."},{"key":"10543_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"262","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-025-02246-9","volume":"15","author":"E Bevacqua","year":"2025","unstructured":"Bevacqua, E., Schleussner, C. & Zscheischler, J. A year above 1.5 \u00b0C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit. Nat. Clim. Change 15, 262\u2013265 (2025).","journal-title":"Nat. Clim. Change"},{"key":"10543_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"266","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-025-02247-8","volume":"15","author":"A Cannon","year":"2025","unstructured":"Cannon, A. Twelve months at 1.5 \u00b0C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement threshold. Nat. Clim. Change 15, 266\u2013269 (2025).","journal-title":"Nat. Clim. Change"},{"key":"10543_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"245","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atmosres.2014.07.004","volume":"158","author":"J Dessens","year":"2015","unstructured":"Dessens, J., Berthet, C. & Sanchez, J. Change in hailstone size distributions with an increase in the melting level height. Atmos. Res. 158, 245\u2013253 (2015).","journal-title":"Atmos. Res."},{"key":"10543_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"179","DOI":"10.1175\/JAS-D-21-0054.1","volume":"79","author":"Y Lin","year":"2022","unstructured":"Lin, Y. & Kumjian, M. R. Influences of CAPE on hail production in simulated supercell storms. J. Atmos. Sci. 79, 179\u2013204 (2022).","journal-title":"J. Atmos. Sci."},{"key":"10543_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"641","DOI":"10.1175\/JAS-D-16-0066.1","volume":"74","author":"EJ Dennis","year":"2017","unstructured":"Dennis, E. J. & Kumjian, M. R. The impact of vertical wind shear on hail growth in simulated supercells. J. Atmos. Sci. 74, 641\u2013663 (2017).","journal-title":"J. Atmos. Sci."},{"key":"10543_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"213","DOI":"10.1038\/s43017-020-00133-9","volume":"2","author":"TH Raupach","year":"2021","unstructured":"Raupach, T. H. et al. The effects of climate change on hailstorms. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 2, 213\u2013226 (2021).","journal-title":"Nat. Rev. Earth Environ."},{"key":"10543_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"516","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate3321","volume":"7","author":"JC Brimelow","year":"2017","unstructured":"Brimelow, J. C., Burrows, W. R. & Hanesiak, J. M. The changing hail threat over North America in response to anthropogenic climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 516\u2013522 (2017).","journal-title":"Nat. Clim. Change"},{"key":"10543_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e2025GL117676","DOI":"10.1029\/2025GL117676","volume":"52","author":"TH Raupach","year":"2025","unstructured":"Raupach, T. H. & Aldridge, J. Changes in hail damage potential in major Australian cities with global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 52, e2025GL117676 (2025).","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"10543_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5493","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-18-0740.1","volume":"32","author":"RJ Trapp","year":"2019","unstructured":"Trapp, R. J., Hoogewind, K. A. & Lasher-Trapp, S. Future changes in hail occurrence in the United States determined through convection-permitting dynamical downscaling. J. Clim. 32, 5493\u20135509 (2019).","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"10543_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"185","DOI":"10.1038\/s41612-024-00728-9","volume":"7","author":"VA Gensini","year":"2024","unstructured":"Gensini, V. A. et al. Hailstone size dichotomy in a warming climate. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 7, 185 (2024).","journal-title":"npj Clim. Atmos. Sci."},{"key":"10543_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e2025GL114811","DOI":"10.1029\/2025GL114811","volume":"52","author":"I Thurnherr","year":"2025","unstructured":"Thurnherr, I., Cui, R., Velasquez, P., Wernli, H. & Sch\u00e4r, C. The effect of 3\u00b0C global warming on hail over Europe. Geophys. Res. Lett. 52, e2025GL114811 (2025).","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"10543_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-025-62780-0","volume":"16","author":"A Kahraman","year":"2025","unstructured":"Kahraman, A., Kendon, E. J., Fowler, H. J. & Short, C. J. Future changes in severe hail across Europe, including regional emergence of warm-type thunderstorms. Nat. Commun. 16, 8438 (2025).","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"key":"10543_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-025-63028-7","volume":"16","author":"Q Zhang","year":"2025","unstructured":"Zhang, Q. et al. Climate impacts and future trends of hailstorms in China based on millennial records. Nat. Commun. 16, 8000 (2025).","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"key":"10543_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"35","DOI":"10.1038\/s41612-021-00190-x","volume":"4","author":"M Taszarek","year":"2021","unstructured":"Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Marchio, M. & Brooks, H. E. Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 4, 35 (2021).","journal-title":"npj Clim. Atmos. Sci."},{"key":"10543_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"19719","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0705494104","volume":"104","author":"R Trapp","year":"2007","unstructured":"Trapp, R. et al. Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 19719\u201319723 (2007).","journal-title":"Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"10543_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"30","DOI":"10.1038\/s41612-019-0083-7","volume":"2","author":"AT R\u00e4dler","year":"2019","unstructured":"R\u00e4dler, A. T. et al. Frequency of severe thunderstorms across Europe expected to increase in the 21st century due to rising instability. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 2, 30 (2019).","journal-title":"npj Clim. Atmos. Sci."},{"key":"10543_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3848","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-13-00426.1","volume":"27","author":"J Allen","year":"2014","unstructured":"Allen, J., Karoly, D. & Walsh, K. Future Australian severe thunderstorm environments. Part II: the influence of a strongly warming climate on convective environments. J. Clim. 27, 3848\u20133868 (2014).","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"10543_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"16361","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1307758110","volume":"110","author":"NS Diffenbaugh","year":"2013","unstructured":"Diffenbaugh, N. S., Scherer, M. & Trapp, R. J. Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 16361\u201316366 (2013).","journal-title":"Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"10543_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"771","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-020-0825-x","volume":"10","author":"AF Prein","year":"2020","unstructured":"Prein, A. F. & Heymsfield, A. J. Increased melting level height impacts surface precipitation phase and intensity. Nat. Clim. Change 10, 771\u2013776 (2020).","journal-title":"Nat. Clim. Change"},{"key":"10543_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"231","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.3197","volume":"144","author":"M Kunz","year":"2018","unstructured":"Kunz, M. et al. The severe hailstorm in southwest Germany on 28 July 2013: characteristics, impacts and meteorological conditions. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 144, 231\u2013250 (2018).","journal-title":"Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc."},{"key":"10543_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e2019RG000665","DOI":"10.1029\/2019RG000665","volume":"58","author":"JT Allen","year":"2020","unstructured":"Allen, J. T. et al. Understanding hail in the Earth system. Rev. Geophys. 58, e2019RG000665 (2020).","journal-title":"Rev. Geophys."},{"key":"10543_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"161","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-009-9597-z","volume":"96","author":"SA Changnon","year":"2009","unstructured":"Changnon, S. A. Increasing major hail losses in the U.S. Clim. Change 96, 161\u2013166 (2009).","journal-title":"Clim. Change"},{"key":"10543_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"527","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-23-0181.1","volume":"37","author":"H Mallinson","year":"2024","unstructured":"Mallinson, H., Lasher-Trapp, S., Trapp, J., Woods, M. & Orendorf, S. Hailfall in a possible future climate using a pseudo\u2013global warming approach: hail characteristics and mesoscale influences. J. Clim. 37, 527\u2013549 (2024).","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"10543_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2021JD035017","DOI":"10.1029\/2021JD035017","volume":"126","author":"RJ Trapp","year":"2021","unstructured":"Trapp, R. J., Woods, M. J., Lasher-Trapp, S. G. & Grover, M. A. Alternative implementations of the \u201cpseudo-global-warming\u201d methodology for event-based simulations. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 126, 2021JD035017 (2021).","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res. Atmos."},{"key":"10543_CR26","unstructured":"Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021)."},{"key":"10543_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e2023GL107632","DOI":"10.1029\/2023GL107632","volume":"51","author":"ML Mart\u00edn","year":"2024","unstructured":"Mart\u00edn, M. L. et al. Major role of marine heatwave and anthropogenic climate change on a giant hail event in Spain. Geophys. Res. Lett. 51, e2023GL107632 (2024).","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"10543_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"547","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-D-14-00123.1","volume":"96","author":"GM Lackmann","year":"2015","unstructured":"Lackmann, G. M. Hurricane Sandy before 1900 and after 2100. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 96, 547\u2013560 (2015).","journal-title":"Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc."},{"key":"10543_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1217","DOI":"10.1175\/JAS-D-24-0146.1","volume":"82","author":"S Zhang","year":"2025","unstructured":"Zhang, S. et al. How are large hailstones produced in five distinct potential severe hailstorm environments? J. Atmos. Sci. 82, 1217\u20131236 (2025).","journal-title":"J. Atmos. Sci."},{"key":"10543_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"61","DOI":"10.1175\/WAF-D-18-0024.1","volume":"34","author":"RD Adams-Selin","year":"2019","unstructured":"Adams-Selin, R. D. et al. Evolution of WRF-HAILCAST during the 2014\u201316 NOAA\/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments. Weather Forecast. 34, 61\u201379 (2019).","journal-title":"Weather Forecast."},{"key":"10543_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"37","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atmosres.2007.06.006","volume":"87","author":"LM Leslie","year":"2008","unstructured":"Leslie, L. M., Leplastrier, M. & Buckley, B. W. Estimating future trends in severe hailstorms over the Sydney Basin: a climate modelling study. Atmos. Res. 87, 37\u201351 (2008).","journal-title":"Atmos. Res."},{"key":"10543_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e2021EF002277","DOI":"10.1029\/2021EF002277","volume":"9","author":"C Lepore","year":"2021","unstructured":"Lepore, C., Abernathey, R., Henderson, N., Allen, J. T. & Tippett, M. K. Future global convective environments in CMIP6 models. Earth\u2019s Future 9, e2021EF002277 (2021).","journal-title":"Earth\u2019s Future"},{"key":"10543_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"67","DOI":"10.1175\/MWR-D-23-0233.1","volume":"153","author":"R Adams-Selin","year":"2024","unstructured":"Adams-Selin, R. The quasi-stochastic nature of hail growth: hail trajectory clusters in simulations of the Kingfisher, Oklahoma, hailstorm. Mon. Weather Rev. 153, 67\u201387 (2024).","journal-title":"Mon. Weather Rev."},{"key":"10543_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e2021GL095485","DOI":"10.1029\/2021GL095485","volume":"48","author":"Z Zhou","year":"2021","unstructured":"Zhou, Z., Zhang, Q., Allen, J. T., Ni, X. & Ng, C.-P. How many types of severe hailstorm environments are there globally? Geophys. Res. Lett. 48, e2021GL095485 (2021).","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"10543_CR35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3693","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-25-3693-2025","volume":"25","author":"KP Brennan","year":"2025","unstructured":"Brennan, K. P., Thurnherr, I., Sprenger, M. & Wernli, H. Insights from hailstorm track analysis in European climate change simulations. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 25, 3693\u20133712 (2025).","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"10543_CR36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2025","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-19-0461.1","volume":"33","author":"J Chen","year":"2020","unstructured":"Chen, J., Dai, A., Zhang, Y. & Rasmussen, K. L. Changes in convective available potential energy and convective inhibition under global warming. J. Clim. 33, 2025\u20132050 (2020).","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"10543_CR37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"203","DOI":"10.1016\/S0169-8095(03)00052-8","volume":"67","author":"R Fraile","year":"2003","unstructured":"Fraile, R., Castro, A., L\u00f3pez, L., Sanchez, J. & Palencia, C. The influence of melting on hailstone size distribution. Atmos. Res. 67, 203\u2013213 (2003).","journal-title":"Atmos. Res."},{"key":"10543_CR38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"4973","DOI":"10.1175\/2010JCLI3600.1","volume":"23","author":"B Xie","year":"2010","unstructured":"Xie, B., Zhang, Q. & Wang, Y. Observed characteristics of hail size in four regions in China during 1980\u20132005. J. Clim. 23, 4973\u20134982 (2010).","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"10543_CR39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"125","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate1344","volume":"2","author":"K Mahoney","year":"2012","unstructured":"Mahoney, K., Alexander, M. A., Thompson, G., Barsugli, J. J. & Scott, J. D. Changes in hail and flood risk in high-resolution simulations over Colorado\u2019s mountains. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 125\u2013131 (2012).","journal-title":"Nat. Clim. Change"},{"key":"10543_CR40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"6183","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-23-0745.1","volume":"37","author":"EN Tinney","year":"2024","unstructured":"Tinney, E. N., Homeyer, C. R., Bedka, K. M. & Scarino, B. R. The response of tropopause-overshooting convection over North America to climate change. J. Clim. 37, 6183\u20136200 (2024).","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"10543_CR41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"341","DOI":"10.1016\/j.reseneeco.2009.10.004","volume":"32","author":"WJW Botzen","year":"2010","unstructured":"Botzen, W. J. W., Bouwer, L. M. & van den Bergh, J. C. J. M. Climate change and hailstorm damage: empirical evidence and implications for agriculture and insurance. Resour. Energy Econ. 32, 341\u2013362 (2010).","journal-title":"Resour. Energy Econ."},{"key":"10543_CR42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2817","DOI":"10.1175\/JAMC-D-18-0109.1","volume":"57","author":"M Li","year":"2018","unstructured":"Li, M., Zhang, D.-L., Sun, J. & Zhang, Q. A statistical analysis of hail events and their environmental conditions in China during 2008\u201315. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 57, 2817\u20132833 (2018).","journal-title":"J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol."},{"key":"10543_CR43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"10081","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-16-0885.1","volume":"30","author":"KA Hoogewind","year":"2017","unstructured":"Hoogewind, K. A., Baldwin, M. E. & Trapp, R. J. The impact of climate change on hazardous convective weather in the United States: insight from high-resolution dynamical downscaling. J. Clim. 30, 10081\u201310100 (2017).","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"10543_CR44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.3958","volume":"35","author":"M Sanderson","year":"2014","unstructured":"Sanderson, M. et al. Projected changes in hailstorms during the 21st century over the UK. Int. J. Climatol. 35, 15\u201324 (2014).","journal-title":"Int. J. Climatol."},{"key":"10543_CR45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2693","DOI":"10.1175\/JAMC-D-17-0065.1","volume":"56","author":"X Ni","year":"2017","unstructured":"Ni, X., Liu, C., Cecil, D. J. & Zhang, Q. On the detection of hail using satellite passive microwave radiometers and precipitation radar. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 56, 2693\u20132709 (2017).","journal-title":"J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol."},{"key":"10543_CR46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2037","DOI":"10.1175\/JAMC-D-25-0053.1","volume":"64","author":"S Bang","year":"2025","unstructured":"Bang, S., Scarino, B., Itterly, K., Bedka, K. & Cecil, D. Challenges in satellite remote sensing of hail: evaluating IR and passive-microwave satellite hail retrievals using aqua observations and a deep neural network. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 64, 2037\u20132058 (2025).","journal-title":"J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol."},{"key":"10543_CR47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1833","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-23-0517.1","volume":"37","author":"M Andrews","year":"2024","unstructured":"Andrews, M. et al. Climatology of the elevated mixed layer over the contiguous United States and northern Mexico using ERA5: 1979\u20132021. J. Clim. 37, 1833\u20131851 (2024).","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"10543_CR48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1999","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.3803","volume":"146","author":"H Hersbach","year":"2020","unstructured":"Hersbach, H. et al. The ERA5 global reanalysis. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 146, 1999\u20132049 (2020).","journal-title":"Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc."},{"key":"10543_CR49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"296","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-D-20-0004.1","volume":"102","author":"M Taszarek","year":"2021","unstructured":"Taszarek, M., Allen, J., Brooks, H., Pilguj, N. & Czernecki, B. Differing trends in United States and European severe thunderstorm environments in a warming climate. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 102, 296\u2013322 (2021).","journal-title":"Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc."},{"key":"10543_CR50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3211","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-20-0484.1","volume":"34","author":"M Taszarek","year":"2021","unstructured":"Taszarek, M. et al. Comparison of convective parameters derived from ERA5 and MERRA-2 with rawinsonde data over Europe and North America. J. Clim. 34, 3211\u20133237 (2021).","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"10543_CR51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2973","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-15-2973-2022","volume":"15","author":"R D\u00f6scher","year":"2022","unstructured":"D\u00f6scher, R. et al. The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6. Geosci. Model Dev. 15, 2973\u20133020 (2022).","journal-title":"Geosci. Model Dev."},{"key":"10543_CR52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1937","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-9-1937-2016","volume":"9","author":"V Eyring","year":"2016","unstructured":"Eyring, V. et al. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 1937\u20131958 (2016).","journal-title":"Geosci. Model Dev."},{"key":"10543_CR53","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3461","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-9-3461-2016","volume":"9","author":"BC O\u2019Neill","year":"2016","unstructured":"O\u2019Neill, B. C. et al. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3461\u20133482 (2016).","journal-title":"Geosci. Model Dev."},{"key":"10543_CR54","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"591","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0450(1968)007<0591:PIMADC>2.0.CO;2","volume":"7","author":"PB MacCready Jr","year":"1968","unstructured":"MacCready, P. B. Jr & Takeuchi, D. M. Precipitation initiation mechanisms and droplet characteristics of some convective cloud cores. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 7, 591\u2013602 (1968).","journal-title":"J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol."},{"key":"10543_CR55","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"278","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0469(1973)030<0278:COHGAT>2.0.CO;2","volume":"30","author":"AS Dennis","year":"1973","unstructured":"Dennis, A. S. & Musil, D. J. Calculations of hailstone growth and trajectories in a simple cloud model. J. Atmos. Sci. 30, 278\u2013288 (1973).","journal-title":"J. Atmos. Sci."},{"key":"10543_CR56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"English, M. in Alberta Hailstorms. Meteorological Monographs Vol. 14, 37\u201398 (American Meteorological Society, 1973).","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-935704-32-4_2"},{"key":"10543_CR57","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1625","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-D-15-00309.1","volume":"98","author":"WG Blumberg","year":"2017","unstructured":"Blumberg, W. G. et al. SHARPpy: an open-source sounding analysis toolkit for the atmospheric sciences. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 98, 1625\u20131636 (2017).","journal-title":"Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc."},{"key":"10543_CR58","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"947","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-24-0165.1","volume":"38","author":"D Gopalakrishnan","year":"2025","unstructured":"Gopalakrishnan, D., Cuervo-Lopez, C., Allen, J. T., Trapp, R. J. & Robinson, E. A comprehensive evaluation of biases in convective storm parameters in CMIP6 models over North America. J. Clim. 38, 947\u2013971 (2025).","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"10543_CR59","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2329","DOI":"10.1175\/JAMC-D-18-0334.1","volume":"58","author":"J Grieser","year":"2019","unstructured":"Grieser, J. & Hill, M. How to express hail intensity\u2014modeling the hailstone size distribution. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 58, 2329\u20132345 (2019).","journal-title":"J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol."},{"key":"10543_CR60","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"405","DOI":"10.1175\/JAS-D-19-0185.1","volume":"77","author":"A Heymsfield","year":"2020","unstructured":"Heymsfield, A. et al. CORRIGENDUM. J. Atmos. Sci. 77, 405\u2013412 (2020).","journal-title":"J. Atmos. Sci."},{"key":"10543_CR61","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3861","DOI":"10.1175\/JAS-D-18-0035.1","volume":"75","author":"A Heymsfield","year":"2018","unstructured":"Heymsfield, A., Szak\u00e1ll, M., Jost, A., Giammanco, I. & Wright, R. A comprehensive observational study of graupel and hail terminal velocity, mass flux, and kinetic energy. J. Atmos. Sci. 75, 3861\u20133885 (2018).","journal-title":"J. Atmos. Sci."},{"key":"10543_CR62","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep42310","volume":"7","author":"Q Zhang","year":"2017","unstructured":"Zhang, Q., Ni, X. & Zhang, F. Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years. Sci. Rep. 7, 42310 (2017).","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"10543_CR63","unstructured":"Schaefer, J. T. & Edwards, R. The SPC tornado\/severe thunderstorm database. In Preprints, 11th Conf. on Applied Climatology 6.11 (American Meteorological Society, 1999)."},{"key":"10543_CR64","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"494","DOI":"10.1002\/met.1394","volume":"21","author":"M Paulikas","year":"2014","unstructured":"Paulikas, M. Examining population bias relative to severe thunderstorm hazard reporting trends in the Atlanta, GA metropolitan region. Meteorol. Appl. 21, 494\u2013503 (2014).","journal-title":"Meteorol. Appl."},{"key":"10543_CR65","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"875","DOI":"10.1175\/JAMC-D-17-0208.1","volume":"57","author":"X Li","year":"2018","unstructured":"Li, X. et al. Climatology of hail frequency and size in China, 1980\u20132015. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 57, 875\u2013887 (2018).","journal-title":"J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol."},{"key":"10543_CR66","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Zhang, S. Data for global hailstone under historical and future scenarios. figshare https:\/\/doi.org\/10.6084\/m9.figshare.30103471 (2026).","DOI":"10.6084\/m9.figshare.30103471"},{"key":"10543_CR67","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Zhang, S. The raw hailstone growth trajectory for global hailstone under historical and future scenarios (part 1). Zenodo https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.18152366 (2025).","DOI":"10.5281\/zenodo.18152366"},{"key":"10543_CR68","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Zhang, S. The raw hailstone growth trajectory for global hailstone under historical and future scenarios (part 2). Zenodo https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.18161078 (2025).","DOI":"10.5281\/zenodo.18161078"},{"key":"10543_CR69","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Zhang, S. The raw hailstone growth trajectory for global hailstone under historical and future scenarios (part 4). Zenodo https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.18168495 (2026).","DOI":"10.5281\/zenodo.18168495"},{"key":"10543_CR70","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Zhang, S. The raw hailstone growth trajectory for global hailstone under historical and future scenarios (part 3). Zenodo https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.18246083 (2026).","DOI":"10.5281\/zenodo.18246083"},{"key":"10543_CR71","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Zhang, S. Code for global hailstone under historical and future scenarios. figshare https:\/\/doi.org\/10.6084\/m9.figshare.30103474 (2026).","DOI":"10.6084\/m9.figshare.30103474"}],"container-title":["Nature"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-026-10543-2.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-026-10543-2","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-026-10543-2.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,27]],"date-time":"2026-05-27T15:01:38Z","timestamp":1779894098000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-026-10543-2"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,27]]},"references-count":71,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8116","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,28]]}},"alternative-id":["10543"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41586-026-10543-2","relation":{},"ISSN":["0028-0836","1476-4687"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0028-0836","type":"print"},{"value":"1476-4687","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,27]]},"assertion":[{"value":"16 June 2025","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"14 April 2026","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"27 May 2026","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"The authors declare no competing interests.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}]}}