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Globalization in trade and travel can lead to the importation of these viruses, but climatic conditions strongly affect the efficiency of transmission in local settings. In order to direct preparedness for future outbreaks, it is necessary to anticipate global regions that could become suitable for Chikungunya transmission. Here, we present global correlative niche models for autochthonous Chikungunya transmission. These models were used as the basis for projections under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. In a further step, hazard maps, which account for population densities, were produced. The baseline models successfully delineate current areas of active Chikungunya transmission. Projections under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios suggest the likelihood of expansion of transmission-suitable areas in many parts of the world, including China, sub-Saharan Africa, South America, the United States and continental Europe. The models presented here can be used to inform public health preparedness planning in a highly interconnected world.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-017-03566-3","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,6,13]],"date-time":"2017-06-13T07:29:02Z","timestamp":1497338942000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":117,"title":["Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21st century"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"7","author":[{"given":"Nils B.","family":"Tjaden","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4689-4583","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jonathan E.","family":"Suk","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dominik","family":"Fischer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephanie M.","family":"Thomas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6456-4628","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Carl","family":"Beierkuhnlein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jan C.","family":"Semenza","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,6,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"3566_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"306","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(07)70091-9","volume":"7","author":"D Mavalankar","year":"2007","unstructured":"Mavalankar, D., Shastri, P. & Raman, P. Chikungunya epidemic in India: a major public-health disaster. Lancet Infect. Dis. \n                           7, 306\u2013307, doi:10.1016\/S1473-3099(07)70091-9 (2007).","journal-title":"Lancet Infect. Dis."},{"key":"3566_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"319","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(07)70107-X","volume":"7","author":"G Pialoux","year":"2007","unstructured":"Pialoux, G., Ga\u00fcz\u00e8re, B. A., Jaur\u00e9guiberry, S. & Strobel, M. Chikungunya, an epidemic arbovirosis. Lancet Infect. Dis. \n                           7, 319\u2013327, doi:10.1016\/S1473-3099(07)70107-X (2007).","journal-title":"Lancet Infect. Dis."},{"key":"3566_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1840","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(07)61779-6","volume":"370","author":"G Rezza","year":"2007","unstructured":"Rezza, G. et al. Infection with Chikungunya virus in Italy: an outbreak in a temperate region. Lancet \n                           370, 1840\u20131846, doi:10.1016\/S0140-6736(07)61779-6 (2007).","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"3566_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"910","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1705.101873","volume":"17","author":"M Grandadam","year":"2011","unstructured":"Grandadam, M. et al. Chikungunya virus, southeastern France. Emerging Infect. Dis. \n                           17, 910\u2013913, doi:10.3201\/eid1705.101873 (2011).","journal-title":"Emerging Infect. Dis."},{"key":"3566_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Roiz, D., Bouss\u00e8s, P., Simard, F., Paupy, C. & Fontenille, D. Autochthonous Chikungunya transmission and extreme climate events in southern France. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 9, 10.1371\/journal.pntd.0003854 (2015).","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0003854"},{"key":"3566_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"493","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1803.110034","volume":"18","author":"D Wu","year":"2012","unstructured":"Wu, D. et al. 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